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Expert Yuri Shafranik’s strong belief Russia should lead the climate change dialogue

Expert Yuri Shafranik's strong belief Russia should lead the climate change dialogue

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Photo by Guillaume Falco: Pexels

Yuri Shafranik, Russia's international expert on energy matters believes his country should take the lead on the climate change agenda, so essential for the world's populations and the planet. He thinks that Russia should set the global climate agenda because of its geography and vast natural resources.

Yuri Shafranik feels it is the Federation's duty to set the climate agenda, not particularly in relation to the narrow aspect of hydrocarbons but for the well-being of every person and the diminishing animal species of the world and the vandalism that is deforestation. He reminds us that this applies to the very parameters of what we breathe and drink and, of course, what we will be breathing and consuming in the future. Its importance right now is unquestionable.

Yuri Shafranik is convinced there is no other platform out there to get the message across like the International Energy Forum, a potentially prime contributor to the climate change agenda. Says Mr. Shafranik: "It would be good to see the IEF raised to a completely different status, not in terms of participants, but of the issues discussed - but those discussions should not stop on the hydrocarbon matter alone."

He adds that there are always fluctuations in oil during a short period of time and that since 2014 there has not been any real investment in the oil industry, as had been the case before. In recent times, large world companies have been witnessed selling their oil resources. This is a very serious process, notes Mr. Shafranik, explaining: "According to the International Energy Agency's latest analytical prediction, the price will drop to $40 a barrel by 2030 while oil production will not grow by any significant degree, possibly by a maximum of 3-5%."

He highlights that, according to Russian analysts, oil price fluctuations will be, on average, $60 to $80 a barrel, which will likely continue on to 2030. But it's not written in stone, he adds. "It could drop to $40. For example, if OPEC Plus will not come to an agreement anytime soon, and the price may go up or down."

Yuri Shafranik feels that is why financial investment in oil and gas is a very serious factor, as any oil or gas project is always capital-intensive and long-term, for at least 25 years. Companies like Gazprom, Rosneft, or Exxon face a dilemma when deciding whether to invest or not. "Whatever the outcome, it is for the quarter of a century - which means that people in these companies must relate to some kind of forecast when making a decision. Consequently, it's inevitable that any investment swings will certainly affect the price and the volume of production,” he concludes.
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