March Madness is quickly approaching, but are you ready to pick the bracket that will win you bragging rights among your friends? Well if not, you better get ready because selection Sunday is on March 13. This year will be tough to pick a winner because no team has truly dominated the competition this year.
The number one spot has changed every few weeks. No team has successfully held the number one spot for more than four weeks. The only team to do so has been Michigan State. Even with all the uncertainty that each year brings, there are some few helpful statistics about the first round that can help you pick your bracket to obtain those bragging rights with your friends.
For me, I am trying to defeat my girlfriend’s mom, who I am currently 0-1 against.
#1 Vs. #16
For starters the #1 seed has never lost to the #16 seed in the first round, so whatever you do, pick the #1 seed. Although there is a chance that they can lose, the odds favor the #1 seed. In the event the #1 team does lose this year, I would like to give my deepest condolences for giving you terrible advice.
#2 Vs. #15
The #2 seed has won 96 percent of the time to the #15 seed, in the first round. Three of which have happened in the past three years, twice in 2012 and once in 2013. However, between 2002-2011 the #15 seed was not upset. It is uncommon that the #15 seed loses in the first round, but if you feel good about the #15, I say why not pick them.
#3 Vs. #14
The #3 seed has defeated #14 seed 85 percent of the time in the first round. Since 2005 there has been seven upsets, two of which came last year in the tournament. Some of the best teams this year have been shaky and it wouldn't surprise if a #3 seed was upset by a #14 seed led by a senior team. Again, if you feel really good about a #14 seed team, might as well go for it. It's more fun when you pick an upset anyways because then you feel like a basketball genius for a brief period of time.
#4 Vs. #13
The winning percentage for the #4 seed is 79 percent against the #13 seed in the first round. The past two years the #4 seed has survived the upset alert. However, between 2005-2013 a #13 seed has upset the #4 seed, except for 2007. The #4 seed has withstood the upset the past two years, but will it be different this year?
#5 Vs. #12
Since March Madness has started, the #5 seed has won their game against the #12 seed 67 percent of the time, in the first round. Between 2005-2015 the #5 seed was upset by the #12, except for 2007. During that ten year span on three occasions: 2009, 2012, 2013, the #12 seed won 3 out of the 4 games against the #5 seed, in the first round. It would be wise to pick at least one #5 Vs. #12 upset game. If a 2007 tournament happens where no #5 team gets upset, again, I would like to express my deepest condolences for the advice I give.
#6 vs. #11
The #6 has beaten the #11 seed 67 percent of the time, in the first round. For the past ten years 2005-2015 there has been an upset. In this span the #12 time has won two out of the four, six times, one out of the four, four times, and three out of the four, one time. Since there has been an upset the past 10 years, it would be beneficial to you to pick at least one upset, if not two.
#7 Vs. #10
In the first round, the #7 seed wins 60 percent of the time. From 2005-2015 the #7 seed has been upset by the #10 seed, except for 2007. The past three tournaments have only had one #7 seed out of the four have been upset. The odds again are telling you to try to choose at least one upset.
#8 Vs. #9
The #8 seed unsuspectingly wins only 47 percent against the #9 seed, in the first round. This is one of the hardest to pick because both teams are good. Between 2005-2015 the #8 team has been upset by the #9 seed, except for last year, 2015. This one is so hard to pick that honestly flipping a coin might be the most beneficial strategy here.
Every year it seems as though the unexpected happens. Cinderella teams like Butler, Wichita State, VCU, George Mason, and many more make deep runs into the tournament, ultimately breaking most of our bracket. However, we always seem to be cheering for those teams by the end. The best advice I can give you for your bracket is to pick some upsets because they always happen and go with your gut.
This March Madness should bring just as much excitement and disbelief as all the other ones have provided.
