Mason Saunders AKA Madison Bumgarner is known as arguably the most dominant postseason pitcher we have ever seen. In 36 innings of World Series baseball, Bumgarner as only given up 1 earned run over the course of 3 different trips. With a 2.11 ERA in the playoffs, overall.
Bumgarner is a warrior through his style of play and mentality. Whether it's pitching over 200 innings six times in the regular season, or receiving the ball on short rest in the World Series, we know Madison Bumgarner has the skills and intangibles to be the ace of championship rotation.
But what if Bumgarner continues his decline from last season? What would that mean for the team's success in 2020 and beyond?
Bumgarner is coming off arguably the worst season of his career. He had a career worst in ERA (3.90) and Home Runs Allowed (30).
Those are two areas that the D'backs as a team need to work on in 2020. D'backs pitchers gave up the 6th most Home Runs Allowed (220) and were 7th in team ERA (4.25) in the National League in 2019.
D'backs were middle of the pack in those two key areas, so if Bumgarner continues the decline we saw from him in 2019, those two areas will look even worse for the D'backs as a team.
Bumgarner is entering both his 12th season in baseball and his 30's. So even though he is young from a worldly perspective, he has a lot of mileage on his arm. In case you didn't know, Bumgarner was 19 when he made his debut. When you combine that with his 162 game average of pitching 218 innings every season, that is a lot of wear and tear.
Pitchers can typically still be highly effective until age 35, but this past season showed us that Bumgarner might already be looking down the proverbial hill.
The 5-year, $85-million deal was a great bargain deal for someone of Bumgarners elk. Even if he declines, the contract won't be too much of an albatross considering there are 23 other starting pitchers making more than him. So at least the contract won't be one that hampers the team's ability to do other moves financially.
But it might hurt them on the field.
Bumgarner is expected to be the tone-setter and the ace of the staff. All the starting pitchers on the D'backs are looking up to Bumgarner for guidance and leadership. I have no doubt that Bumgarner will come through in those areas.
He is the kind of player and person to take the younger athletes under his wings and mentor them. But how good can the D'backs team be if your tone-setter isn't performing like he is suppose to?
I have no doubt Bumgarner will be a positive influence on the locker room through his personality, but the team needs his performance to match his intangibles.
The D'backs don't really have any guys you can trust right now to give the ball to in a game 7 of a World Series outside of Bumgarner. We are still waiting for Robbie Ray to revert back to his 2017 form, we haven't seen a full season from Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Taylor Clarke, or Alex Young, and I'm not a believer in Merrill Kelly or Mike Leake having a resurgence in their mid-30's.
Bumgarner is the only guy with a pedigree of dominance both in the regular season and playoffs. He's the only one we know that can be consistent over the course of a full season. There's a lot of question marks surrounding the pitching staff and Bumgarner is expected to be the glue that holds a lot of the issues together. But if Bumgarner is even worst than he was in 2019 than I don't know how the D'backs team will be expected to contend for the playoffs.
There will be a lot off eggs put in the baskets of unproven youngsters, and over the hill veterans if Bumgarner can't perform like he did in San Fran for at least the first half of his contract. If one year into Bumgarner's contract we can confirm he 70-80% of what he once was, then Mike Hazen is going to have to really look into the roster and make some harsh decisions when it comes to pitching.
I believe Madison Bumgarner's performance is the biggest make-or-break scenario for the D'backs season and next couple of years.
If Bumgarner is 90-95% of his peak-self for at least the first half of this contract, then D'backs can make some real noise and definitely be one of the two wild card teams.
But if Bumgarner continues to decline off of his 2019 season, then it can really crater 2020 and beyond. D'backs don't have enough reliable arms right now, so they need Bumgarner to be that ace until we see guys like Zac Gallen and Luke Weaver emerge.