The first four weeks of the 2016 college football have featured dramatic overtime victories, shocking upsets, and the emergence of the most electric and exciting player since Johnny Manziel. The good news is we have a 12 more Saturdays to tailgate or sit in front of our TVs all day, but the bad news is we only have 12 more Saturdays to tailgate or sit in front of our TVs all day. The first third of the season has taught us quite a bit about the college football landscape, and many of those lessons have been surprising.
1. People Are Stupid And We Know Nothing
Take a look at the preseason AP poll. Now look at the AP poll for week 5. Oklahoma, LSU, and Notre Dame were all ranked in the top 10 in the preseason and were considered to be playoff contenders. Now, none of those teams has a winning record. Louisville, Texas A&M, and Wisconsin were either snuck into the preseason rankings or were not ranked at all. All three teams were expected to make some noise in their respective conferences and have nice seasons, but were not considered real threats to make the playoffs. Four weeks later, Louisville looks to be a lock to be a playoff team, and Texas A&M has revealed itself to be the biggest threat to Alabama, while Wisconsin appears ready to challenge Ohio State and Michigan for the Big 10 crown.
2. Conferences Don't Matter Because There Are Good Teams Everywhere
I don't understand why a Power 5 (ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac12) team would schedule a game against North Dakota State. Sure, NDSU is a FCS school, but they've won five straight FCS championships, and with their week three upset of then #13 Iowa, NDSU has won six consecutive games against FBS teams dating back to 2010. To rub salt in the wound, NDSU has collected over 2 million dollars from the teams they've beaten. Scheduling North Dakota State is a no win situation for a Power 5 team. Either they beat an FCS team, which is expected, or suffer a humiliating and likely season-ending loss. It's a shame that NDSU is unranked because they deserve it, but their weak schedule will most likely prevent them from appearing in the top 25 from now on.
Coming off of a 13-1 season and a 38-24 win over Florida State in the Peach Bowl, many people expected big things out of Tom Herman's Houston squad. Led by star quarterback Greg Ward Jr. the Cougars started their 2016 campaign with an upset of then #3 Oklahoma and haven't looked back. Houston should roll undefeated into their gigantic week 11 matchup with Louisville, and the winner of that game should secure a playoff birth.
Louisville plays with the big boys the ACC but, they're not the first team that comes to mind when you think of football powerhouses. You wouldn't know that when you watch this year's team, however. Quarterback Lamar Jackson is the breakout star of the 2016 season, and the clear Heisman favorite going into October. Through just four games, he has already thrown for over 1300 yards and 13 touchdowns, while running for over 500 yards and 12 more scores. Those are video game numbers. Louisville isn't just a one-man show, though, since the defense has more than held its own. The defense has produced 28 tackles for loss and 13 quarterback sacks which is good for 5th in the nation. Stud outside linebackers Devonte Fields and James Hearns , and defensive linemen DeAngelo Brown and Drew Bailey held Dalvin Cook, one of the nation's best running backs, to just 53 yards on 16 carries in Louisville's dominant 63-20 win over Florida State. Head coach Bobby Petrino has done an incredible job this year and deserves another shot in the SEC. Depending on what happens at LSU and Auburn, he might get that chance.
3. Point Two Was Kind Of A Lie Because The Big 12 Is Really Really Bad
Before they kicked off their season against Houston, Oklahoma looked ready to return to the playoffs for the seconds straight year. Heisman candidate quarterback Baker Mayfield returned to lead an offense featuring talented running backs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. The defense was expected to be young and untested but very talented. So what went wrong? Mayfield hasn't been himself through the first three games. He's hesitant to make plays with his feet after taking several big hits against Houston, so he tries to force bad passes which have had disastrous results. To be fair, the offensive line hasn't done him any favors. The defense has shown no ability to stop an opponent's passing game. Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett and Houston QB Greg Ward Jr. had time to sit in the pocket and pick apart Oklahoma's incompetent secondary.
Texas entered the season with a lot of questions. Could the offense score with a first-time play caller and a true freshman under center? Had Charlie Strong fixed the defense? Had the special teams improved? The national media proclaimed that Texas was back and all of those questions were answered when Texas beat a top 10 Notre Dame team in overtime in week one. The expectations continued to grow on the 40 Acres after Texas rolled UTEP in week two. Then defensive guru Charlie Strong allowed Texas Tech cast-off quarterback Davis Webb and walk on wide receiver Chad Hansen to shred the Texas defense for 507 yards in Cal's 50-43 win. The pass rush was bad, the linebacker play awful and the secondary play was somehow even worse. A bye week was supposed to allow Strong and company time to circle the wagons and fix the defense while giving quarterback Shane Buechele time to recover from a minor rib injury. Instead, starting offensive lineman and senior leader Kent Perkins was arrested for a DWI. To make matters worse, the Longhorns' signature win lost most of its luster as Notre Dame lost to Duke to fall to 1-3 on the season. The loss to Cal became even more damning as the Golden Bears lost their week four matchup against Arizona State. The Big 12 is wide open and Shane Buechele is the real deal, but it is going to be a long season in Austin if the defense doesn't improve dramatically.
4. The Big 10 Is The 2nd Best Conference Behind The SEC
What Urban Meyer has managed to do with this impossibly young Ohio State team is unbelievable. 12 Buckeyes were taken in last year's NFL draft, including five in the 1st round. The two-deep lists 18 freshmen, making Ohio State one of the nation's youngest teams. No one could be blamed if Ohio State suffered some growing pains and struggled through a rebuilding year as quarterback JT Barrett drug the team to a bowl appearance. Instead, the Buckeyes ripped off two easy wins against Bowling Green and Tulsa before dominating Oklahoma. That win served as a coming out party for a young team that is squarely in the discussion for a playoff spot.
Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh might be insane. That said, he quietly has his team playing at a playoff level. Do it all defender Jabril Peppers and the rest of the defense has bee just as good as advertised and the offense has been a pleasant surprise. The Wolverines have done exactly what was expected of them by dominating weaker competition. The first real test comes next week when Wisconsin visits the Big House.
Speaking of Wisconsin, the Badgers have played themselves into a top 10 ranking. Behind an excellent defense, Wisconsin upset 5th ranked LSU in week one and 8th ranked Michigan State in week four. The offense won't wow you, but it is effective enough. Realistically, the Badgers probably aren't good enough to beat both Ohio State and Michigan, but it's not hard to imagine them upsetting one of the two.
The middle tier of Big 10 teams is especially dangerous this year. Mark Dantonio 's Michigan State always plays hard and once again has a talented defense. Nebraska's offense has looked explosive as the team has jumped out to a 4-0 start including a win over a ranked Oregon team.
5. Tennessee Will Play Alabama or Texas A&M In The SEC Championship
It seems like Tennesse is the preseason favorite to win the SEC East every year but they can never capitalize on the hype. This year is different. Yes, the Volunteers stumbled out of the gate needing overtime to beat Appalachian State then didn't look very inspiring in wins over Virginia State and Ohio. In week four, they trailed the Florida Gators 21-3 at halftime but scored 38 unanswered points in the second half to win 38-28. Quarterback Josh Dobbs seemed to finally put the pieces together as he was 9 of 12 for 235 yards and four touchdowns and ran for another touchdown in the 2nd half. By defeating Florida, Tennessee placed itself in the driver's seat for the SEC East title.
People were rightfully cautious before praising Texas A&M in the first few weeks of the season. After all, we've seen this song and dance before. The Aggies were asked to prove they belonged with the other contenders in their week four showdown against Arkansas. A&M's performance on Saturday night showed that these Aggies are different than last years team or the team from two years ago.
A&M quarterback Trevor Knight was horribly erratic throwing the ball in the first half, and Aggie defensive back Nick Harvey stood no chance against Razorback wide receiver Keon Hatcher. In fact, the Arkansas passing game was successful most of the night behind the arm of Austin Allen. Texas A&M stars Myles Garrett, Ricky Seals-Jones, and Justin Evans all missed time during the game with injuries. Christian Kirk, arguably A&M's best receiver, had a nightmare of a first half, fumbling once and having at least one drop.
Here's the thing: none of that mattered.
The Aggies' run defense was flat out dominant especially on the goal line, where Arkansas ran 10 plays inside the two yard line and came away with no points. Go ahead and read that again and then think about how incredible that is. That's a real Wrecking Crew performance. No one can accuse A&M of being "soft" anymore. On the other side of the ball, when Knight couldn't make plays with his arm, he made them with his feet. The quarterback had two long touchdown runs in the 1st half, with the 2nd run tying the game with 13 seconds left in the first half. Knight started planting his feet before his throws in the 2nd half, and he found much more success through the air, throwing touchdown passes of 92 and 9 yards. The Aggies also had success running the ball all night, finishing with over 360 yards on the ground. Oklahoma transfer running back and human sledgehammer Keith Ford ran hard all game and wore down the Razorbacks' defense with his punishing running style. That opened the door for explosive and elusive true freshman Trayveon Williams to score on runs of 33 and 22 yards in the 4th quarter. With the thunder and lightning dynamic between Ford and Williams, and the x-factor provided by Knight's rushing ability, the Aggies have a running game that can succeed in the SEC.
That brings me to a larger point. After five years, Kevin Sumlin finally has a team that is built and plays like a real SEC team. The Johnny Manziel years really were magical, but that sort of offense isn't effective against the size and the speed of SEC defenses without a generational talent at quarterback. Sumlin realized this and it took years to put together a roster that was deep enough to compete for an entire season and win by running the ball, limiting turnovers, and playing defense at an elite level. If a banged up Texas A&M team can get past an admittedly weak South Carolina, that sets up a fantastic clash with potentially top 10 ranked Tennessee at Kyle Field. Win that one, and the Aggies get a bye week to prepare for a game against Alabama where the winner of that game probably wins the SEC West. If the Aggies can remain healthy, Knight can be more consistent while protecting the ball, and the defense can continue to stop the run while improving pass coverage, A&M can beat anyone in the country. Yes, that's a lot of "ifs" but I believe we're witnessing the start of a truly special season for the Aggies.
