It is difficult to predict the ultimate effect of a presidential election, especially one preceded by a global pandemic, but according to many political scientists, this declining economy does pose well for a Trump reelection. Historically, economic performance has a profound effect on presidential elections. Even though the government has passed a stimulus bill, the actual economic impact of the virus cannot be determined in real numbers. But so far, social distancing and the closure of "non-essential" businesses have and will continue to devastate the economy, possibly pushing us into a recession.

Even though it is generally true that economic devastation usually would destroy a candidate's reputation, this pandemic is an unprecedented situation. Political scientists look at the last two years of a President's term to determine their chances for reelection. In Trump's case, America experienced a solid economy from 2018 until the virus took hold in America. Voters may take that into account and view the pandemic as an inevitable setback by any President.

However, despite the inevitability of an economic downturn during a global pandemic of this nature, the length of this possible recession is determined by the rate at which the country responds to the virus. In this case, Trump's response has constantly been three steps too late if you can call his response a response anyway. The federal government has not mandated closure of state borders or even placed stay-at-home mandates in every city, leaving it up to state governments to institute those precautions. But his complacent rhetoric has influenced Republican governors to refuse to order those mandates, even though Democratic mayors have established them within their cities within those red states. If states do not mandate social distancing, then the timeline of the virus will only lengthen and, with it, the state of our declining economy. This might override the positive state of the economy for the past two years.

Trump himself has been trying to use this pandemic to his own gain, but really it has worked against him. By being complacent and spouting rhetoric that aimed to downplay the severity of the virus, he only perpetuated the spread and worsened the economy. His savior complex may prove to be his own defeat if come November voters determine his actions as deepening our current crisis.