I suppose that when I elected to drop-out of film school and study politics instead, whatever I may have expected, I never quite imagined I’d be writing about events so far beyond my wildest imagination--events which undoubtedly would have been regarded as categorically impossible had some time traveler prophesied them to a panel of pundits the day before Donald Trump announced his candidacy for President. Yet here we are, braced for impact as reality eclipses fiction in the race towards absurdity and the rabbit hole of U.S. politics stretches deeper, contorting itself with greater irregularity than ever previously thought possible.
On Friday, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released an unclassified version of a report compiled with intelligence from the CIA, FBI, and NSA titled ‘Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections’. Most notably, the report states “We assess Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the US presidential election. Russia’s goals were to undermine public faith in the US democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency. We further assess Putin and the Russian Government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump.”
The report also details the methods utilized by the Kremlin throughout the course of the elections, noting that “Moscow’s influence campaign followed a Russian messaging strategy that blends covert intelligence operations—such as cyber activity—with overt efforts by Russian Government agencies, state-funded media, third-party intermediaries, and paid social media users or “trolls.” Making official what many news agencies had already reported and numerous sources had already confirmed, the report lays the foundation for an ongoing debate over what a proportional U.S. response will be. Additionally, it begs numerous questions as to how complicit the President-elect has been in this breach of national security as long as he perceived it to benefit his own political ambitions.
While campaigning in Florida last July, Trump made a controversial comment in which he seemingly urged Russia to hack Secretary Clinton’s email, saying “Russia: If you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing.” After the initial backlash he doubled down on Twitter, writing “If Russia or any other country or person has Hillary Clinton’s 33,000 illegally deleted emails, perhaps they should share them with the FBI!” At the time Trump’s statements came across as reckless on behalf of a major party nominee, and his running mate Governor Pence struck a drastically different tone by deferring to the FBI’s ongoing investigation while asserting that if any evidence of Russian involvement were to emerge “I can assure you both parties and the United States government will ensure there are serious consequences.”
In light of the recent report, which reveals that Russia abandoned many of their plans to undermine a Clinton Presidency and celebrated following the surprise election of Trump, the Republican nominee’s comments as a candidate become even more troublesome. Considering that his party’s previous nominee for President, Mitt Romney, made a point to disagree with President Obama by calling Russia our “biggest geopolitical foe” barely more than four years ago and that even his own running mate decided to distance himself, President-elect Trump really is alone on this one. President Obama recently announced the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats and closure of two compounds in response to the Russian influence campaign. In response, President-elect Trump reiterated a call to “move on” and Putin surprisingly opted not to retaliate, instead waiting patiently for what he presumes will be a more accommodating relationship with the next President. Trump praised Putin's move as "very smart."
Meanwhile, the snowball of concern has picked up bipartisan support with Republican Senators Lindsay Graham and John McCain joining Democrats in calling for a special bipartisan panel to investigate Russian cyber attacks. Despite majority leader Mitch McConnell still resisting the idea of a special panel, hearings have already begun in the Armed Services Committee and the committee, chaired by McCain, has established a new panel on cybersecurity headed by Graham. Considering that Republicans only hold a two-seat majority in the Senate, Trump might have even more Russia-related headaches in his future when it comes to confirming his nominee for Secretary of State, former ExxonMobil CEO, Rex Tillerson. A recipient of the order of friendship from Putin in 2013 for signing offshore drilling contracts with state owned oil company Rosneft, Tillerson’s lack of government experience and opposition to international sanctions placed on Russia in 2014 following their annexation of Crimea have raised serious questions about whether he is sufficiently qualified and objective to serve as Secretary of State.
If Senate Democrats and Independents unite in opposition to Tillerson and just two Republicans refuse to support him, Vice-President Pence could be called in to break a tie – an ironic potential outcome considering his own previous split from Trump when it came to Russia. With McCain talking about the possibility of pigs flying when asked if he would support Tillerson, that doesn’t seem entirely unlikely. Further, if McCain and Graham can get just one more Republican Senator to join their cause (potentially Marco Rubio) then Tillerson may have quit his day job a little too soon. Being forced to withdraw his nominee for Secretary of State would be a devastating blow for a President who will already take office with historically low approval ratings, especially coupled with ongoing Congressional investigations into foreign interference in the election he won, while Russia remains the common denominator.
In what will be the first press conference he’s held in 167 days and after tweeting over 1,500 times, on Wednesday, President-elect Trump is scheduled to take questions from reporters on how he’ll be disentangling himself from his various business interests before taking office. Considering the questions might end up covering a broader variety of topics, it seems likely that Trump will also be asked about current investigations into or recent reports regarding Russia’s interference in the election. Despite the reputation he earned as the ‘Teflon-Don’ throughout the course of the campaign, it’s beginning to become clear that this might be the one scandal that sticks and if the President-elect can’t put it to bed soon then it could become his own personal Watergate.
