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The Top Five Take Aways From The Republican Convention

Is It Trump's Party Now?

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The Top Five Take Aways From The Republican Convention
yahoo.com

To anyone that even remotely keeps up with American Politics, the Republican Convention last week has been at the top of the news docket. Everyone, from Republican to Democrats to independents, expected it to be a much more, lets say flashier, convention than any of its predecessors and the Donald and his Republican allies did not disappoint. Between Ted Cruz's dramatic boo off stage and the suspenseful introduction of the now official GOP nominee (some even compared it to the Undertaker's entrance who is a wrestler in the WWE league), many it felt like much more of a reality TV show then a Political convention. Didn't watch the Republican convention in its entirety like some of us political wonks?-That's okay, here are the five most important takeaways from the 4 day-long event.

1) Not everyone is a happy camper

The GOP Convention was meant to be a unifying force that brought the party together.Furthermore,to many Conservatives in the establishment, picking Mike Pence as the Republican's Vice-Presidential nominee soothed many's worries about his commitment to conservatism (particularly social conservatism). Yet, not all at the convention were happy. Arkansas Representative Steve Womack, who was serving as the convention chair on the first day of the Republican Convention, put the rules for the convention to a voice vote, and although many delegates yelled 'nay' to show their disapproval of approving the rules, the chair declared that the motion had prevailed. The Floor erupted into a series of Trump allies chanting Trump's name and Never Trump delegates booing at the decision.Virginia delegate Ken Cuccinelli, a prominent leader in the Never Trump crowd, was even caught on camera throwing his credentials on the ground and walking out. Chair Womack pointed out afterwards that the never Trump delegates would have been defeated most likely, but to many delegates they simply felt like their voice was ignored in order to portray a false sense of party unity.

Speaking of discontent with the now official GOP nominee, many prominent GOP members did not attend the convention. John Kasich, George Bush Jr. and Sr., Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, and many Republican elected officials, to name a few, were among the Party elites that did not attend the convention. Paul Ryan himself, the House of Representatives' Speaker of the House, broke with tradition and instead spent the first few days advocating for some of numerous policies meant to bring a 'GOP revolution.'

2) Trump has experienced a surge in national polls

Five thirty Eight Founder Nate Silver surprised many recently when he declared that if the election were to be held today, Trump had the largest likelihood of winning. He gave Donald Trump a 57.5 percent of winning against Clinton compared with Clinton's 42.5 percent. This comes from Silver's Now forecast that conglomerates notable national surveys done recently together to come out with a hopefully more clear statistical analysis. Now, as Silver himself notes, which the media has seemed to ignore in its sensational headlines,the breakdown is much more complicated than that. Sure, Trump is currently the most probable victor, but once one looks closer at the breakdown between the electoral college and the popular vote, things get even trickier. Silver's model, which again is a conglomerate of national polls with some additional statistical mathematics to reduce error, has the popular vote had a virtual tie (45.4 percent for Trump and 45.1 percent for Clinton) and the electoral vote going to Trump (285 votes for Trump and 252.6 votes for Clinton). To anyone with basic statistical knowledge, that is well within the margin of error clearly, but still shows Trump's rise in the polls. Many may find this interesting given the recent bipartisan distaste for Trump over the past year, but as many outlets note, this election has two of the most unpopular candidates in recent history going against each other.

For those that are paying attention, you may be wondering about the third party candidates and if they were included in Silver's model. Well, yes and no. Doing a controlled comparison, the model shows the Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson will win just .4% percent of the electoral vote and 8.2 percent of the popular vote. (Which is still a big feat for any third party candidate. Ask Ross Perot about the last time that happened.) However, for some reason Green Party nominee Jill Stein was not included in the polls. Yet, Silver notes one important interpretation to take away from this poll: "It's not Trump's convention bounce per se that should worry Dems. That's pretty normal. It's how it became so close to begin with..Trump trailed by around 3 points in our forecasts a week ago. Typical convention bounce is 4 points. So you end up at Trump +1 or so." In other words, it's pretty close at the moment and far away from the election so polls can change, but one thing that Democrats and individuals that doubt that Trump could ever win need to take away is this: The guy actually has a chance.

3) The Times are Changing?

For the first time ever in GOP convention history, an individual who is openly gay spoke. That man is no other than Peter Thiel, the tech billionaire and co-founder of PayPal who is a well-known friend of Trump. He even went as far as to tell the GOP crowd to not get distracted by culture wars. He then saluted Trump for not getting too involved in the culture wars and focusing on issues that mattered. Although some applauded, it was clear from some faces in the room that not all were pleased. Especially when Thiel commented on the transgender bathroom issue currently dominating North Carolina Politics: "This is a distraction from our real problems. Who cares? I don't pretend to agree with every plank of our party platform." After his speech, many delegates from North Carolina, interviewed by NPR, showed their frustration at what some of them viewed to be an attack on them.

Many have noted that although Trump's bombastic comments about minorities has come off as prejudice, that the main concerns of the GOP nominee to many of his supporters seem to be the economy. In fact, to many Trump supporters that is the most important issue for them. Some have even gone as far to emphasize that Trump is changing the GOP. For instance, when asked to weigh in on the transgender bathroom issue in North Carolina a few months ago, Trump's comments showed a man that really did not seem to care for the debate. Almost to the point of where he did not see a problem with allowing Transgender individuals to use the bathroom that correspondents to their current gender! But, like many things about the GOP nominee, one cannot be so sure. Other times he has seemed to indicate otherwise. In terms of influencing the GOP platform, if Trump is even truly a supporter of Gay rights, it has not influenced the platform too much. In fact, the Log Cabin Republicans Facebook group (a Gay rights Republican group) stated the following on the newly approved GOP platform: "There’s no way to sugar-coat this: I’m mad as hell — and I know you are, too. Moments ago, the Republican Party passed the most anti-LGBT Platform in the Party’s 162-year history. Opposition to marriage equality, nonsense about bathrooms, an endorsement of the debunked psychological practice of “pray the gay away” — it’s all in there."

Many noted that during Trump's speech on the last night, his direct pitch to the LGBTQIA+ community to vote for him was the most direct a GOP candidate has been at a convention on the topic. After the crowd cheered when Trump promised to protect the LGBT community from mass shootings, Trump said: "I have to say, as a Republican, it is so nice to hear you cheering for what I just said...Thank you." Now, many polls show increasing support in the Republican camp for such issues, but it is slow. Although a Pew research study done in 2014 shows that a good majority (61 percent) of young republicans support gay marriage, opposition within the more conservative ranks (particularly the evangelical voting bloc) are still high. Right before the legalization of gay marriage last Summer, the Washington Post noted in their poll that: "Despite that (the majority of Americans supporting gay marriage), wide swaths of opposition persist among important voting groups. More than 6 in 10 Republicans oppose allowing gay couples to marry, and that increases to 71 percent of conservative Republicans, who play a critical role in the party’s presidential primaries and caucuses." No large comprehensive poll has been done recently to survey Republicans on the matter, but another important factor to note that some media outlets do not report on, is that some Republicans (even if just a minority of them) support gay marriage, but they do not like the way it was achieved. To them, the Supreme Court making such a large decision was nothing but judicial activism. Their alternative is for it to pass through congress or the States individually.

So, to sum up the GOP's position on LGBT rights, it may be slowly changing as younger Republicans come in, but many doubt that Trump will make that an issue in his campaign. That even if he wanted to, it would 'rock the boat' too much with potential voters and the Republican establishment. Additionally, many LGBT Americans are still unconvinced that he supports their community at all. And although younger Republicans are taking more leadership positions, the conservative evangelical bloc of the party, it's most conservative base, is still seen to be a large dominant force in the party. If they do not die out in influence or change emphasis off of social issues, then things may still be gridlocked for awhile in the GOP on social matters.

4) The GOP establishment is still overwhelmingly against the Black Lives Matter movement

No sign of this changing. Trump's rhetoric was still, too many, very harsh when talking about the movement. Many African-American Republicans have been frustrated at the hyper-vigilant tone taken on the issue. This also speaks to a larger problem:Trump's almost non-existent support in the Latino and Black communities. Many polls have shown it. And although there are these supporters out there that are minorities, they are outlers. Statistical anomalies, if you will. As the Romney-Obama election showed in 2012, to win a election, it is becoming increasingly important to get support from the minority communities of America. Many have noted that that is why Trump is seemingly trying to make continuous pitches, as of recently, to minority communities. For instance, he has constantly tried to equate the fight for gun rights as one that would actually also protect minority communities. However, many have also noted that he seems to consistently shoot himself in the foot per se. What do they mean? Well, with all of these pitches to these communities, the rhetoric the GOP nominee uses seems to always be filled with outrageous or generalizing statements that many consider offensive to minorities. Time will tell if Trump can really convince enough minority voters that Clinton does not have their best interests in mind.

5) Trump's Speech: The Law and Order Candidate

The night before Trump's speech, many were talking. Many wondered if Trump was finally going to really try to unify the party, or if he was just going to do his usual rants without a teleprompter. (Which some prefer, but to some supporters and especially establishment Republicans, it is a nightmare.) Well, perception is power in this case. It was released just before Trump's speech that many of the people that were helping to write his speech were former speech writers for Ronald Reagan, which excited many. This also emphasized a point Donald trump made about being the new Ronald Reagan by bringing in new members to the Republican Primaries. (Which, is actually true.) The results? The speech, like most of the RNC Convention, showed an America on the brink of destruction. He talked of an America divided on racial lines (thanks to Obama of course), a nation that is getting more violent, the fact that the economy is horrible, a nation torn apart by wars abroad, and of course, that the Obama administration has done nothing to combat ISIS. It was an intriguing strategy that had Trump written all over it. Never mind that FactCheck.Org proved that many of his statistics and statements were an over exaggeration if not just flat out false, Trump's speech actually seemed to work in many Republican circles. Perhaps that is why he had a boost in the polls, who knows? But to any political wonk out there, the constant comparison he set up as the: "Law and Order candidate" struck a flashback to the past for many. Richard Nixon, when running for President in the seventies, used the same strategy. He convinced Americans that America was fallen apart and that he was the guy to fix it. He was the doom and gloom candidate, but many Americans loved it. But, an important thing to note is that America was far worse off back then than it was today. The economy today, although still not fully recovered for everyone, is much better than it was then. The Vietnam War had many Americans furious, not to mention the civil unrest of the civil rights movement that brought about a lot of violence. Many seemed to blame this on the previous Democratic administration. Yet, the question many politcal analysts have, will this strategy work today? America is definitely not as worse off as it was back then, but as is always the case in the political realm, the perception of citizens is what truly matters in politics, not always the facts. So it remains to be seen, but some Republicans have thought it to be a bad move. Some Republicans even though the GOP Convention talked to much about Hillary and too little about what the Republicans would do differently.

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This article has not been reviewed by Odyssey HQ and solely reflects the ideas and opinions of the creator.
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