“What is at stake is nothing less than the survival and well-being of a generation of innocents.”- Antonio Guterres, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
What Ambassador Guterres is referring to might well be one of the most prominent conflicts of our time, the ongoing war in Syria. The war is currently entering its sixth year and after prolonged and bloody fighting has killed over 500,000 people according to the United Nations and has unleashed both an unprecedented humanitarian and international security crisis. The war has displaced millions of Syrians to neighboring European nations such as Germany and Turkey and has given known terrorist groups such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula a mechanism to recruit more fighters and further their capacity to commit terrorist attacks in the United States, Europe, and south east Asia.
This week however, President Trump decided that it is time for the United States to intervene in the war. This past Thursday, he decided to launch Tomahawk surface to surface missiles at Syrian Air Force bases suspected to have launched chemical weapons attacks against civilians in rebel occupied areas. Early reports indicated that the strikes were a relative success as they destroyed several Syrian fighter jets and hindered embattled Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad’s ability to wage war on his people.
While I will not disagree that it is a good thing that the United States hindered Assad’s ability to use weapons of mass destruction within his own borders, I do have to ask a simple question: what do we do now?
To be honest, there are very few actual options open to the president. First let’s take a look at what has already been done. It was highly publicized that in 2013, the CIA began funding and training a rebel group to launch a ground offensive against ISIS with no success as most of the troops deserted or were crushed. Also, the CIA has given substantial support to the Free Syrian Army, a conglomerate of moderate Muslims that seek to overthrow Assad and establish a democratic government in Syria. And last but certainly not least, the United States has used all manners of air attack on Assad’s military, and that has had marginal success in diminishing the effectiveness of his army.
However, as long as Russian forces continue to prop up Assad’s despot regime, things are unlikely to change. Russia currently occupies an air base in Latakia, Syria and has a maritime presence in the Black Sea, and I may be naive but I would think Russian President Vladimir Putin, the strongman’s strongman would be somewhat angry should one of his fighters were shot down by the United States. After all, this isn’t Putin’s first rodeo with radical Islam. He is well remembered for the slaughter of thousands of Chechens in the second Chechen war (trust me, it wasn’t pretty).
All in all, there can be no mistake: Assad must and will go, the only question is when? I personally believe it will be soon. His government barely exists and half of Syria will never accept him as their president again. As Victor Hugo once said, “When dictatorship becomes a fact revolution becomes a right.”