Well, we are here now. It’s February and reality TV star/billionaire Donald J. Trump is still in the presidential race, and not only is he still in the race... he’s the likely candidate for the Republican party. How did we get here? I don’t know. Does anyone know? Does Donald Trump even know? The only person who may know is the ghost of Niccolo Machiavelli, and he’s not around to answer questions so we all just have to submit to this random upside-down world we currently reside in.
So now where do we go with this? Well, Trump is the leading delegate getter for the GOP, he’s leading the polls in nearly every state, and right now seems unstoppable. So the next obvious step is to look at the general election in November under the assumption that hotel mogul and general xenophobe Trump as the Republican presidential candidate, and as the Republican candidate that grants him access to a wealth of political power that six months ago did not seem possible. A power that makes Mr. Trump a very likely 45th president of the United States.
So let’s break this down. The USA general election makes no sense. The Electoral College essentially affords this opportunity to Trump as it is very unlikely that Trump wins the popular vote in any election. He hasn’t done so yet in a GOP primary or caucus and he likely won’t in the general. But given the breakdown of the USA and its electoral votes and social tendencies, there are 23 states that are guaranteed to go red in November. Those states include Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, Nebraska, Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana and West Virginia. That's 23 of the 50 States accounting for 191 Electoral College votes. The Electoral College race to the presidency is a barrier of 270, so win 271 and you win the presidency. The Democrats do have their home ground and do hold a high percentage so this isn’t quite a cake walk…obviously. The Democrats are all but guaranteed to hold Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. That's 17 states accounting for 217 College votes. That leaves 10 States to decide the presidency.
So let’s look at this potential map:
So ultimately what we get down to is this: 10 states control the general election. This isn’t entirely uncommon, but that only further legitimizes my point. The Electoral College system has over time placed the entirety of the presidential election on 10 states. The most important of these states being Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, as they are the least projectable. However, any and every combination works; Trump only needs 270.
So now, I, Carter Chapley, am going to make a way too early prediction on the swing states, because some are really predictable this cycle.
Colorado: 9 Electoral Votes
This is almost too easy to predict. For starters, most of Colorado is suburbanized or based around major cities. Think Denver, Boulder, Colorado Springs, Fort Collins; that’s where most of the state is. The state is also increasingly liberal and will likely run as far and as fast as they can from Trump and the GOP. Oh and that other big thing that they love and the Elephants hate…WEED. Yup, they love their ganja there and will want to hold onto it dearly. So sort this state as blue.
Pennsylvania: 20 Electoral Votes
Pennsylvania is a toughie, a state developed on two very large metropolitan/urban cities with large suburban sprawl around them. But both of those cities are well-known hard laborer havens. Both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are hard-nose, blue-collar job centers, and a voter group that typically goes red. However, these centers are still urbanized and are willing to vote Democrat and has gone blue in every election since 2000. So I'll predict this state to go blue, but a soft blue, a light blue even.
Florida: 29 Electoral Votes
Florida is a state with a weird demographic, a weird demographic because of its big cities, like Jacksonville, Orlando and Miami and its empty rural-ish space in between. It’s a diverse electorate: of the 11 million registered voters in 2012, only 36% of those voters are not white. Seems odd, right? It isn’t when you consider that most of the minority population in the state don’t have full citizenship and cannot vote. Between Canadian Snow Birds, Hispanic immigrants and Cuban refugees, a huge portion of those who live in Florida can’t vote.
Similarly, given the cost of living in Florida, the people who do live in big cities are upper-middle-class people, or retirees, so I am going to say the state will go Republican.
North Carolina: 15 Electoral Votes
North Carolina is the definition of a swing state. In 2008, North Carolina voted for Obama, and then in 2012 switched its vote to go for Republican Mitt Romney. There are 2.8 million registered Democrats, and only 2 million registered Republicans. Nine of the 13 Congressional seats are owned by Republicans. The Senate is split one each and the governor is Republican. It’s a weird state demographically speaking. This is also the state in which we will see the biggest Trump influence. Most of the state is rural, and vulnerable. They also receive that southern push and will get a ton of carryover from South Carolina. So because this state is so on the fence, and leaning red, give this one to Trump.
New Hampshire: 4 Electoral Votes
New Hampshire may be considered a "swing state," but in recent years, this state has gone solidly Democratic. Don’t expect any deviation from the norm here, especially with DJT as the opposing candidate.
Virginia: 13 Electoral Votes
Most people wouldn’t consider Virginia a swing state, and would general consider it a liberal state, but it’s not that simple. Yes, most federal government buildings and workers are in Virginia. Yes, there are multiple urban centers on the east coast. There is also a large Republican base, lots of white wealth, and outside of the main urban centers the state is surrounded by some of the most conservative states, think Tennessee, West Virginia, and Kentucky.
OK, so to dispel a few of the implications I’ve made, just because you are white and have money does that make you a Republican. It also doesn't automatically mean you're Republican if you live in rural/ non-urban areas; it’s just you are more likely to be, and your demographic more likely swings that way, so I’m tying you all together. And that's why I’m calling Virginia will go Democratic.
Trump is more than just a fiscal conservative; he is an active social conservative. This social conservatism will likely alienate most fiscal conservatives and scare them away, because let's be real, Trump has spent no time talking what he plans to do with the economy beyond "no longer losing to china," which may be a foreign taxation plan but who the hell knows with this guy? Because he isn’t a vocal fiscal conservative, he will run away those money votes in Virginia.
Where the real race begins
So now we are down to four uncalled states: Nevada, Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin. All four states with too much going on to be predictable. Nevada is similar to Florida in that most of the people who live and work and establish polling don’t vote in Nevada, but in their home state. Iowa has really crazy student turnout in the caucus and will rely on Bernie Sanders to help swing this state. Ohio is largely rural or not urban, but does have urban areas scattered all over the state, and Wisconsin has an increasingly liberal youth base but still has a fully controlled Republican-represented government. So from here it comes down to the population of those four states to choose the next president, and that creates a very real, and equally likely, chance of swearing Mr. Trump into office in January.
Also, for giggles, here's a map that shows a dead tie at 269-269. HOW STUPID IS THIS?
