It's that time of year again as we prepare for the first round of elimination to crown the new Sprint Cup Champion. Two weeks ago, the Chase began at Chicagoland Speedway as 16 drivers entered what are the last ten races of the season with their eyes on one prize, the Championship. Some drivers have made every year of the Chase since it took its new format in 2014. Others are new and wondering if they had what it takes to be the next Sprint Cup Champion like Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch have done.
The 2016 season has been full of controversial headlines as new rules and packages have shaken the teams. However, 16 drivers were able to clinch a spot and make the Chase. Chris Buescher threw a curveball when he won the rain shortened race at Pocono. Kyle Larson won his first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at Michigan which punched his seat in the Chase. Noticeably absent is Dale Earnhardt Jr. as he suffered a concussion that led to the end of his season. Tony Stewart, much like Kyle Busch one season ago, came back from an injury and made the Chase for what will be his final season as a driver as he plans to retire at the end of 2016. Drivers like Chase Elliott, who took over driving the No. 24 this year, Austin Dillon and Jamie McMurray had strong seasons that allowed them to enter the chase on points.
On Sunday October 2nd, the Chase field will go from 16 drivers to 12 as they enter the Contender Round. Two drivers have already secured their spots on wins.
Martin Truex Jr has once again showed he is a Contender for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship. Last year, Martin made it to the Championship round and placed 4th overall in the Chase. He has had many solid runs in both last season and this season. The alliance his team, Front Row Motorsports, has with Joe Gibbs Racing has shown the threat of Toyota drivers again this year. Martin seems to have benefited well with this alliance as he nearly won the Daytona 500 and has three wins so far this season.His long-time girlfriend Sherry Pollex also announced in August that she is a two-year Cancer survivor as she battled ovarian cancer. Each win he has is a celebration, especially with her by his side. Martin's win at Chicagoland Speedway clinched his spot into the Contender Round.
2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion Kevin Harvick, secured his spot last week at New Hampshire Motor Speedway by beating out Matt Kenseth for the win on a late race restart. Kevin is the only driver who has never been eliminated from any round in this Chase format. Last year after a disastrous race at Chicagoland Speedway, he had to win his way into the Contender round and he did so at Dover. This year he can breath a little easier knowing he is securely in the next round. Kevin has won two regular season races as well as this Chase win.
Drivers like Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth seem to be in secure spots but as we saw last year with "pretty secure" Jimmie Johnson's parts failure at Dover, you are not truly secure without a win. If you haven't won, you are concerned. However, there are six drivers that stick out that must be a little more nervous than others as we go to Dover.
Chase Elliott is a Sprint Cup Rookie who has had a very impressive season. As the son of Hall of Fame Driver, Bill Elliott, he took over driving the No. 24 for Hendrick Motorsports for Jeff Gordon who retired at the end of the 2015 season. He won the pole at Daytona and has been close to a win on multiple occasions. So far in the Chase, he has shown he is a Contender with solid finishes but can he survive the Monster Mile this weekend and make it to the round of twelve? Chase finished third at Dover in the Spring.
Kyle Larson won his first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race this year at Michigan, punching his ticket to his first Chase. Kyle had been on the verge of a win for two years since he first entered series. Kyle is safe for now by barely beating out teammate Jamie McMurray by five points for the final seat in the Contender round. Kyle has raced at Dover five times and has an average finish of 6.2. In the Spring, he finished second to Matt Kenseth.
Jamie McMurray is entering his second Chase, both of which on points. Last year, Jamie missed the Contender round to Dale JR on one of the final restarts at Dover. He has an average finish of 13.4 at Dover since 2014 and he finished 21st in the Spring. Jamie is currently out of the Contender round to his teammate Kyle Larson.
Austin Dillon had what some described, big shoes to fill, when started driving the No. 3 in 2014. He had a strong start when he sat on the Daytona 500 pole. He eventually finished 20th in the points in 2014. Last year, coming off his scary Daytona crash that made headlines through the world, he finished 21st. This season, he had a whole new attitude. Austin won the pole at Fontana at the beginning of the season. He has also posted career-best finishes and has been on the verge of a win on a few occasions. Austin does have the worst average finish at Dover out of all the Chase drivers with 26.6 being his average finish and his best finish being 20th. Austin needs a really strong finish this weekend to secure his spot as he and Jamie McMurray are tied minus five points from the cut line. He finished 33rd this Spring.
Tony Stewart has faced a rough year as he missed several races because of an offseason broken back injury. He made his return at Richmond and knew he had to win and make the top 30 in points to make his final Chase and he did just that. With his win at Sonoma and after gaining points after solid finishes, Tony punched his ticket to the Chase. This is his first run in the Chase since 2011, when he won his last Championship. However, near the end of the regular season he found himself in some on track controversy. With what seemed to be an intentional wreck to Brian Scott at Darlington to the multi-car crash at Richmond with Ryan Newman, who had some heated comments post-race, a lot of drama has been surrounding Tony. Could that be what has put him behind? As of right now, Tony is below the cutline and is on the verge of a must win situation yet again. His average finish since February 2014 is 19.9 and he finished 34th in the Spring.
Most recent NASCAR XFINITY Series Champion, Chris Buescher, shocked many with his Pocono win. Many people thought of Daytona and Talladega as the wildcard races but who would have though the Tricky Triangle with a touch of rain would create this? His teams call to stay out gave him his first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series win and has been the first Rookie since Trevor Bayne won the 2011 Daytona 500. Even with his win, he was 31st in points and had to beat out David Ragan to secure his spot in the Chase. Chris is currently last out of the 16 drivers and is in a must win situation to guarantee his spot in the Contender round. However, Chris finished 18th at Dover in the Spring beating out seven of the other drivers in the Chase. Who knows, maybe the clock has not stiked midnight for this Cinderella story.
The Chase has been something I have enjoyed these past two years and so far, this season has been no different. I am going big and saying we will see several drivers struggling at Dover. Here's my final picks:
Dover Winner: Jimmie Johnson
After Jimmie Johnson's parts failure in 2015 and missing a shift in the Spring race, expect to see JJ leading laps and contending for the win. He has one of the best records at Dover and has won multiple times in the past 5 years. I expect to see his No. 48 in Victory Lane this weekend.
And the Chase is over for.... Chris Buescher, Jamie McMurray, Kyle Larson and Kurt Busch. These drivers are all near, if not below, the cut line. Chris Buescher needs a win to clinch his spot and I do not see that happening. Jamie McMurray and Kyle Larson have both had solid seasons but I do not think being solid will take them to the Contender Round. Last but not least, Kurt Busch. He has had a great season as well winning at Pocono this Spring. However, he only has two top 10's in the last seven races this season.
See how it all plays out Sunday October 2nd at 2pm ET on NBCSN.
