Six days remain until the Patriots and Falcons face off at NRG stadium in Houston. Before the game, football fans will be exposed to a media circus showcasing former NFL stars attempting to gain a few media cycles and reporters resuscitating the deflate-gate controversy within the context of Roger Goodell potentially handing Robert Kraft yet another Lombardi. Eventually, the pageantry of the endeavor will surely fatigue real fans who just want the ball to come off the tee. But before that, analysts will exhaust every metric from the season and every match up with the purpose of predicting the unpredictable.
Despite the sea of uncertainty that comes with Super Bowl weekend, we can expect to see a few certitudes this week. Inevitably, Bill Belichick’s apathetic press conferences will provide little to no substance. Surely, Tom Brady will lionize Joe Montana as reporters launch questions about to the fabled status of Greatest-Of-All-Time. Meanwhile, Falcons stars like Julio Jones and Matt Ryan will answer questions with subverting implications regarding their preparedness for the biggest stage in the National Football League. Most importantly, Falcons-Patriots will prove to be a game to watch. No, New England will not run away with it. Tom Brady’s revenge tour will have to fight for the final laurel as Atlanta’s powerhouse offense is equipped to take this game to the final seconds of Super Bowl 51.
To begin, let us not prematurely deride the quality of the game simply because the match-up fails to render a battle between Rodgers and Brady, chapter three in the Giants-Patriots, or a clash between hated insignias in Cowboys-Patriots. Not only did the Falcons host airshows every week with Matt Ryan’s MVP season and Julio Jones’ hash-mark to hash-mark domination, but Dan Quinn’s meteoric rise to the echelons of NFL coaching offers a promising storyline.
Interestingly enough, many believe the result will be influenced by coaching with the advantage going to the Bill Belichick. February 5th will mark the Patriots’ seventh Super Bowl appearance in the Belichick era, an overall record nine appearances, and there is no doubt that the Hall of Fame coach will mentally prepare players for the significance of the moment.
Certainly, Matt Patricia and Josh McDaniels, under Belichick’s directive, will construct comprehensive offensive and defensive gameplans equipped with curveballs for the suspect Falcons’ secondary and restraints meant to slow down the high-octane Atlanta offense. The Patriots will come ready to play and ready to slip a fifth ring on Brady’s hand.
But don’t be fooled. The man on the opposing sidelines is not an imbecile and certainly not pedestrian. This upcoming Sunday, Dan Quinn will coach in his third Super Bowl, second against the Patriots, and first as head coach. Quinn transfer from Seattle’s defensive coordinator to Atlanta’s head coach is not a product of a coaching drought in the NFL.
Dan Quinn’s path to Super Bowl 51 included collaborations with Steve Mariucci in San Francisco, Nick Sabin in Miami, Eric Mangini with the Jets, and Pete Carroll in Seattle. Expanding on that last destination, Quinn was the defensive coordinator of a Seahawks defensive core that lead the league in fewest points allowed, fewest yards allowed, and takeaways.
These defensive laurels eventually translated into a Super Bowl rout over Manning’s Broncos in the 2013 season. It was only two years ago that Dan Quinn and Pete Carroll faced off against the Patriots at this very stage, a potential Super Bowl repeat for the Seahawks if Malcolm Butler does not intercept Russell Wilson at the one-yard line.
Dan Quinn has been at this level before and tasted victory. Add experience to his coaching talent evident in his resume, Kyle Shanahan's genius coordinating the most explosive offense in the league, and you have yourself a chess game. Now, the question becomes what kind of chess game fans will see.
According to football insiders, the Falcons and Patriots ended the season number one and two, respectively, in offense when comparing to a league average. Throughout the postseason, both teams scored 150 points combined with the Falcons outscoring opponents by 39 points and the Patriots outscoring by 37 points. Historically, the Falcons and Patriots together averaged 37.5 points over the four postseason games which is higher than any other Super Bowl pair since the 1970 merger. Here lies the potential for a shootout between Brady’s tactical offense and Ryan’s unstoppable freight train.
Another way to bill the match-up is the number one offense, Atlanta, versus the number one scoring defense, the New England Patriots. Nevertheless, a bit of critical nuance gets lost in the headline. As it pertains to strength of schedule, the New England Patriots rank 32nd. This means the Patriots faced the easiest schedule in the league. When facing quarterbacks like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Colin Kaepernick, the Cleveland misfits, Jared Goff, Matt Moore, and Brock Osweiler it is rather simple to claim the above-mentioned title. In fact, when controlling for these factors, the Patriots overall defense checks in at 16th in the league. Patriot fans have plenty of pleasant defensive material from the playoffs to ameliorate moods, but facing off against a non-existent Texans offense and the demoralized Killer Bs in Pittsburg doesn’t replicate the defensive reputation gained by the 2014 Patriots.
The Falcons offense will push around the Patriots bend but don’t break defense. Despite Malcolm Butler’s desire to “check” Julio Jones, the best receiver in the league will shrug off a foot injury while heading to the end zone. If Malcolm Butler, with overhead help, can do what no other corner in the league can do, who is stopping Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, or Devonta Freeman coming out the backfield. New England’s best defensive hope is for Malcolm Brown, Alan Branch, and Rob Ninkovich to break through Atlanta’s trenches and disrupt Ryan’s flow. Get in his face and hit him hard, or he will do it to you with his arm.
Atlanta’s defense does not get off easily. The secondary flaunts a cast of rowdy corners who can be exploited by the Brady-Edelman combo. Offensively, the Patriots ticket to the coronation will lie in the ability to dominate the short game with Dion Lewis and James White coming out of Brady’s sides. Establishing the short game will open mid-range opportunities to Edelman and Hogan. Oh, don’t forget Martellus Bennett. If Bennett can surpass the challenge of playing through injuries, tell me the name of the Falcon who will cover Bennett while contributing to stopping the firm of Lewis-White.
Returning to Atlanta’s defensive plan, the antidote to the Brady Bunch is out there with the patent dropped by Bill O’Brien, Romeo Crennel, and Mike Vrabel in Houston. As Greg Bedard from Sports Illustrated articulated, Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus commanded the trenches in the divisional round by getting to Brady through the middle of the line, exposing Joe Thuney and David Andrews in the process. The question becomes whether Dan Quinn identifies the weakness and if Jonathan Babineaux, along with Vic Beasley can expose Thuney and Andrews once more.
This all being said, I have no clue who will lift the Lombardi at the end of the night and that’s a great thing for the game. Whoever wins, count on Matt Bryant or Stephen Gostkowski hanging their head in defeat as the confetti descends.
