Groundhog Day is a popular holiday among Americans. Though it is not a public nor national holiday, it is printed on many calendars and planners as if it's viewed as an important holiday. For over 120 years, a groundhog named Punxsutawney Phil has predicted whether we will get an early spring or if we will have 6 more weeks of winter, all depending on whether he sees his shadow or not. Punxsutawney Groundhog Club's Inner Circle in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania decides the forecast ahead of time and reveals the prediction on February 2 every year. The groundhog is basically just for fun and they arrange a whole ceremony that is aired on live TV for everyone to watch. This makes me question whether they continue to host ceremonies for Groundhog Day just to make money off of it because they know that the predictions most of the time aren't accurate.
As of 2019, Punxsutawney Phil has predicted 103 forecasts of more winter and 19 early springs. Punxsutawney Phil's overall accuracy at predicting the changes in the season is 39 percent. The groundhog sees his shadow 85 percent of the time. Out of the times that he didn't see his shadow and predicted an early spring, he was still only accurate 47 percent of the time. When you flip a coin, you either land on heads or tails, giving you a 50/50 chance. Flipping a coin to determine whether we will have an early spring or 6 more weeks of winter is more accurate than any prediction Punxsutawney Phil could make.
Punxsutawney Phil isn't the only groundhog that makes predictions based on the upcoming changes in the season although he is the most well-known. Staten Island Chuck, Jimmy the Groundhog, Buckeye Chuck, General Beauregard Lee, Chattanooga Chuck, Dunkirk Dave, and Thistle the Whistlepig are 7 other groundhogs that make predictions in different states.
I have never understood why this is such a big deal to most people, especially those who live in Pennsylvania. I genuinely don't understand what the fun is about waiting around to see if a groundhog sees his shadow or not and some people actually rely on those predictions and are disappointed when they are inaccurate. I've overheard various conversations in my lifetime about people hoping that the groundhog doesn't see his shadow so that we will have an early spring even though the groundhog's predictions are never reliable.
