After vehemently denying, yet again, his potential candidacy for President of the United States, Paul Ryan’s name was plastered across nearly every acclaimed newspaper in the U.S. From The New York Timesto the primarily online publication POLITICO, the current Speaker of the House was making headline news. With Mr. Ryan’s staunch rebuttal of any run for the presidency surfacing yet again, Republican leadership seems to be leveraging themselves for a messy 2016 National Convention.
With all the haze surrounding the potential Republican nominee – noting the expiring gap in the Trump-Cruz delegate count – GOP leaders appear anxious to paste a new face at the helm of their list for candidacy. Without 1,237 delegates pledged to either candidate, the Republican nominee is theoretically still an open bid for newcomers in the event that no candidate collects that baseline amount.
Though it is vital to understand that the Republican nomination has not yet reached an insert-poster-candidate-here tipping point (as not all states have yet held their primary elections and, therefore, not all delegates have been pledged), the GOP is rumored to be trying for a potential “dark horse” to throw into the mix at the Republican National Convention in July.
As soon as next week, the Republican National Committee is set to convene and discuss rewriting the rulebook that has typically governed the event. Such a discussion was brought about by way of a proposal penned by Solomon Yue, a sitting Rules Committee member in the state of Oregon who doubles as an RNC officer. Mr. Yue’s proposal deals primarily with the conduct of the delegates assigned to the Convention. Notably, a portion of the proposal could fundamentally alter the Republican race. Mr. Yue’s suggestions could indefinitely tailor the way that party leaders are able to draft a so-called “dark horse” should neither Cruz nor Trump acquire 1,237 delegates.
Though, as Alex Isenstadt of POLITICO hypothesizes, Mr. Yue’s proposal could likely be sidelined until the Republican National Convention draws nearer. Mr. Yue’s procedural formula would deviate from the typical standard (in which delegates are controlled, in some sense, by an empowered presiding officer) and shift instead to Robert’s Rules of Order. The latter would allow for the delegates to openly question or make objections for the duration of the proceedings. Mr. Yue argues that this switch would allow for near political transparency – an extremely hot commodity in this year’s election – a factor that could soothe an agitated Republican base.
Regardless of whether Mr. Yue’s proposal is axed, the idea of entering a substitute candidate into the race is not a profoundly new one. But as Speaker Ryan continues to deny his entering into a bid for the White House, the Republican base may never receive the metaphorical white knight they seem to be hoping for.
Despite Gallup, Inc. polling that shows a vast majority of Republicans are holding out for a candidate that adheres to their core values and principles – a candidate similar, if not identical to the current Speaker – they are not likely to get one unless the Convention ends in a deadlock tie.
If Mr. Ryan’s reluctance is a political power play, as Ryan Lizza, writing for The New Yorker, suggests, then his rejection of a potential White House bid may not be so firm after all. In any event, it will be a summer of bated breath for the average Republican.
