Once identified by George Bush (along with Iraq and North Korea) as part of the "Axis of evil", Iran has been increasingly cooperative in its dealings with the international community regarding their controversial nuclear weapons programs. On August 12, 2015, Switzerland's Federal Council lifted sanctions on Iran and highlighted the importance for bilateral talks. The small nation has long maintained a policy of neutrality, emphasizing "a consistent, neutral and balanced policy with regard to Iran. Before Switzerland's lifting of the US and UN-backed sanctions, the P5+1 (made up of China, France, the United Kingdom, the US, Germany and Russia) and Iran met in Lausanne to discuss parameters for a deal.
Under the deal, Iran would only produce nuclear materials at their Natanz facility, which would have to be open to international inspectors. In return, the European Union and American sanctions would be lifted, while framework to reimpose said sanctions in the event of noncompliance would remain in place. Iran has long been seen as a sleeping economic giant, whose power has been crippled by these sanctions. Riding the wave of liberalization, Iran might have the ability to increase its political and economic power.
As part of the lucrative deal, Iran would be allowed to export oil around the world. According to OPEC, Iran currently exports around 53.6 million dollars worth of crude oil. Moreover, it has the fourth largest oil reserves in the world and pumps 2.8 Million barrels a day. Furthermore, the Iranian Oil Minister, Bijan Zanganeh wants to pump an additional 1.5 Million barrels a day. Under Zanganeh's plan, Iran would pump roughly 4.2 Million barrels a day, moving from the seventh largest producer in the world, to potentially fourth or fifth largest. With the change in oil production could come a destabilization in the market.
Iran's aging aviation industry could potentially benefit from the easement of sanctions, which would provide efficient and safer transportation across the Middle East. Currently, the average age of an Iran Air jet is around 28 years. The relatively old age of the fleet has caused more than 200 accidents, resulting in 25 deaths in the last 25 years. The UN-funded International Civil Aviation Organization released a statement in 2005, proclaiming that: “Aviation safety, as it affects human life and human rights, stands above political differences.” However, the United States along with several European countries prohibit the sale of airplanes and maintenance parts to Iran. Despite the embargo, Iran acquired 15 new jets in the Winter of 2015. Investigators have suspected the Iraqi airline Al-Naser Airlines was used as a front to smuggle the American-made aircraft to the Iranian airline, Mahan Air. According to the U.S. State Department, Mahan Air was used by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to covertly transport military equipment to Syria. Such equipment was used by Hezbollah and the brutal Asad regime. The Iranian Civil Aviation director Mohammad Khodakaram stated if sanctions were removed, "Iran will buy a total of 80 to 90 planes a year from the two aviation giants in the first phase of renovating its air fleet." Even more notably, the Iranian transportation Director, Abbas Akhoundi wants to embark upon a $20 Billion fleet modernization program which would include 400 planes.
The modernization plan is nothing short of aggressive, but would provide Iran and the rest of the Middle East with safe air travel options. However, Iran would have to embark upon a campaign of transparency and not back internationally condemned regimes in order to reap the benefits of an unsanctioned economy.
The economic power of Iran is massive, and could potentially serve as a model for "post-sanction" economies. However, with power comes responsibility. Will Iran become more cooperative with the global community? Will they continue their support for questionable regimes? What the future holds is uncertain, but economic prosperity and success appears to be on the Horizon for the Iranian people.
