Super Tuesday proved super indeed for Donald J. Trump, who won seven of the 11 states holding primaries and captured 237 delegates in the process. Trump's success in the political arena, which was the subject of mockery only a few months ago, is now undeniable.
With Trump being one step closer to the GOP nomination, a lot of pressure is being placed on establishment Republicans who have about has much disdain for the billionaire real estate mogul as they do for Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. Marco Rubio's foreign policy advisor was even quoted in The New York Times saying he would "sooner vote for Joseph Stalin" than for Trump. The question on many people's minds is whether or not a third party conservative will enter the race and try to bring an end to Trump's reign.
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The current American democratic process is such that it always creates a system of two parties that compete for office. Third and fourth parties stand almost no chance, and as time goes on, those who would be third party candidates join the closest mainstream party or drop out of the race and rally behind the person who most closely resembles their views. This is why Rand Paul didn't run as a Libertarian and why Sanders isn't running as an independent.
The fact that it's almost impossible for a third party candidate to win the presidency makes tossing another conservative into the race on a different ticket a daring strategy. In fact, the very existence of a third party conservative would only help to propel the Democratic nominee to the White House.
Suppose Trump and Clinton get their parties' respective nominations and an outraged group of traditional conservatives form a third party. Let's call them the Status Quo Rules party. Conservative voters, who may not like Trump but are going to vote Republican regardless, now have two options. The Status Quo Rules candidate will capture the anti-Trump conservative vote and could also bring some conservatives who are on the fence over to their side.
It's easy to see how the Status Quo Rules party can indirectly help bring about a Clinton victory. By stealing Republican voters away from Trump, both conservative parties can split enough votes so neither wins the election, and the only possible outcome is Clinton emerging victorious. The key word here is enough. It's certainly possible the Status Quo Rules party has no effect on conservative voters and Trump will win anyway, but the existence of this third party makes it much more likely the Democrat will win.
Elections in the U.S. are flawed in this regard: a third party candidate increases the likelihood of victory for the candidate least similar to the third party. But it's possible for this flaw to prove advantageous for establishment Republicans who believe their party is in dire straits.
Trump's success has proven that the modern Republican party is undergoing a transformation. In order to save their party, in the long run, Republicans may have to perform the third party ritual sacrifice, deal with a Democrat in the White House for a third consecutive term, catch their breath and regroup.
