The days standing between Senator Sanders and the first primary election in Iowa on February 1st are dwindling. Yet unlike the Clinton campaign, Bernie’s public support is reaching its peak with near perfect timing.
In the latest poll conducted by Quinnipiac University, the Sanders campaign is witnessed passing Ms. Clinton in Iowa and increasing its lead in New Hampshire. Indeed, the poll finds that 49 percent of likely Democratic Caucus participants in Iowa favor Senator Sanders, whereas 44 percent plan on backing Clinton.
While the support for Bernie’s campaign exceeding Clinton’s in Iowa in the latest poll is remarkable, what’s even more noteworthy is the fact that Sanders’ support has greatly increased in such a short time. The results of the same University’s study released on December 15th showed Clinton garnering 51 percent of likely Iowa democrats and Sanders pulling in 40 percent.
That’s a seven-point drop for Clinton and a nine-point increase for Sanders—and that is what’s truly telling. Although the gap between 49 and 44 percent support ratings is not especially colossal or insurmountable, especially considering the margin of error of polls of this sort, the fact that Sander’s is increasing in popularity while Clinton is losing her grip on voter approval is what truly denotes the most likely outcome of the upcoming primaries: a Sanders victory.
This evolution in voter loyalty can be a blessing or a curse for a candidate; in this case, it has worked to Bernie’s advantage.
In New Hampshire, Sanders has been maintaining an edge over Clinton; and as Iowans have not fully made up their minds in terms of their desired candidate, residents of New Hampshire are reportedly much more decided—the majority of them saying their mind is made up.
It has taken time, but as it seems now, the Sanders campaign is in for a great result in the primary election. With momentum carrying Mr. Sanders through the summer and in to the full-fledged campaign trail in the fall, a perfect storm has been brewing for the Vermont senator.
If the polls prove to be true, we can expect to see a victory for Bernie in Iowa and New Hampshire. With that momentum, the Clinton campaign would be hard pressed to garner the nomination.
This will only happen with a strong voter turnout, though, especially considering the demographics of a large majority of Bernie supporters.
Learn how to vote for Bernie in the primaries here.