This year marks the ninth straight season that a rookie quarterback has started Week 1 in the NFL. However, the amount of success this year's rookie quarterbacks have achieved so far has been unprecedented. But who's the best of the bunch?
The list of rookie quarterbacks who have played in at least one game this season is quite long, and we're only five weeks into the season. Carson Wentz has started all four games for the Eagles, who had a bye week in Week 4. Dak Prescott has started all five games for the Cowboys, taking over for the injured Tony Romo in the preseason. Trevor Siemian, who was actually drafted last year but hadn't thrown a single pass until this year, has started four games for the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos. An injury to Siemian last week cleared the way for fellow rookie Paxton Lynch to play in his first career game and get his first start yesterday. Jacoby Brissett and Cody Kessler have also gotten a chance to start for the Patriots and Browns, respectively, due to injuries. Ironically, the No.1 overall pick in this year's draft, quarterback Jared Goff, has yet to suit up for the Los Angeles Rams.
Now that we've gotten the list of contestants out of the way, let's analyze who is the premier quarterback of the group. Goff, Brissett, Kessler, and Lynch have not played enough to be considered the winner. Although, Lynch and Brissett have shown flashes of competency in their brief outings. This leaves us with Wentz, the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, Prescott, the 135th overall pick in the draft, and Siemian, the 250th overall pick of last year's draft.
Before looking into the numbers, I'll start out by saying each quarterback has benefited from being in a great situation. Wentz has former offensive coordinator and NFL quarterback Doug Pederson coaching him up. Prescott has the luxury of playing behind the best offensive line in the league and having weapons such as Dez Bryant and fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott at his disposal. Siemian has the best defense in the NFL to bail him out and got to spend a full year with future Hall of Famer, Peyton Manning.
Now, let's look at the numbers.
Through four games, Wentz has gone 91-135 for 1,007 yards, which is good for a 67.4 completion percentage. He has thrown seven touchdowns and one interception. He has also ran the ball 11 times for 35 yards and has a quarterback rating of 103.5. He's led the Eagles to a 3-1 start. His ability to read defenses and make quick, smart decisions has been the key to his success. He has a strong arm and is quite mobile, although he hasn't run as much as he did at North Dakota State, yet.
After five games, Prescott has gone 107-155 for 1,239 yards, completing 69 percent of his throws. He has thrown four touchdowns with no interceptions and has ran the ball 19 times for 61 yards and three touchdowns. His quarterback rating is 101.5. It's no secret that taking care of the football has been the key to Dak's success. He is closing in on Tom Brady's record of 162 straight passing attempts without an interception to open a career. Like Wentz, Prescott also has a strong arm. He is dangerous with his legs, too, but hasn't gotten the chance to fully show it yet. Dak doesn't force the ball under pressure he and mostly takes what the defense gives him. He's led the Cowboys to a 4-1 start.
Through three games and part of a fourth game, Siemian has gone 68-101 for 824 yards, good for a completion percentage of 67.3. He's thrown six touchdowns and three interceptions and has a quarterback rating of 99.6. Siemian has not been intimidated by replacing Peyton Manning but instead, he's been fearless, taking shots down the field to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. He has nice poise in the pocket and decent arm strength. He's been a pleasant surprise for Denver thus far. However, he is currently sidelined with a shoulder injury.
While all three of these young signal callers have had success, turning the ball over in this league is simply unforgivable. It is possibly the worst thing a quarterback can do. Siemian has thrown three interceptions already in just 3+ games while Wentz and Prescott have thrown one combined. For that reason, and for him not being a true first year rookie, I have to eliminate Trevor Siemian. He's got a bright future, but he's just one step behind the NFC East rookies at this point.
That leaves us with Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz and Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. I don't think it's a surprise that it has come down to these two. They've been fantastic. Mistakes have been few and far between -- if at all. Highlights have been plentiful. And it will be a sight to see on Oct. 30 in Dallas when Wentz's Eagles take on Dak's Cowboys, assuming Tony Romo hasn't returned by then.
They're so similar. Two smart guys who don't turn the ball over and are natural born leaders. Two guys who have strong, accurate arms and can scramble for a first down and more when needed. Their stats are eerily similar too. Wentz has a completion percentage of 67.4, averaging 7.5 yards per pass. Prescott completes 69 percent, averaging 8 yards per pass. Wentz has thrown seven touchdown passes and Prescott has seven total touchdowns (4 passing, 3 rushing). They even have similar quarterback ratings with Wentz at 103.5 and Dak at 101.5.
However, the biggest gap between them comes in the ESPN stat Total QBR (quarterback rating). ESPN defines Total QBR as,
"... it incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. Also, since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context and then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency."
The stat, which was created in 2011, puts a number value on everything a quarterback does in a game and it is measured on a scale of 0-100, with 50 being average. It is not the end-all, be-all for quarterback comparisons but it is an accurate representation of how each quarterback is playing. And in this case, it needs to break a tie between two nearly identical signal callers.
Dak Prescott's Total QBR is 84, which ranks third in the NFL. Carson Wentz ranks 15th at 61.1.
So I am giving the slight edge to Dak Prescott.
The 23-year-old out of Mississippi State has been slightly better than Carson Wentz this season and he's the bigger surprise. Wentz was taken second overall. Prescott had to wait until the fourth round to come off the board. He took the league by storm in the preseason and has improved every week. He is only going to get better. Dak has been on the money on nearly every short and intermediate throw. He's not terrible at taking shots down the field either, but those throws have been few and far between. He'll eventually start throwing it deep more frequently and that's when we'll learn just how good he is.
It's safe to say that the Cowboys and Eagles have found their quarterbacks of the future. But at this point and time, it's Dak's world and we're just living in it.