Imagine if you will, the international community as an annual family gathering. The United States has matured enough that the United Kingdom treats it as an equal, rather than as a rebellious child. Russia is the alcoholic uncle who seems to get crazier every year and always has a dash cam in his car. Israel and Palestine are constantly bickering siblings, except that when Palestine hits Israel, and Israel retaliates, Israel gets blamed for the whole thing (a gross simplification, but let’s not go there). And in the corner, tearing the legs off ladybugs and knocking over vases and priceless family heirlooms, is North Korea. You know, that annoying, incredibly misbehaved younger cousin that threatens to beat up its twin (South Korea in this metaphor, for those of you keeping track), and who you think might grow up to be a serial killer. But for now, that younger cousin is just making a lot of noise, and nobody dares shut him up because his uncle, China, backs him up. Now, imagine if that younger cousin (still North Korea, stick with me) got a nuke. Okay, well for the sake of the metaphor let’s say he’s gotten his hands on a slingshot. The younger cousin could potentially cause some serious damage, maybe even takes out his twin’s eye. But, as soon as that younger cousin uses that slingshot, every adult at the family gathering is going to come down harder on him than a nun on a catholic school student who messed up The Lord’s Prayer. At least, that’s what the adults say they will do.
As of this past weekend, North Korea is one step closer to getting that slingshot. Despite both warnings and condemnations from the United Nations, North Korea has launched a long-range rocket, under the guise of putting a satellite in orbit. However, the United States, Japan and South Korea all believe the launch to be part of North Korea’s larger plan to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). To make matters worse, North Korea also announced last month they had carried out their first hydrogen bomb test, which would be their fourth nuclear device test overall. While North Korea’s only ally, China, has condemned both actions, it also insists that any action taken by the United States, Japan or South Korea would only escalate the situation.
For those who fell asleep in history class, let me bring you up to speed on how we even got to this situation in the first place. After World War II, the USSR and US forces split Korea in two, with the Soviets occupying the North, and the Americans occupying the South. Then, in 1950, communist North Korea invaded democratic South Korea to spark the first proxy conflict of the Cold War. The US jumped to South Korea’s defense, but the conflict quickly turned into a stalemate. The US ended up seeking an armistice to end the fighting before Russia and China got fully involved. What’s interesting to note, however, is that the Korean War isn’t even officially over. We signed an armistice, not a treaty, the former of which is a much more temporary measure. Even now, over half a century later, the Korean Demilitarized Zone (the new border between the two countries that runs across the 38th parallel) is still heavily fortified and packed with tens of thousands of North Korean, South Korean and US troops.
So what do North Korea’s recent actions mean for the state of the two countries? Well, if the United States, South Korea and Japan are to be believed, North Korea is still gathering strength to one day invade South Korea again. The United States remains committed to protecting South Korea and China, at least for the time being, supports North Korea. If North Korea does indeed invade South Korea again, it’ll be interesting to see if the resulting conflict will be another proxy war, or if China will finally distance itself from its volatile neighbor.
