It's the night of Wednesday, August 26th. The Texas Rangers had just lost to the Toronto Blue Jays 12-4, dropping their record to 64-61 and essentially destroying any postseason hopes the team had. According to FanGraphs, their chance of winning the division was 4.7%.
Fast forward exactly one month from then to Saturday, September 26th. Their record now sits at 84-70, they lead their division by three and half games, and their chance of winning their division according to FanGraphs is 90.7%.
So what's happened during the past month? They've gone 14-8 against their division, including a four-game sweep against the former division leaders Houston Astros, which you can see represented by that nearly vertical blue line after the September mark in the graph above.
Besides the opponents they've played, it's hard to say what's triggered this run by the Rangers. Maybe they've gotten angry after playing in 90 degree heat consistently and are channeling their frustration into their play. Maybe they felt slighted by the Dallas Cowboys' hot start to their own season and got competitive. However, the most likely explanation has to be that they borrowed some of Michael Jordan's secret stuff.
Whatever it is, it's worked. Over the past 30 days, the Rangers have the third-highest on-base percentage (OBP) in baseball, as well as the fourth-lowest strikeout percentage. On the other side of things, they have the third-lowest ERA over that timeframe, with their relievers actually being the best in baseball by that measure.
Now the thing that everybody wants to know is whether or not they will keep this up. Well, in terms of winning the division, it'd be pretty hard for them not to at this point. With just about 8 games left and that three and a half game lead, it would take a meltdown for the Rangers to not win the division (to any Rangers fans out there reading this, I swear I'm not trying to jinx you).
Once they get to the playoffs though, their fate is less certain, as many of the numbers they have posted during this 30-day stretch are unsustainable. For example, while they had the league leading relief ERA of 1.87, their relief FIP was 2.81, still good for third but nowhere near as dominant as their performance would have you believe.
So how far will they go? In a sport as unpredictable as this one, that question is impossible to answer. FanGraphs gives them a 8.9% chance to win it all, which is much higher than it was a month ago and higher than all but three other teams. But in the end, only time will tell. Time, and maybe Back To The Future.