People are surprising by their very nature. When given a chance to succeed, there will always be individuals who step up and profit on that opportunity; and this rings truer nowhere than in the world of sports. Over the years, sports analyses have become more concrete and accurate, often portending a teams season quite well. But that doesn’t mean analysts don’t occasionally miss the proverbial diamond in the rough. A recent example of this is the NBA’s Portland Trailblazers in the 2015-2016 basketball season. To give some much-needed background, in the season ending in 2015, the Trailblazers finished with a record of fifty-one wins and thirty-three losses, placing them fifth in the Western Conference—even despite the fact that the record would have placed third in the less powerful Eastern Conference.

Despite this relatively successful finish, Portland faced many problems coming into the 2015-2016 season. As Brett Koremenos from realgm.com puts it, “After injuries contributed to a disappointing finish last season, a mass exodus of key contributors have left Portland a shell of the 51-win team last season. The front office has assembled an intriguing collection of youth in their place to grow along star point guard Damian Lillard as the Blazers rebuild on the fly in a loaded Western Conference.” Obviously, hopes were not high for Portland fans prior to this season; yet here we are, in the 2016 post-season with the Trailblazers ranked fifth in the Western Conference just as they were last year. There are three main factors to this success that I plan to discuss—the philosophy and planning of the coaching and executive team, the lessened competition in the Western Conference as a whole, and the surprising ability of new acquisitions.

The first notable decision by the executives in Portland was regarding Nicolas Batum, the French guard who had played in Portland for a few years prior. In a trade with the Charlotte Hornets, Batum was essentially exchanged for Gerald Henderson, Noah Vonleh, and ???. While Vonleh never quite stood up to the contributions expected from him, Henderson became a key contributor for Portland’s offense off the bench, as I will discuss further later. On the other hand, Nicholas Batum had in many ways declined in the 2014-2015 season, contributing less to the Trailblazers than he had in the season before. Batum has improved and remains a critical piece to Charlotte’s team, but he unreliability while in Portland made this a very important acquisition in the 2015 pre-season.

Another influence came from the team’s owner, Paul Allen. With great faith in the Trailblazers’ emerging squad of youngsters, Allen shelled out a great deal of cash for the team’s roster, including a huge maximum contract to star Damian Lillard as well as significant signings for free agents Al-Farouq Aminu and Ed Davis, both of which became key contributors, especially on the defensive end.

In the 2014-2015 NBA season, fans and analysts alike were shocked by the difference in overall talent between the Western and Eastern Conferences. Many considered the Cleveland Cavaliers to be the only serious championship contenders from the east, while the west was packed with serious teams vying for seats in the playoffs, with many even entertaining hopes of a stab at the championship. However, things changed when the 2015-2016 season rolled around, especially in the west. Over the course of the season, the Golden State Warriors, the San Antonio Spurs, and the Oklahoma City Thunder, ranked first, second, and third respectively, have dominated the Western Conference, while teams that were competitive in 2014-2015, such as the Houston Rocket, the New Orleans Pelicans, and of course the Portland Trailblazers, have ranged from taking a step down compared to the previous year to nose-diving into the bowels of the standings: long story short, things just weren’t as hotly competitive in the west.

And while the Trailblazers undeniably did take a small step down from the season prior, this relative weakness in their conference helped give the team the opportunity to succeed like they have. The Blazers were able to find wins against teams they have struggled against in the past—the Phoenix Suns, the Los Angeles Clippers—not to mention they handed the first seeds in both conferences thirty-point blowouts. And despite the top of the west being arguably the best basketball currently has to offer, the bottom of the Western Conference standings have plummeted, meaning teams in the middle like the Blazers, Clippers, and Mavericks could pick up several easy wins against clubs like the LA Lakers or the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The last and certainly most important cause of the Trailblazers’ success comes from the players. The group that the Blazers put together can be seen as a bit of a miracle. Almost every piece to the Blazers’ offensive and defensive puzzle far surpassed expectations, save for star point guard Damian Lillard and perhaps mediocre center Mason Plumlee. The first of many who shattered expectations was Lillard’s wingman and fellow guard, CJ McCollum. Drafted for the 2013-2014 season and playing all three years since in Portland, McCollum was injured most of his rookie year and, simply put, a scrub on the bench last season. His minutes and contributions were minimal, save for one explosive playoff game against Houston in 2014. Yet, that game against Houston ended up being a glimpse at what was to come from the young guard. In the 2015-16 season, McCollum has cemented himself as an aggressive scorer, averaging over twenty points per game, and even came away with the 2016 Most Improved Player Award. This was a huge boon to the Portland offense, as McCollum provides rest for Lillard and allows the Blazer offense to produce efficiently without all five starters in the game. In addition, he accounts for solid foul shot accuracy—82.7% to be exact—and puts up a few rebounds and assists most every game.

Another huge contribution has come from the Trailblazer frontcourt through forwards Al-Farouq Aminu and Maurice Harkless. Aminu has brought to Portland tremendous defensive pressure to compliment Plumlee’s length on post defense. Aminu’s shooting is streaky at best—though he dropped 30 points, including six three-pointers against the Clippers in the playoffs—but his defensive presence makes him efficient to have on the floor. Similarly, Harkless, standing at six-foot-nine and sporting incredibly lanky arms, has improved steadily over the course of the season, averaging almost twelve points, seven rebounds, and a block per game in April. In the same way as Aminu, Harkless’s aggressive nature on both ends of the floor makes him a threat, most notably by grabbing fifty-fifty rebounds and amassing points through put-backs.

The final pieces to this youthful puzzle perfectly compliment Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum in the backcourt—and their names are Allen Crabbe and Gerald Henderson. Crabbe has produced significant points off the bench—averaging over ten per game this season—despite playing limited minutes in most games. Crabbe is also infamous for his solid defensive and reaction time, often forcing turnovers or grabbing steals from broken plays. Gerald Henderson, on the other hand, plays a slightly different, but still important, role. At age twenty-eight, he is the oldest player on the team to play in the normal rotation. Though he hasn’t developed the offensive numbers he had while playing in Charlotte, he provides more of a veteran presence to spur on and encourage the younger players as they grow.

In conclusion, the Portland Trailblazers were expected to tank: the Vegas Line over-under for their 2015-16 season was 26.5—abysmal for those who aren’t familiar with the league. However, with nothing to lose from the outset, the Trailblazers’ motley unit of young improving talent rallied in a failing Western Conference to collect forty-four wins—near doubling the most trusted predictions—behind the brilliant coaching of head coach Terry Stotts. But it was the combination of the coaching and executive staff, the fall of other teams in the conference, and the exceptional play by the Blazers themselves that brought the club back to it’s fifth-place spot that it held the two years prior. Now we watch the Blazers as they venture into the first round of the playoffs, uncertainty circling whether or not they will advance. But regardless of their postseason endeavors, the Portland Trailblazers surely exceeding all expectations the world had put on them.