2016, oh how long you were. Just 12 months ago we were in the throes of the Iowa caucuses, the inanity of the Bernie fanaticism and abroad saw destruction and devastation in Syria. The international order received a significant shakeup with corruption charges towards the South Korean head of state, Russia’s intervention in United States elections and human rights atrocities in Syria, as well as Britain’s successful referendum to leave the European Union. Not to mention the election of Donald Trump, a man who certainly will disrupt and recalibrate the United States’s international involvement, setting precedent for decades to come.
All in all, politically speaking (around the world and in the United States), 2016 was a year of change and uncertainty. We look into 2017 with many thoughts, concerns and hopes. What will Donald Trump’s positions and actions be as a leader? Will Euroscepticism continue to divide the European Union and its members (all eyes are on France’s presidential candidate Marine Le Pen)? How will China and Russia behave in the new year? For South Korea’s new leader: how will they govern and establish peace on the Korean Peninsula? For the entire international world order: how will the Syrian crisis be addressed?
While so many questions will always exist regarding the future, we are embarking upon an age when we know pretty much nothing about what the future may hold.
In the United States, Donald Trump has no political background or firm policy positions that we can use to draw conclusions as to how he will operate as president. His own lack of consistency brings concern for everyone regardless of their political standings. Conservative Republicans hope that he will adhere to their idealism, but his economical pragmatism may ultimately lead to disappointment and the degradation of conservative values (although such would be unlikely considering he does not want to abandon his voting base). Democrats’ concerns are too many to list.
For Europe, 2016 brought a host of concerns and conclusions. Britain held a referendum to leave the European Union, while the Union itself cannot come to a conclusion regarding the refugee crisis originating in the Middle East. Austria narrowly staved off the election of a nationalist head of state. With the rise of nationalism and Euroscepticism throughout the European Union, Liberal values will certainly be under attack. Cooperation and interdependency are the only ways by which Europe can solve the refugee crisis, and hopefully keep its nationalistic tendencies from rising.
Russia and China both pose challenges to America’s hegemony (primary global leadership and power role), and both are going to prove challenging to confront. Russia’s meddling in Syria and the United States’s election pose a challenge to America’s leadership and vision. It is entirely up to president-elect Trump to either confront Russia or to allow the continuation of its play for global relevance.
China’s continued presence in the South China Sea shows a commitment to establishing maritime dominance and expanding its sovereignty -- unfortunately at the expense of the smaller Asian nations nearby. Both China and Russia are pursuing something that the United States cannot afford to surrender: its global supremacy. If president-elect Trump, either though action or inaction, gives that up then we are all in trouble.
But perhaps, despite the state of our world, things may not be so bleak in the future. Despite the fact that 2016 challenged us in our understanding of politics and the world, such discomfort is neither permanent nor unstoppable. As an American, I look forward to 2017, because despite the shaking up of the world order that 2016 has brought, 2017 carries with it potential and perhaps the slimmest glimmer of hope.