The 89th Academy Awards will be held on Sunday February 26th, 2017. But, before you sit down to watch the Awards show hosted by Jimmy Kimmel, take a look at my predictions for who the winners will be and who I think actually should win.
In some cases, they will overlap. But, there are other factors to take into account when considering who the members of the Academy of Motion Pictures will pick including box office intake and awards season buzz.
Here are my picks.
Best Picture
Will Win: "La La Land"
"La La Land" tied the record for most nominations for a single movie with 14. And rightly so. Everything in this movie is gorgeous, from the lighting to the acting to the music to the editing. It's pulling in so many major awards from the other ceremonies and is one of the most talked about movies of the year. This movie deserves the Best Picture Oscar. However...
Should Win: "Moonlight"
I don't know how many people agree with me on this, but Barry Jenkins' moving portrayal of boy growing up in drug-riddled Miami should win the Oscar for Best Picture. Don't get me wrong. "La La Land" is a near perfect movie. But, so is "Moonlight". It's such a cinematic experience and something truly new. This is a movie representing a community that is so underrepresented in Hollywood. And yet we all can feel empathy for Chiron, the main character, seamlessly played by three different actors. When two perfect, beautiful, poignant movies are competing for Best Picture, it's hard to choose a clear winner. But, giving "Moonlight" the Best Picture award would be a win for Hollywood and a win for America in these trying times of 2017.
Best Director
Will Win/Should Win: Damien Chazelle "La La Land"
Chazelle has only directed two feature length movies, and yet he is already an auteur and probably one of the most sought after directors in Hollywood now. His direction in "La La Land" is seamless. He had such a clear picture of this world he was crafting and it's perfect. The audience is pulled into this dreamlike world and never lets us go. Chazelle is the front runner to win, and he definitely should.
Best Actor
Will Win: Casey Affleck "Manchester by the Sea"
Casey Affleck is sweeping the Awards circuit. He's won almost every top Actor prize for his role as a troubled Uncle who has to care for his nephew after his nephew's parents pass away. Honestly, I haven't seen "Manchester by the Sea," and I've heard great things. So, I want to make the case for his best opposition.
Should Win: Denzel Washington "Fences"
This is Denzel's seventh Oscar nomination for acting. And he also won the Tony when he portrayed the character on the stage. That's because he plays the role of a poor father in 1950's Pittsburgh so well. He lives and breathes in this role and it's the best role I've seen him play since "Training Day."
Best Actress
Will Win/Should Win: Emma Stone "La La Land"
Like Casey Affleck, Emma Stone is pulling in all the major awards. And she totally deserves it. Stone was already a breakout star long before "La La Land," but this sent her above and beyond. She took over for another talented actress, Emma Watson, and yet I can't imagine anyone else playing Mia. Emma Stone was perfectly cast and filled the hearts of moviegoers this year.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win/ Should Win: Mahershala Ali "Moonlight"
My dude Mahershala Ali had come a long way from his supporting role in "House of Cards." And, man, did he have himself a year. He played the villain Cottonmouth in "Luke Cage" and starred in not one, but two movies nominated for Best Picture ("Moonlight" and "Hidden Figures"). And his role in "Moonlight" was moving. He plays the most sympathetic drug dealer on the big screen and was incredible as a mentor to our main character. He deserves this role and deserves his place as a household name.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Will Win/Should Win: Viola Davis "Fences"
Along with Denzel Washington, she played and won the Tony Award for playing the same character on Broadway. "Fences" is an incredibly character-driven movie and would not work without its leads. And Viola Davis shines in the role of Washington's wife. She is another character that audiences can relate to and one that we can love. We feel her pain and we feel her happiness. Viola Davis is a force to be reckoned with in Hollywood.
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Will Win / Should Win: "Moonlight"
I want to argue against "Moonlight" and give my vote to "Arrival," but I can't. The screenplay to "Moonlight is seamless. Everything flows together so smoothly. Every scene crafted perfectly. The dialogue moving and realistic. It is truly a feat to bring this story originally written as a play to the movie screen.
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Will Win: "La La Land"
Chazelle expertly writes the script for "La La Land." Fully developed characters. Wonderful scenes. It's imaginative, yet completely down to earth and grounded in reality. it's won all the screenplay awards thus far. Yet, everything else in this movie is crafted so wonderfully that it masks how simple the screenplay is.
Should Win: "Manchester by the Sea"
But, this screenplay is stronger. So much emotion and dynamic characters. Manchester by the Sea could definitely go home empty handed from the Oscar Ceremony, but this is one category that it rightly deserves a win.
Best Film Editing
Will Win/Should Win: "La La Land"
Just like last year's "Mad Max Fury Road," it looks like "La La Land" can go for a full sweep in the technical Oscar categories. "La La Land" has a great mix of long takes, montage sequences, and incredible visual tricks. It is an experience to sit and watch this movie on the big screen, never being taken out of the action. "La La Land" has this Oscar locked down.
Best Cinematography
Will Win/Should Win: "La La Land"
Once again, "La La Land" is running away with this award. This is the best cinematography in years. Beautiful lighting, wonderful colors, and expertly shot long takes. From the very first sequence, a long take on the Los Angeles highway, you know that this is going to be a film to marvel at. And it never lets up.
Best Production Design
Will Win/Should Win: "La La Land"
You might be getting tired of me talking about this film. And if you are, then you probably won't want to tune into the Oscar's on Sunday, because you'll hear this film get called out all night. On a serious note, this film had incredible set, taking me into a world of jazz, Hollywood auditions, and the imagination of dreams. The whole epilogue alone could get this film the award for production design.
Best Costume Design
Will Win: "La La Land"
I just find it hard to imagine the Academy taking a different direction in this category. "La La Land" had the theme of bright colors sticking out and it works. One scene that comes to mind is Mia dancing in the streets with her roommates, each popping out of the screen with beautiful, bright dresses.
Should Win: "Jackie"
This film could definitely give "La La Land" a run for its money. "Jackie" recreated a time period with perfect design. Each outfit making Natalie Portman stick out on the screen. This will be the closest race for "La La Land" to win.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win/Should Win: "Star Trek Beyond"
Only three films get nominated in this category. And when one of those movies is "Suicide Squad," so it's really only two films. And "Star Trek Beyond" will come out on top. The Makeup team did a great job at creating the recognizable alien creatures of the "Star Trek" universe. Also, they made Idris Elba unattractive, so that's a feat in and of itself.
Best Music (Original Score)
Will Win/Should Win: "La La Land"
This is another runaway category. The music for "La La Land" is perfect and makes the movie. Without the repeated tunes of "Mia and Sebastian's Theme" or "Another Day of Sun," this movie would not work as well. It perfectly encapsulates the feeling of love and ambition that the movie creates. Justin Hurwitz's score will win the Oscar.
Best Music (Original Song)
Will Win: "La La Land" - 'City of Stars'
this is a great song. Character motivation revealed in about two stanzas. Yet, I think the best song of "La La Land" was 'Another Day of Sun' and that wasn't even nominated. Even still, the academy will award "La La Land" the Oscar for best song.
Should Win: "Moana" - 'How Far I'll Go'
Disney knows how to write empowering songs for it's main characters. I mean, is it truly a Disney animated musical without the main character singing an empowering song about their goals? No. Bringing Lin Manuel-Miranda on board was the right choice, and he wrote a great song for this movie. He deserves the Awards Grand slam (Oscar, Tony, Grammy, Emmy).
Best Sound Editing
Will Win/Should Win: "Hacksaw Ridge"
Without good sound effects in a war movie, the movie usually fails to submerge the audience in the experience. The team behind "Hacksaw Ridge" did a wonderful job in recreating the atmosphere of World War II. It will be a close race with "Arrival," but "Hacksaw Ridge" takes the edge.
Best Sound Mixing
Will Win/Should Win: "La La Land"
Musicals usually do a great job at mixing the music and background sound in with the visuals. "La La Land" is no exception. The music becomes part of the world we are viewing. Another technical Oscar for the team behind "La La Land."
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: "The Jungle Book"
"The Jungle Book" was one of the most talked about movies in the first half of 2016. The visuals were gorgeous. Sometimes it actually looked like Mowgli was walking right next to a panther. Yet, the little quarrel I have with it is the facial expressions. So stagnant. I wanted to see some human emotion from Baloo.
Should Win: "Doctor Strange"
This movie is trippy. "Doctor Strange" definitely had some of the coolest visual effects in a movie in 2016. That chase scene in Manhattan with the world changing upside down and left and right was so cool. This was a unique experience and I think it deserves the Oscar for visual effects.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win/Should Win: "Zootopia"
Hopefully, it hasn't been too long for voters to remember this movie. It came out almost a year ago now, but it still is memorable. Disney's "Zootopia" was the most culturally aware animated movie I have ever seen. And yet, it doesn't strain it. It's funny. It's well written. And it's beautifully animated.
That's my picks for this year's Academy Awards. I din't include the other categories because I am not educated enough in them to make a good guess.
The story of this year's Oscar will be "La La Land," But I'm hoping for some good competition and even some surprises to breakthrough.
