The Edmonton Oilers have missed the playoffs the past two seasons despite possessing the best hockey player in the world in Connor McDavid along with additional franchise talent Leon Draisaitl. With two elite talents in a hockey focused Canadian market, there is immense pressure on the Oilers to make it back to the postseason. Here is why I believe they will miss for the third straight year.
Solid goaltending is something that every NHL team needs in order to win a Stanley Cup, let alone make the playoffs. The blue and orange do not have that on paper. They acquired Mike Smith as a free agent this offseason to backup Mikko Koskinen, who had a poor 2018-19 season. Smith is 37 and appears to be falling off after a .898 save percentage last year. Koskinen's save percentage was just .908. Anything above .915 is solid, and I don't see the Oilers getting enough from their netminders to keep enough pucks out of their net.
While having top-line offensive talent in McDavid and Draisaitl, another big issue remains their lack of high ceiling scoring depth. Trading Milan Lucic and his awful contract for another poor contract in James Neal is a good risk, but Neal has already declined significantly. Even if he has a bounce-back season, Neal is a horrible defender in part due to his poor skating. Other than Ryan Nugent Hopkins, there are very few guys that will have a shot at scoring 20+ goals. Alex Chiasson had 22 last year, but could very well drop back next year.
The Oilers' defense is not exactly stout by any definition. While including standouts Oskar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse, the rest of the group is either middling, below average, or incredibly young and inexperienced. Kris Russell at age 32 is worn out and not reliable to play the top 4 defensive minutes, but he will likely be forced to do so. Adam Larsson is serviceable, but nowhere near the talent that many believed he could be when acquired from the New Jersey Devils for Taylor Hall. Evan Bouchard is fairly likely to make the roster out of training camp, but unless he sets the world on fire as a rookie, he will be limited in his minutes and capabilities.
In terms of their prospects, Edmonton has a number of decent guys that have excelled at the AHL/junior level, but few of whom are expected to be high-level stars, especially this year. Kailer Yamamoto, their 2017 1st Round draft pick, wasn't able to stay at the NHL level last season after an incredibly rough start. Tyler Benson has been great in the WHL and AHL but is still rather unknown on what his NHL ceiling is since he hasn't played an NHL game yet. Benson has a good chance to see time with the Oilers in 2019-20.
If the Oilers struggle to start the year, which I believe will happen due to many of the issues above, plus adjusting under new head coach Dave Tippett, they will find themselves quickly scrambling to get back in or stay in the hunt for a spot. These issues will prove to be overwhelming and Edmonton will find themselves on the outside looking in once again.
