Now that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are looking ever the more inevitable, it's time to begin speculating about what a general election race between them would look like. Who would draw out more people? Who could win the most states? And, most importantly, who could actually win the Presidency?
Talking about victors and losers can bring up images of the two party system. To many, the two parties are all that exist in national politics. However, the reality is that nearly 40% of registered voters are Independent. Among Millennials, that percentage rises to 48%. That makes their positions some of the most important deciding factors in national elections. Even though once broken down, those independents tend to lean more Democratic than Republican, the trend in the last year speaks volumes to where this election could possibly go.
The first major figure to announce their candidacy for their party's nomination was Ted Cruz on March 23rd, 2015. Donald Trump announced his candidacy on June 16th, Hillary Clinton April 12th, and Bernie Sanders on May 26th. There's a tenuous relationship between registration as an independent (which reached 46% in July 2015) and today's relatively low independent count (47%). Independent voters fled mostly to the Republicans, with Democratic party membership rising only modestly in the same time frame. This would seem to lend credence to the fact that Donald Trump attracts more independent voters to party membership than does Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton. It is worth noting though that membership is essentially equal, sitting at 30% each, but 46-43 with the "leaners".
A NBC/WSJ poll found that 33% of Independent Senator Bernie Sanders' supporters couldn't see themselves for Hillary Clinton, with a similar percentage holding an unfavorable view of her. Nationwide, they both hold favorability ratings in the negatives (with Donald Trump's being nearly three times greater than Hillary Clinton's). However, in all it would seem as though in a Clinton v. Trump match up, Hillary would have the upper hand.
A race between these two juggernauts of American celebrity would bring to light three things. One: voter turnout may be significantly lower than we've seen in the last several elections. Two: turnout from otherwise unengaged Latinos and African Americans may increase, if only because of fear of Donald Trump. Three: Independent voters have huge deciding power.
The Independent voter has always held tremendous power in elections (a la Ralph Nader's 2000 Presidential campaign). In this election, their enthusiasm and turnout may shift the tides from an inevitable Clinton victory to something else. If Independents turn out at all, their votes for or against Clinton (going towards the Green Party or a Bernie Sanders write-in) could end up deciding the fate of our country for the next 4 years.
