Sports is a pretty simple concept.
Two teams (or individuals) compete against each other and there is a winner and a loser. There are no ties. Ties are worse than losses. At least in a loss you know what you did wrong, a tie tells you nothing. Most sports do not have ties--soccer is the only other sport that does it during its regular season--thankfully, but the NFL still does. Imagine paying $100 to watch your favorite team play and you leave the stadium with nothing to talk about. You’re not pumped up about a win or devastated by a loss, you’re just null. That is the worst possible reaction one can have from a sporting event.
The NFL is already a product in decline. The talent is just not there and most weeks we see that lack of talent on our television. Kickers are in steep decline following the PAT being moved back and overtime games have been a casualty. In Week 7 the Sunday night game ended in a 6-6 tie after both kickers missed chip shots. In Week 8 the Redskins and Bengals gave the London crowd an exciting 60 minutes, but left the fans hanging on the finish thanks to Dustin Hopkins missing a chip shot for the Redskins resulting in a 27-27 tie.
This is unacceptable mainly because it’s such an easy fix. The most obvious choice is adopting the college football overtime rules where the ball is placed at the 25-yard line and both teams go back and forth until a defense makes a stop. It ensures no ties, eliminates punts, and heightens the excitement significantly. This wasn’t that big of an issue when kickers were reliable, but clearly those times are gone and every kick is a pressure cooker. Let’s just pray that last week was the last tie of the season or else the ratings are going to tumble further.
Speaking of Week 9 let’s see if we can keep the momentum going. Aside from the London tie Week 8 was pretty damn good. There were exciting finishes like the Raiders walk off in Tampa Bay. Rookie rivals Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott lived up to the hype under the bright lights of Sunday night, and Tom Brady kept putting his foot in the NFL’s ass. Week 9 is shaping up to be a slight let down mainly because Brady is on a bye, but there are some candidate to pick up the slack. Home teams are in CAPS.
Falcons (-3.5) over BUCCANEERS
Is it time to start panicking about Jameis Winston? Following a hot start in Week 1 Jameis seemed primed to widen the gap between him and Marcus Mariota. Instead the opposite has happened. He’s not a dumpster fire like Brock Osweiler or Blake Bortles, but he isn’t Andrew Luck either. Through seven games Jameis has a pedestrian stat line of 1,776 yards, 13 touchdowns and 9 interceptions with a 3-4 record. Again, not bad, but not good. The good news is Mike Evans is the receiver companion most quarterbacks search their whole careers for.
Matt Ryan does not know what that search feels like because he’s had Julio Jones. Still not sure if Julio is a human or an android, but he’s considerably better than his peers. You can always measure the greatness of a player based on how opponents react to his presence on the field. When Julio was on the field last Sunday that is all the Packers cared about, setting up Mo Sanu and Devonta Freeman to get loose. The Falcons offense is here to stay and its success relies upon Julio making Madden-esque catches or absorbing attention. On Thursday he’ll do just that and maybe a little more as the Falcons avenge their Week 1 loss to the Bucs.
Prediction: Falcons 38, Buccaneers 24
Steelers (EVEN) over RAVENS
This used to be the best game of the year. It was the football hipster version of Manning vs. Brady. There were hospital shots and a lot of defense. That time has past as the Steelers have moved on to the Bengals, but anytime the Ravens line up across them there is no love lost. As of right now Ben Roethlisberger has a strong chance to play Sunday which swings this game. When Big Ben has not suited up for the Steelers in this rivalry the Ravens are 6-1. If Ben is a late scratch Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown will have to be that much better.
Both teams are coming off bye weeks and both lost their game heading into the bye. The difference? The Steelers hung around with the Patriots while the Ravens lost four straight games including back to back games at MetLife Stadium to the Jets and Giants. The Steelers are the superior team, but the Ravens should be desperate for a win. Joe Flacco is going to have to carry an offense that has been as explosive as party poppers this season if his team is going avoid a five game losing streak. Dennis Pitta and Mike Wallace are the closest things Flacco has to rely on, but don’t rule out a surprise performance from someone like Kenneth Dixon or Breshad Perriman. Rivalry games are always unpredictable especially when it’s these two.
Prediction: Ravens 23, Steelers 28
Cowboys (-7.5) over BROWNS
Jerry Jones sounds like he’s finally softening his stance on Tony Romo returning right away. All it took was for Dak Prescott to start his career 6-1 and have the Cowboys at the top of the NFC. Dak has already been named the starter this week (as if they had any other choice) and in what could be his final game as starter he gets the winless Browns. The Jets were able to toss up 31 points on the Browns defense so the Cowboys could score their season-high this week led by their two rookies. Zeke Elliott has lived up to the hype and more this season, shredding opposing defenses at will, and the Browns are barely considered an NFL defense.
If this game goes as planned Elliott will shred the Browns to pieces, Dak will make a couple big plays using play-action, and the defense will swallow up Josh McCown. As for the Browns they are not much to look at unless Terrelle Pryor is on the field. The quarterback turned receiver looks like he found a home at receiver and will be virtually the only player on Cowboys defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli’s radar. The Browns may be looking for one or two wins this season, but it should not come this week against the hottest team in football.
Prediction: Cowboys 38, Browns 21
Jaguars (+9) over CHIEFS
It’s amazing that the Chiefs are 5-2. Their best offensive player, Jamaal Charles (just placed on IR), has been gone all year as has their best defensive player, Justin Houston. Andy Reid doesn’t get nearly enough credit for what he’s done in Kansas City. The last time the Chiefs lost in Arrowhead Stadium was in Week 6 of last season. They could be without Spencer Ware who left last week with a concussion and failed his initial test Tuesday, leaving the load to Charcandrick West who should be able to fill in just fine.
The Chiefs offense doesn’t need to do too much to win this, the defense should feast on the always underwhelming Blake Bortles. It’s amazing how ineffective Bortles is in the first half and if the NFL instituted mercy rules I’m not sure he would crack 10 passing touchdowns. The Jaguars offense is the unit holding this team back, but the reason I am picking them with the points is for their ability to shine in garbage time. Bortles looks like Tom Brady when his team is down by 30-plus which sucks for Jags fans, but is good to know for people like us.
Prediction: Jaguars 24, Chiefs 31
DOLPHINS (-3.5) over Jets
The good news for the Jets is that they won two straight games. The bad news is both those games were against bad teams. It’s still not clear exactly how good the Dolphins are, but they are definitely better than the Ravens and Browns. Coming off two straight wins and a bye things are looking bright in South Beach for once. With an offensive line fully healthy running back Jay Ayjai has eclipsed 200 yards rushing in back to back wins, something only former Dolphin Ricky Williams, and Hall of Famer O.J. Simpson did. If he rushes for 200-plus again he will be the first player in league history to do so. Unfortunately for him the Jets cannot do much these days, but stopping the run is one of them.
Todd Bowles has tried to keep this Jets team afloat despite a severe lack of depth. One more key injury anywhere and this team becomes a bottom feeder if they aren’t already. Perhaps the most troubling sign is the steep decline of Darrelle Revis. Receivers are no longer afraid of Revis Island and it’s obvious that he must make the switch to free safety. On offense Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall have been constants while Ryan Fitzpatrick has been the journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick this season. Even if Fitz started playing at an average level I’m not sure that would save the Jets this season.
Prediction: Jets 17, Dolphins 23
Eagles (+3) over GIANTS
If the games looked considerably better last week it’s because it did. And because we didn’t have to watch Eli Manning play. One of the bigger flops of the season, Manning seems intent on wasting Odell Beckham’s talent. Moving on from Tom Coughlin continues to look like the wrong move with as the Giants locker room erodes more and more by the week. Coming off a bye the hope is the offense is more in sync as they prepare for their playoff push. Despite a handful of pathetic performances the Giants are in the Wild Card hunt at 4-3 and can inch closer with a win over the Eagles.
Last Sunday night the Eagles played well in a great game against the Cowboys, but ended up on the losing end. Carson Wentz played well when he wasn’t being sacked and had the Eagles up 23-13 before the Cowboys comeback. A big part of the Eagles offense slowing down was pressure in the pocket. Wentz will not have to worry about that this week as the Giants rank 31st in sacks. Only the Steelers rank worst in that category and if you remember Wentz had a field day on that defense. It may be a stretch saying Wentz does the same to the Giants, but he should have a strong showing.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Giants 24
VIKINGS (-6.5) over Lions
God has a way of humbling us and the past two weeks the Vikings have been served humble pie. They returned from their bye to an ugly loss in Philadelphia where Sam Bradford reverted back to his Eagles days. Last Monday was even worse as they let the Bears walk all over them in an upset win. (There are not many if any upset wins at pro level, but this was one of them.) What did those two losses have in common? They were both on the road. They’re still undefeated at their new home and this Sunday they can keep that undefeated streak going against a frisky Lions team. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner resigned Wednesday amid offensive struggles, which you can look at as a bad thing or a good thing. The Bills fired their OC after back to back losses then won four straight.
The Vikings may be looking to make a statement, but that doesn’t mean the Lions will roll over. Matthew Stafford has been quietly great this season as he has become the leader the team hoped he’d be when they took him first overall. Theo Riddick’s return was a sight for sore eyes for not just fantasy owners, but for the Lions. The utility back adds a dimension to the passing game that subs Justin Forsett and Zach Zenner simply cannot replicate. Riddick will not tear up the Vikings like Jordan Howard did last Monday, but he will be key to the Lions offense putting up points as Xavier Rhodes is sure to eliminate Marvin Jones or Golden Tate from the equation.
Prediction: Lions 16, Vikings 24
Panthers (-3) vs. RAMS
There is some fight left in the defending NFC champs after all. With their backs pressed against the wall the Panthers beat the shit out of the Cardinals. The defense was nasty, swallowing Carson Palmer up whole on several occasions. The offense was a little less dominant, specifically Cam Newton. The reigning MVP was quiet by his standard totalling 255 yards (212 passing, 43 rushing) and took some suspect hits that went unflagged. The NFL should be embarrassed that this is still happening to Newton after that vicious headhunting job by the Broncos defense on opening night.
This week the Rams better be careful with how they approach Newton especially with Greg Williams (Saints defensive coordinator during BountyGate) on the sideline. The Rams sole worry should be on winning a game. After going 3-1 they have lost three straight before heading into the bye. The losses wouldn’t be so deflating if they didn’t come against the Lions, Bills, and Giants. Case Keenum singlehandedly lost the game against the Giants throwing four hideous interceptions. Todd Gurley remains the only threat on this entire team and against a rejuvenated Panthers defense that won’t be enough.
Prediction: Panthers 28, Rams 17
Saints (-3) over 49ERS
Don’t look now but the Saints are back from the dead. Many (myself included) wrote this team off after they started 0-3. Now they are 3-4 with a golden opportunity to move to 4-4. The 49ers on the other hand started out hot in Week 1 only to fall flat on their face to the tune of six straight losses. The Saints know that 9-7 or 8-8 can win the NFC South so they will approach this game with just as much desperation as the previous weeks. Drew Brees has been his usual self, tossing touchdowns in bunches this season, but his best game was last week. Against the Seahawks Brees only had one touchdown, but he managed the game effectively limiting the scoring chances for the Seahawks by staying on the field.
This week Brees can return to his cerebral gunslinger self as the 49ers defense is the polar opposite of the Seahawks. Everyone treats the 49ers run defense like an EZ-Pass lane. Their pass defense is not much better and the offense is a wreck. Chip Kelly knew this would be a rebuild, but putting a watchable product on the field should still be a priority. Since Week 1 that has not been the case with Carlos Hyde on the shelf. Hyde looks to be ready to return this week and should help the offense look competent. Still, the Saints should win this game and win it by a lot.
Prediction: Saints 35, 49ers 20
CHARGERS (-5.5) over Titans
Conventional wisdom tells you to take the points. Football instincts tell you to take the Chargers at home against an average team. Verdict? Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Typically when Rivers loses all his weapons in the opening weeks of the season figures to be over. This season, by some divine miracle, other players stepped up. Melvin Gordon looks like the best running back Rivers has had since LaDainian Tomlinson was gliding around. Joey Bosa looks is Shawne Merriman minus the roids (or maybe not). The football gods seem to have a plan for Rivers after all and these young pieces are proof of that.
This week they welcome a solid Titans team. It’s still not known if the Titans are a good bad team or a bad good team, but they are competitive. This will not be a redux of the Jaguars game from Week 2, the Titans have a much more competent quarterback in Marcus Mariota. DeMarco Murray has a banged up toe, but rookie Derrick Henry could carry the load if needed. He looked like Luke Cage in pads at Alabama and while he has not been given a consistent workload we saw last week what he can do when given the ball. The one flaw of this team is the defense cannot stop good offenses from scoring and their offense doesn’t have the firepower to keep up in a shootout. The Chargers will try and make this a shootout and outlast the Titans in what could be a sneaky good afternoon game.
Prediction: Titans 20, Chargers 27
Colts (+7) over PACKERS
On the surface this looks like an easy call. Aaron Rodgers at home is automatic right? Typically that answer is:
This year however it’s simply been “I guess”. Rodgers is still elite don’t get it twisted, but the fact remains that the Packers have yet to cover a decent sized spread at home this season. Facing an identical spread against a similar team (Lions in Week 3) the Packers were not able to cover. Expect this game to follow the same exact pattern. Rodgers will put up points early and the defense may look good. As the game drags on however Mike McCarthy has proven time and time again that he will take his foot off the gas (i.e. 2014 NFC Championship game). That sign of mercy is all the Colts will need to make this interesting.
Andrew Luck has been of the best players this season. You take him off the Colts and they’re duking it out with the Browns for the top pick in the draft. Instead Luck has redeemed himself after a pitiful 2015 with a MVP-caliber campaign with a beautiful stat line of 2,284 yards, 16 touchdowns to only 5 interceptions. The Packers defense is solid against the run, but have shown they can get beat in the secondary. Matt Ryan picked them apart to complete a late comeback and Dak Prescott had success throwing on them as well. Even if Frank Gore gets stuffed Luck should have a strong outing and keep the Colts in it until the very end.
Prediction: Colts 31, Packers 34
Broncos (-1) over RAIDERS
The classic matchup of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. This is the biggest game to happen in Oakland in 15 years. Is that a hot take? Maybe, but take into account this is the first time the Raiders started 6-2 since 2001. With that being said their tilt with the Broncos for first place on Sunday night should be the game of the week. One knock on the Raiders is that a majority of their wins came against bad teams. To that I say you play who’s in front of you. Derek Carr is still throwing touchdowns like he’s playing Blitz. Amari Cooper has taken the first leap of a star receiver as he has started to takeover games like last week when he caught 12 passes for 173 yards and a touchdown. This week the most entertaining offense in the league faces its greatest test--the Broncos defense.
If you were confused as to why the Broncos have looked the same without Peyton Manning it’s because Manning wasn’t the reason they were good last season. Von Miller was the key and remains the key to the Broncos winning games. Through eight games he has 8.5 sacks and has eats up the pocket like a tornado.As long as Miller is on his game the defense can do whatever it pleases and take pressure off Trevor Siemian and the offense. After losing C.J. Anderson to a knee injury the offense turned to the next man in line, Devontae Booker, and got what they needed. The Raiders have yet to prove they can beat a playoff-caliber team and the Broncos are just that.
Prediction: Broncos 27, Raiders 23
Bills (+7) over SEAHAWKS
Timing is everything. If this game happened three weeks ago it would be must-see television. Now, not so much. The Bills are so banged up at the skill position Percy Harvin had to come out of retirement and might even play Monday. Right now LeSean McCoy is not expected to play and Sammy Watkins is on IR. Tyrod Taylor has done all he can, but at some point the lack of weapons catches up to you. Last week they ran into a buzzsaw named Tom Brady so the Seahawks offense will feel like a college offense. Russell Wilson has been okay when he’s had enough time to think. The problem is he rarely gets enough time to drop back let alone scan the field.
As for the Seahawks defense, they are still the cream of the crop. If the offense only manages to put up six points they’ll make sure to only give up three. Bobby Wagner, Kam Chancellor, Cliff Avril, and Richard Sherman are still too good at their job and the other guys fill in appropriately. It’s been like this for a majority of the Pete Carroll era and it has never hindered their success. Monday night is going to be a rock fight and few teams pack as many boulders as the Seahawks do.
Prediction: Bills 13, Seahawks 16
-------
Last Week: 7-6
Overall: 63-60
