Have we reached rock bottom yet?

I sure hope so.

Week 7 of the NFL was so bad it might re-air on Lifetime. There were no good games--unless you want to trick yourself into thinking the Sunday night game was pathetic. The one good game featured the Falcons and Chargers, two teams that still don’t know what defense is, but managed to entertain us with Madden-esque drives. I tried to think of the last time the games were this bad and I remembered feeling this way last year and the year before that. Maybe the NFL is just in that down period the NBA was in the mid-2000s.

When you closely examine the league landscape talent across the board seems to be the issue. Outside of wide receiver there is no position that is deep with talented players. It seems like every offensive line has a hole. Every head coach not named Bill Belichick has a brain fart and most of the quarterbacks are anemic. The running back position has become a forgotten one with little to no elite players at the position anymore (elite backs list includes David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, Zeke Elliott, Todd Gurley, and LeSean McCoy). Coming from a person who has hated Roger Goodell for some time it does make me happy that this downturn has happened on his watch.

So how do gambler’s survive this crapshoot that has become NFL gambling? You do your homework and pray logic is on your side that week. Last week logic was against me or I was against logic, I’m still not sure. What I am sure about is that Week 7 was a nightmare and I’m burying last week’s record in Ben McAdoo’s play sheet where it will never see the light of day again. As Belichick would say, we’re on to Week 8...home teams are in CAPS.

TITANS (-3.5) over Jaguars

Maybe this isn’t the best place to start for a comeback week. The AFC South is by far the worst division in football and either team is exciting to watch. Blake Bortles continues to prove doubters right and is making it increasingly difficult for Gus Bradley the Teflon Don to keep his job. Bortles is 2-14 on the road in his career meaning he is on the fast track to backing up Ben Roethlisberger in 2018. A blowout loss in Tennessee this Thursday might finally pull the plug on the Bortles-Bradley era, but guess what? The Titans don’t have the weapons to blow anyone out.

The best thing going for the Titans is DeMarco Murray who has been their runaway MVP this season. He has helped sophomore Marcus Mariota navigate life with no playmakers outside and has the Titans in a division title hunt. Like most of this year’s Thursday night games this will be messy, unwatchable, and in all likelihood a bad football game. Luckily the NBA will be back so we can watch that instead.

Prediction: Jaguars 16, Titans 20

Jets (EVEN) over BROWNS

Let the streak of underwhelming games continue with the worst team in the league and one of the bigger disappointments of the season. The Browns are 0-7 with only a few opportunities left to snag a win. After this week they have three or four winnable games so they could treat this as their Super Bowl. Already at a talent deficiency they might be without Cody Kessler which means they will trot out their fourth starting quarterback this season (fifth overall if you want to include Terrelle Pryor working double duty), Kevin Hogan. With Hogan under center the pass game suffers, but his mobility can make them a sneaky run team.

The Jets need to win this game more than the Browns. At 2-5 they cannot lose again if they want a shot at the Wild Card. Ryan Fitzpatrick is back after a brief hiatus (Geno Smith tore his ACL in the first half last week) and has already managed to piss Todd Bowles and Jets Nation off with the “nobody believes in me, but me” bullshit. No one believes in you because you held out all offseason and kept throwing it to the other team, you suck Ryan and the sooner you know your place the sooner we can move on. If Fitzpatrick is stinks then the Jets could ask Matt Forte to shoulder the load like he did last week in a huge home win versus the Ravens.

Prediction: Jets 27, Browns 20

BENGALS (-3) over Redskins

I still haven’t decided if this has more to do with the Bengals or the Redskins. Both teams proved me wrong last week for different reasons. The Bengals dominated the Browns at home proving that they can cover against bad teams. It’s amazing what happens when A.J. Green gets the ball a lot, other receivers get open (Tyler Eifert is back!) and running lanes start to open. If Andy Dalton can remember this then Green should set the tempo for another productive game.

The Redskins proved that they are not good, but bad. How bad is unknown at this time, but clearly the Kirk Cousins magic is gone. Last season was cool, but that was last season. This season Cousins has not led anything and no one on the offense has picked up the slack. Where Matt Jones went last week against a BAD Lions defense is anyone’s guess. The Redskins defense is not much better allowing teams to shred them in crucial moments. In the end it looks like Cousins is just as average as Robert Griffin III which is a sad thing for Redskins fans to digest.

Prediction: Redskins 16, Bengals 28

Chiefs (-2.5) over COLTS

This should be the lock of the week with a heavy emphasis on should. The Chiefs are considerably better than the Colts. The one thing going for the Colts is Andrew Luck who is quietly putting together quite the MVP resume. You take Luck off this team and the Colts are duking it out with the Browns for the top pick of the draft. Aside from him Frank Gore and T.Y. Hilton are the only legitimate assets on a team that has no business being 3-4.

The Chiefs on the other hand are good and getting stronger. They are currently tied for first in the best division in the conference and are reaching full health. Jamaal Charles may be done, but Spencer Ware is softening the blow with fantastic performance after fantastic performance. With Charles as the league’s best back up this running back duo can pound opposing defenses into submission and allow the play action to act as the final death blow. On defense they are what they have been since Reid has been there--they rush the passer and try and create turnovers. This should be a stroll in the park for KC, but Luck has a little Philip Rivers in him and won’t allow an easy victory.

Prediction: Chiefs: 34, Colts 30

Raiders (+1) over BUCCANEERS

Same spread different week. Facing an identical spread against an almost identical team the Raiders should pull this one out. Last week they were one point dogs to an atrocious Jaguars team making for a lock of the week. This week is a better team in the Bucs, but not by much. Derek Carr and the offense should still find success in the passing game and maybe hit his top option Amari Cooper in the end zone for once. If not, Michael Crabtree, Seth Roberts and others should find the end zone early and often against a Tampa Bay defense that give up 27 points per game.

Where this game might get close is when the Raiders defense is on the field. Still ranked at the bottom of the league this unit has not proved it is trustworthy just yet. Last week was a start, but Jameis Winston is much better than Blake Bortles. Winston still possess too much gunslinger in him with not enough weapons so the opportunity for turnovers will be there. Mike Evans is a stud, but after that the next viable option is third-string back Jacquizz Rodgers. If logic prevails the Raiders will move to 4-0 playing the early game on the east coast and stay atop the AFC West for now.

Prediction: Raiders 31, Buccaneers 24

Seahawks (-3) over SAINTS

Last Sunday night’s game could have scared any and everyone away from the Seahawks. I am not one of those people. I’m writing that game off as a defensive struggle between two opponents that know each other too damn well. This week the Seahawks offense can take a deep breath and relax knowing they get the Saints defense. Russell Wilson was under pressure all night against a stout Cardinals pass rush, but towards the end of regulation and into overtime the offense got into a rhythm. That rhythm included a lot of Jimmy Graham which should be replicated this week. Revenge game aside Graham is the best weapon Wilson has and he has to start abusing it.

The Seahawks defense was phenomenal against the Cardinals and the Saints might be a little more explosive. Drew Brees is always liable to explode in the Superdome (they’ve eclipsed 30 points in every home game this season) and uses a handful of receivers and running backs to do that. This game should look similar to the Saints loss to the Chiefs where they were down early, came back, but couldn’t crack the Chiefs defense enough before time ran out. The Seahawks have the best defense in the league, but have shown to get sloppy from time to time so this won’t be a laugher, but the end result will not exactly be in question either.

Prediction: Seahawks 38, Saints 27

TEXANS (-2.5) over Lions

Brock Osweiler might be the worst starting quarterback in football. To say that during this era of football is an insult enough, but he also lacks the testicles needed to play football. If you think I’m being too harsh please watch this guy in prime time he makes Andy Dalton look like Tom Brady. For a guy who can launch the ball 50 yards with ease Osweiler has the snatched the check down title from Alex Smith. He’s the sole reason DeAndre Hopkins and the Texans offense as a whole sucks this season.

Ah that feels much better. Now, onto Sunday. The Lions notched another comeback win thanks to the clutch play of Matthew Stafford who has quietly been Andrew Luck in the NFC. Even without Eric Ebron and Theo Riddick Stafford was able to put a game winning drive together and keep the Lions above .500. Given everything that has been said and shown by Osweiler the one thing about this game is that it is not a prime time game. The Lions defense is also very bad and will be on the road. The Texans are undefeated at home so I expect them to figure out a way to win this game despite an inept signal caller.

Prediction: Lions 17, Texans 23

Patriots (-6.5) over BILLS

If there is one thing I hate about sports betting is it makes you fans of teams you don’t want to be. I used to hate Tom Brady and the Patriots. For years he’s tortured Jets fans and for years I’ve enjoyed the few losses he has taken. Since I started gambling I have done a complete 180. I love Tom Brady and love Bill Belichick. They’re my ace in the hole, I know if I put $100 on them every week I’ll take home more money than I lose. This year has been even easier as Tom Wick continues his war path to Roger Goodell. Up next is a revenge game against Rex Ryan and the Bills in Buffalo.

LeSean McCoy being slowed down by a hamstring made this game less fun, but easier to bet on. Brady was already going to go off on the poor Bills who are still recovering from Jay Ajayi running all over them. Without McCoy the offense is Tyrod Taylor improv which could work, but not for long against someone as wise as Belichick. The Patriots have been vulnerable the last two weeks so they are overdue from a spotless performance. Brady will have a huge day and help his team avenge the first shutout loss at home since the 90s with a blowout in Buffalo.

Prediction: Patriots 38, Bills 21

Cardinals (+2.5) over PANTHERS

Look how much difference a couple months make. In January these two were battling for the NFC crown. Now they are battling to stay alive long enough to try and compete for a playoff spot. The Panthers cannot lose this game, they’re 1-5 and even if the NFC South can be won with 9 wins they are already 0-3 in division play. Cam Newton and the offense have been good, but that once scary Panthers defense has gotten it’s teeth removed. They are no longer a threat to the opposing offense especially in the secondary.

The Cardinals are the polar opposite. Their defense looks great especially up front with Chandler Jones and Markus Golden (who may or may not be Meek Mill in disguise) rushing the passer. Where the Cards are struggling is on offense. Carson Palmer’s body has caught up to him and the team has yet to adjust. Last season the vertical passing game was the signature of this offense, but Palmer’s decline is hindering that from happening again. Bruce Arians must adjust and center his attack around David Johnson. There are few things Johnson can’t do on the football field and if the Cards want to win this game DJ has to be the focal point in both the running and passing games. I think Arians adjusts accordingly and sprinkles in some passes against that suspect Panthers secondary for a close win.

Prediction: Cardinals 24, Panthers 21

Chargers (+5) over BRONCOS

One thing you must know about betting with the Chargers involved is that Philip Rivers never goes down easy. He kicks, screams, and throws late touchdowns to cover late. No matter how strong the opposing defense is Rivers finds a way to get points on the board. Despite their underwhelming record the Chargers are not bad, they’re actually pretty decent. Second year running back Melvin Gordon has picked up his game in the absence of Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen. Rivers has utilized Gordon and the supporting cast of receivers to keep the Chargers alive and this week they are going to a place Rivers loves to play in. For whatever reason Rivers plays well in Denver. He’s one of the more hated people among Broncos fans and for good reason. Just two weeks ago Rivers beat the Broncos in San Diego and did it by utilizing every possible weapon, that night the top gun was tight end Hunter Henry (???).

This week the Broncos will welcome those pesky Chargers to Mile High and look for some revenge. Trevor Siemian got back on track Monday night against the Texans, embarrassing Brock Osweiler with a considerably more efficient game. This week he gets another crack at the Chargers. Rookie Joey Bosa has proven he was worth the headache and could give the Broncos offensive line some fits if they fall behind. That is why the Broncos will likely give the Chargers heavy doses of C.J. Anderson and Devontae Booker mixed in with some play action. This will be a grind it out game and few teams are better at that than the Broncos.

Prediction: Chargers 17, Broncos 20

FALCONS (-3) over Packers

Life has been good for the Packers. They have not had to leave Lambeau in a month, picking up four wins in the process. The party is now over and back on the road they go, making a stop at the Georgia Dome. It looked like the Packers offense finally woke up in the second half of their Thursday night tilt against the Bears, tossing up 20 points. How did they do that? By having Aaron Rodgers throw the ball almost every play. It only took three running backs to go down for the Packers to realize their best chance to win is having A-Rod throw every play.

The Falcons know what they have to do to win and that’s get Julio Jones the ball as much as possible in 60 minutes. Jones has snatched the top receiver title Calvin Johnson vacated when he retired and has carried the Falcons offense. If the Packers defense has one hole it would be in the secondary which will be put to the ultimate test this week. With no Tevin Coleman and a stout run defense it's not out of the realm of possibility to see Ryan throw the ball 50 times and look Jones’ way for a majority of those throws. If that is the case it will be a long day for the Packers.

Prediction: Packers 28, Falcons 34

COWBOYS (-4.5) over Eagles

The debate of who is the better rookie quarterback can finally be settled--sort of. Carson Wentz vs. Dak Prescott has been a hot topic due to the hot start of both rookies. Wentz has tapered off considerably in his last two performances, but the Eagles were able to beat a good Vikings team at home. Their reward? Traveling to Jerry’s World to face a red hot Cowboys team. The Eagles might be feeling confident after taking down the final unbeaten squad, but the Cowboys are the type of team the Eagles don’t want to face.

What made the Eagles defense so successful last week was their ability to generate turnovers and score on those opportunities. The Cowboys rarely turn the ball over and rarely give the defense an opportunity. Prescott typically feeds Zeke Elliott and let’s that generational offensive line do what they do best, maul opponents. When Prescott does throw they are usually calculated with minimal risks of interceptions. That type of care for the football has translated to five straight wins and if you think they are changing that formula with Dez Bryant returning you’re mistaken.

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Eagles 17

Vikings (-5.5) over BEARS

What the hell happened in Philadelphia last week? Sam Bradford reverted back to the Sam Bradford we saw in an Eagles uniform and not the level headed signal caller we have seen in Minnesota. Let’s hope that was just a glitch and not a sign that old Bradford is coming back. A trip to Chicago should ease the mind of Vikings fans as the offense can use this game as a form of therapy to get back in the win column. The Bears are a mess right now and Jay Cutler is coming back so you know what that means right? Turnovers, sacks, punts and more acts of ineptitude from the Bears offense!

To make matters worse for the Bears their running back situation has become a game of musical chairs between Ka’Deem Carey, Jordan Howard, and Jeremy Langford. The Vikings defense was going to swallow this offense whole to begin with, but with instability at every position the Bears might get embarrassed on Monday night again. Which brings me to my final question, why the fuck are the Bears on prime time again? Was no one playing attention to them the past couple years? This team is rebuilding and should not be on national television whatsoever. And then the league wonders why the ratings are dipping…

Prediction: Vikings 27, Bears 3

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Last Week: 6-9
Overall: 56-51