The middle weeks of the NFL season are upon us and it’s vital that we discuss the difference between a good game and a bad game. Last Sunday night’s game between the Colts and Texans was dubbed a “good game” by Cris Collinsworth. This could have just been Collinsworth trying to talk himself into commentating on such a bad game, but in case it was a serious comment let’s review what a good game looks like.
There is a difference between a close game and a good game. Two bad teams could be tied in the final minute of a game because they are equally pathetic (i.e. Bucs vs. Panthers in Week 6). A good game features good quarterback play (i.e. Brady vs. Manning) where even the turnovers are more a result of good defense than bad offense. Good games also feature good coaching so no Chuck Pagano, Marvin Lewis, Bill O’Brien, Jim Caldwell, or Ben McAdoo allowed. Above all a good game feels like a sprint not a marathon. The only games that remotely fit this criteria so far has been Falcons vs. Seahawks last week and Patriots vs. Cardinals in Week 1.
This week there are not many contenders. The Steelers and Patriots were supposed to be one of those great games, but Ben Roethlisberger (Hall of Fame QB) is out with injury and Landy Jones (terrible QB) is in. One game that should provide entertainment however is the Seahawks visiting the Cardinals. These two rarely disappoint and Sunday night should be no different. As for the rest of the week’s slate of games? You be the judge. Home teams are in CAPS.
Bears (+9) over PACKERS
I’d really like to understand the justification for this line. The Packers have shown that they cannot be trusted with a spread bigger than a field goal. I’m not in the “what is wrong with Aaron Rodgers” crowd, but something is off about the Packers. They lack killer instinct and big plays, two characteristics that made them the class of the NFC North a majority of the Rodgers-McCarthy era. But since their NFC Championship collapse in Seattle three seasons ago this team has not been the same. Last week Dallas came in and dominated them at home.
Up next is a quick turnaround a Bears team that is looking to lose, but will not go down with a whimper. Since Brian Hoyer has taken the reins from the defeated Jay Cutler the Bears have only been blown out (loss by more than 14 points) just once. Their average margin of defeat the last three weeks has been about 3 points. This is due to a decent defense and manageable offense that doesn’t take many risks with the ball. The Packers play a similar style only they win their close games (average margin of victory this season is 6). Rodgers and company should be victorious Thursday, I’m just not willing to give them that many points right now.
Prediction: Bears 17, Packers 24
Ravens (+1) over JETS
The Ravens have another short road trip to New Jersey facing off against another New York team in shambles. The Giants were in bad shape heading into their tilt with the Ravens and the Jets are pretty much a dumpster fire heading into this week. Jets head coach Todd Bowles has a decision to make at quarterback and that decision has to be Geno Smith. Yes, Smith threw an interception in his only action Monday night, but at least it wasn’t a heave to nobody like Ryan Fitzpatrick has done all too often, especially in the red zone.
It’s not easy for Jets fans to digest, but the season is over. They are currently 1-5 and are one more serious injury away from trotting out a practice squad. If not for the lack of depth on the roster a turnaround would be possible. Depth is something the Ravens should know a lot about given the amount of injuries they sustained last season. This year they’ve been relatively healthy and have had their moments. After starting 3-0 against weak opponents they have now lost three straight. If Smith takes the helm this could get slightly more interesting as the Jets will treat this game as a playoff game, but I think they simply don’t have the manpower at this point to win close games.
Prediction: Ravens 23, Jets 20
Giants (-3) over Rams
The NFL returns to London only this time they are bringing one of the more recognizable players in the league. Odell Beckham is coming off a career performance last week and should be looking for an encore in front of the London crowd. Last week Odell finally looked like Odell and torched the Ravens for six catches, 211 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the second half to secure the 27-23 comeback win.
Odell’s explosion masked a pathetic performance by the defense who let an offense that came in averaging 17 points march up and down the field. Lucky for the Giants they get an even worse quarterback, Case Keenum. All the Giants defense has to do in London is stack the box against Todd Gurley, play decent in the secondary and feed Odell some more on offense. That’s it. Keenum had 300 yards against the Lions, but that is an indictment of terrible the Lions defense is more than it is an awakening for Keenum. This should be an easy Giants win, the keyword being should.
Prediction: Giants 27, Rams 17
CHIEFS (-7) over Saints
Life with Jamaal Charles back in it is great for the Chiefs. The star running back was far from the focal point in last Sunday’s dominating win at the Raiders, but he was a great decoy. Spencer Ware had the best rushing performance of his career and Charles fit in nicely with a touchdown and 30 yards rushing. With the Chiefs offense finally at full strength they can start to ground and pound teams into submission.
What better team to pound into submission than the Saints. Their defense blew a 21 point lead last week and almost cost them the game. I’m not sure their defense could stop Alabama from scoring let alone a NFL team. If the Chiefs are smart they study what the Falcons did with their running back tandem and apply it to their tandem. That recipe of Ware and Charles should be enough to win. The one thing the Saints have going for them is the offense led by old reliable, Drew Brees. If this game was taking place in the Superdome you could talk me into the Brees willing the Saints to cover. On the road in a hostile environment like Arrowhead? Give me the Chiefs.
Prediction: Saints 20, Chiefs 31
TITANS (-2.5) over Colts
Are the Titans officially good? Doubtful, but they certainly are not bad. The Colts on the other hand are bad. How does a team blow a 14 point lead to Brock Osweiler?? As stated before the Colts are Andrew Luck flanked by a bunch of mediocrity. Frank Gore, Adam Vinatieri, and T.Y. Hilton are the only other players worth mentioning after Luck just to give you some context. Following a collapse to a quarterback who couldn’t move a Pop Warner team down the field is Marcus Mariota.
If the Colts got beat by Osweiler then Mariota might resemble Mike Vick to them. Last week Mariota continued his success against low end defense tossing up another three touchdowns to only one interception. Couple the newfound passing game with a stable running game and the Titans have the pieces to win a bad division like the AFC South. So far the Colts have not won a division game and have given us no reason to trust them yet.
Prediction: Colts 23, Titans 27
Vikings (-2.5) over EAGLES
The Wentz Wagon has a lot more space heading into Week 7. After a hot start the Eagles look a lot like the team we thought they’d be. Carson Wentz is still good, but he’s not great yet. To beat the Vikings defense you have to be great and then some. So far the Vikings defense has devoured Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, and Marcus Mariota. All those guys can play and didn’t have a shot. Wentz will get his shot, but coming off a bye week that defense will look to make another statement.
When the Vikings landed Sam Bradford from the Eagles for a first round pick prior to the season the initial reaction was laughter. The consensus was that the Eagles robbed the Vikings. That could not be further from the truth. Both teams effectively won the trade as Bradford is leading an undefeated team and Wentz has gotten the chance to play early. This week will feel like the Vikings won the trade as the defense take a bite into that Eagles offense and hands them their third straight loss.
Prediction: Vikings 24, Eagles 13
Browns (+10) over BENGALS
If ever there was a game to avoid it would be this one. The only thing to see here is A.J. Green and the continued metamorphosis of Terrelle Pryor. Other than that the Browns and Bengals are unwatchable. It was expected the Browns would be this bad, but the Bengals? Not so much. It’s looking like Marvin Lewis will finally meet the axe this season as his coaching flaws have been on full display (i.e. running on fourth and one with Gio Bernard instead of Jeremy Hill).
The Bengals have to win this game. They are currently 2-4 and with Ben Roethlisberger out this week the Steelers will lose. If they have any hope of playing past December they will have to beat teams like the Browns. Unfortunately for them the Browns have fueled all the winning energy surrounding Cleveland to remain competitive despite the talent gap of their roster and everyone else’s. They lost by double digits twice this season--one against the Eagles in Week 1 and the other against the Patriots. The Bengals offense is not dominant enough to trust with a double digit spread and their defense is just as spotty. Watch this game if you hate yourself.
Prediction: Browns 24, Bengals 31
Redskins (+1.5) over LIONS
My goodness, Sunday is looking like the perfect day to spend the early afternoon not watching football. Yet another stinker featuring a team that might be good, but probably isn’t (Redskins) versus a team that is bad, but has its moments on offense (Lions). If someone could explain to me how a NFL defense allowed Case Keenum to throw for 321 yards, 3 TDs, AND break a team record for most completions in a row? How Sway???? Because the Lions defense is trash that’s why.
Kirk Cousins should approach this contest like a second lease on life. If the season ended right now he’d be in the same boat Sam Bradford was in last season. Cousins has a chance to win back some money with a standout showing in Motown, something he hasn’t done yet this season. If Jordan Reed is back the offense should have no problem shredding the Lions and if the star tight end is out? That shouldn’t matter. Matt Jones had a great game last week and should have similar success this week. This could be a sleeper Red Zone game, but don’t be surprised if it's just a mess.
Prediction: Redskins 34, Lions 28
Raiders (-1) over JAGUARS
Last week’s beatdown at home to the Chiefs has not wavered my Raiders bandwagon fandom. The Chiefs are a good team and the Jaguars have proven over time that they are anything, but good. It took them a last second score to beat the Bears and it was as much a struggle as a 17-16 score would indicate. When they see the Raiders on Sunday it will feel like someone turned up the sliders on them. Blake Bortles has yet to prove why he was worth a top pick, but he’s slowly playing into it. The one thing he still struggles with is scoring early in games when the defense has fresh legs. Bortles isn’t the only one heading into Sunday with something to prove.
The Raiders defense needs to show any signs of a pulse. They are dead last in the league giving up a whopping 444 yards per game. That’s embarrassing from the stats alone, not including the offseason hype of this unit carrying the Raiders to the playoffs. Luckily Derek Carr and the offense has picked up the considerable slack left behind. His partnership with Amari Cooper appears to be flourishing and that has opened up touchdown opportunities for the supporting cast. The offense will do its job Sunday. If the defense can be competent than the Raiders could get right back to their winning ways and get Jack Del Rio a win against his former team.
Prediction: Raiders 38, Jaguars 31
DOLPHINS (+3) over Bills
When will the Bills momentum stop? This has been an unprecedented turnaround for a team that was one more loss from losing a head coach. Rex Ryan has rallied his troops for four straight wins and put to rest any chance of being fired during the season. How have the Bills been able to turn things around so drastically? By not being stupid and utilizing their stud, LeSean McCoy. For some reason the public perception of McCoy changed once he was traded for Kiko Alonso. That trade looks a lot more like a prime example of why Chip Kelly is a moron instead of a decline for McCoy.
After David Johnson there is not a running back putting together a better season than McCoy. He is shredding teams up and allowing Rex to do what he loves best--run the ball and smack opposing offenses in the mouth. At some point the joy ride will end briefly and what better team than the Dolphins who just beat the Steelers at home. With a fully healthy offensive line for the first time all season the Dolphins ran for 222 yards (204 from Jay Ajayi). The Bills have been middle of the pack against the run so this will be a nice litmus test to see where they really stand. I see the Bills winning their fifth straight, but it won’t be as easy as last week.
Prediction: Bills 23, Dolphins 21
Buccaneers (-1.5) over 49ERS
The world finally got what they wanted last week, Colin Kaepernick under center again. Kaepernick couldn’t find the ghost of Willie Beamen like he did during the Niners Super Bowl run in 2013 and the 49ers still couldn’t do much of anything. Kaepernick was able to throw a touchdown versus the Bills, but it’s obvious that Chip Kelly needs to find a quarterback for the future. Make no mistake this is the worst team in the NFL and they are starting to really play the part with every week.
The Buccaneers have their quarterback, now they have to find everything else. Jameis Winston is good, but he only has Mike Evans. Right now there is no running game, no number two option in the passing game, and a shaky kicker. Such ineptitude could lead a quarterback to play hero ball which is exactly what Jameis has been doing. That formula has not worked out so well, the Bucs are 2-3. The good news is both their wins came against division foes and Doug Martin should be returning from injury this week. With an existent running game Jameis can now play within himself and use play action again. The 49ers don’t have much to play for and the Bucs are due for an offensive burst.
Prediction: Buccaneers 28, 49ers 14
FALCONS (-6.5) over Chargers
It’s time to believe in the Falcons. Had they not gotten hosed last week in Seattle they would’ve beaten the top defense in each conference at their house. Try and name three other teams not named the Patriots that could do that. Following that travesty of a loss the Falcons return home most likely pissed off. The Chargers are coming off a win versus the Broncos, but don’t fool yourself into thinking that was a sign of change. This team is still not good.
Philip Rivers will light it up as he usually does and Melvin Gordon should have a nice day against a below average defense. The Falcons offense--best in the NFL at the moment--however should massacre the Chargers. With all their top corners on the shelf the Chargers defense will have to say a prayer before attempting to guard Julio Jones. The backfield tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman should get back on track and this team should put up points in bunches this week.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Falcons 41
Patriots (-7.5) over STEELERS
This would have been a serious contender for game of the year had Ben Roethlisberger not suffered his annual injury. The football gods clearly don’t want us to experience the Steelers offense at full strength so he keeps taking away a member of the big three. First it was Le’Veon Bell for three games and now Big Ben for at least this week. Stepping in is perhaps one of the worst backups in the league, Landry Jones. If you haven’t gotten to see Jones play I envy you for being so lucky. If the Steelers are going to have any shot at winning this game it's going to be through rocket screens to Antonio Brown and workhorse day from Bell.
Bill Belichick knows this and will do everything he can to stop that. He will look to neutralize Bell most likely and give Brown anything he wants under five yards. If Jones beats them throwing over the top then so be it. On offense the words of the week stay the same, Tom Brady. The GOAT’s John Wick tear continued last week as he threw for 376 yards with 3 TDs bringing his total through two games at 786 yards, 6 TDs, and 0 INTs. Facing his third straight AFC North defense Brady will continue his run and move on to the next poor saps.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Steelers 13
CARDINALS (-1.5) over Seahawks
These two could not be meeting at a better time. Both struggled in the first quarter of the season as they still figured out who was doing what. The Cardinals offense was a little of a wack as was the Seahawks. Heading into this matchup both teams know who they are and what they are going to do. The Cardinals made it clear that David Johnson is the guy. You can try your best to stop him, but he’ll probably just plow over you on his way to the end zone. Last year the star was Carson Palmer, but Bruce Arians has adjusted and given DJ the keys.
The Seahawks offense also realized who they were. Thomas Rawls is no longer the workhorse, but instead Christine Michael. After bouncing around Michael is back with the team that first saw the potential in him and is making the most of his opportunity. Russell Wilson finally realized he has Jimmy Graham to throw to and in the three games Graham has been featured the Seahawks are 3-0 and averaging 30 points a game. This game should be hard-hitting, possibly high-scoring, and above all good.
Prediction: Seahawks 23, Cardinals 27
BRONCOS (-7.5) over Texans
“We want to kill him”
That is Broncos linebacker Brandon Marshall talking about facing former Broncos backup quarterback Brock Osweiler. That quote alone should steer you away from even thinking about taking the Texans. If you haven’t been following Osweiler--who left Denver after the Texans gave him $72 million--this season then you are missing the highest level of finessing. He has been just as bad if not worse than Brian Hoyer. For anyone that has DeAndre Hopkins in fantasy they know just how bad Osweiler is. There are times where he looks so overmatched that he throws three yards on third and long. Against a hungry Broncos defense that just lost to a bad team you can’t like his chances of survival.
The Broncos will indeed kill Osweiler’s spirit and maybe even actually kill him Monday night. Lamar Miller is the Texans only hope of scoring points and if he gets shut down by the run defense than we could be looking at another shutout in primetime for the Texans. Trevor Siemian has been solid as Osweiler’s backup plan, but can be susceptible to bad play like he was Thursday against the Chargers. He’ll have plenty of chances to have a strong outing as the Broncos defense seems primed to beat the brakes off the Texans offense.
Prediction: Texans 6, Broncos 20
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Last Week: 9-6
Overall: 50-42
