We finally got our wish.
A Sunday filled with good NFL games finally happened, it just took ten weeks to happen. There were upsets, comebacks, choke jobs, poor quarterback play, great quarterback play, big plays, and above all, entertaining games. Week 10 was by far the best week of the season with the top two games delivering in every way possible.
The game of the week happened in Pittsburgh where the Cowboys and Steelers engaged in a real life Madden game. The stars showed out all 60 minutes, but no star shined brighter than Ezekiel Elliott who secured Rookie of the Year (or at least co-ROY with teammate Dak Prescott) and threw his name in the MVP discussion. The night cap featured a rematch of the best Super Bowl in the past five seasons and did not disappoint with the Seahawks getting their revenge in Foxboro.
All this entertainment came at a cost.
The lines last week were already suspect before the games started and looked worse once they were over. Why the Packers are favored in any matchup is anyone’s guess, but I have learned my lesson once and for all. Here are the other lessons I learned from getting lambasted last week.
1. God may no longer hate Cleveland, but he sure as hell hates the Browns.
2. The Eagles make no sense.
3. Mike McCarthy should’ve been fired after the 2014 NFC Championship game collapse.
4. The Minnesota Vikings are the biggest scammers in the NFL.
5. When given the choice between a pile of shit (Jets) and a bucket of shit (Rams), take the bucket.
6. Tony Romo will be a Jet next year leading to the Butt Fumble Redux.
7. Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliott can definitely carry the Cowboys all the way.
8. Cam Newton’s peak happened last year.
9. Tom Brady is human after all.
10. Even when Eli Manning wins anyone betting on him still loses.
With that behind us let me bury last week's picks with the Jets' season and move on to Week 11. Home teams are in CAPS.
PANTHERS (-4) over Saints
Wait a minute do we have a competent Thursday night game? Ravens vs. Browns last week was rock bottom for TNF so the Saints and Panthers don’t have much to live up to. Following a collapse last week the Panthers have to win this game to keep their season alive. Right now the reigning NFC champs are 3-6 and while 8-8 or even 7-9 can win the NFC South another loss to a division foe will put the nail in the coffin. They have lost their first three division games including a failed comeback bid in New Orleans in Week 6.
The Saints also lost last week in devastating fashion, but at 4-5 they are sitting in better position to absorb a loss. Given that the Panthers should come out hot and put up a lot of points early. Cam Newton has to redeem himself after being the catalyst of a Chiefs comeback last week, tossing up a pass to Eric Berry that looked more like a punt than a pass attempt. Home teams are 7-3 this season on Thursday nights and given how desperate the Panthers have to be the Saints defense should be due for a long night.
Prediction: Saints 27, Panthers 34
Steelers (-8) over BROWNS
Last week the Browns reminded us why they have not won a game. Facing their last beatable opponent on a short week the Browns shat the bed. Not only did they lose to a subpar Ravens team, they lost by 21. The Steelers are better than the Ravens and pissed off following a home loss to the Cowboys. Ben Roethlisberger had some choice words for his team after the fourth straight loss saying “we are undisciplined and not accountable.” You can bet that didn’t fall on deaf ears.
The triangle offense of Ben, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown torched the Cowboys so you can multiply that production by at least two this week. The Browns have nothing to slow down Bell and Brown at the same time. The best way to beat the Steelers is to outscore them and the Browns do not have any resemblance of a good offense. Terrelle Pryor remains the best thing about this team, but not even he can carry this team against an offensive juggernaut.
Prediction: Steelers 38, Browns 17
Ravens (+7) over COWBOYS
We are ten weeks into the season and the Ravens have yet to identify themselves. Are they a good bad team or a bad good team? My guess is that they are a good bad team. Their offense is nothing special and their defense is just as middle of the road. Where they excel is not allowing games to get out of hand. If they lose it’s a close game. If they win it’s a close game. Last week’s 28-7 win against the Browns last week was their first game decided by double digit points this season. Whatever happens Sunday just know more likely than not this will be a one score game.
The Cowboys know who they are. They are young, good, and have showed no signs of slowing down. They’ve won eight straight games thanks to not their sensational rookies, but because of their offensive line. Behind that line rookies Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott have flourished into the greatest duo in Dallas since Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith. Toss in Dez Bryant finally filling his Michael Irvin role and the Cowboys have finally recast their 1990s team. Tony Romo silenced any speculation about taking over as starter, telling the media Tuesday that this is now Dak’s team. This is the type of sacrifice championship teams have to make and I cannot wait for Romo to be on the Jets next season.
Prediction: Ravens 17, Cowboys 20
LIONS (-6.5) over Jaguars
Who saw the Lions competing for the NFC North after Week 4? The Vikings were 4-0, the Packers were 3-1, and the Lions were 1-3. Yet somehow the Lions are now 5-4 and in FIRST place in the NFC North. That should put Matthew Stafford right in the thick of the MVP race now and give the Lions added motivation to not blow this. Playing at home where they have won three in a row, Stafford’s offense will face a decent test against a Jaguars defense that is better than a lot of people think. Either Marvin Jones or Golden Tate will be taken out of the game by rookie corner Jalen Ramsey, but the Lions offense is not keyed to one player. They have a ton of secondary options including Theo Riddick and Eric Ebron who have proven themselves worthy of Stafford’s trust.
If the Lions show bye week rust no worries, Blake Bortles is on the other side of the field. Bortles is single handily slowing the Jaguars down. He is quietly approaching major bust status and has yet to dominate a first half this season. The Lions will likely get a head start thanks to Bortles and all the defense has to do is limit the garbage time points to cover this game with relative ease.
Prediction: Jaguars 20, Lions 28
COLTS (-3) over Titans
The last time these two teams met the Titans were up 23-20 in the fourth quarter before Andrew Luck started to do Andrew Luck things. Luck led the Colts down the field for the go ahead score to make it 27-23. The following drive Robert Mathis scored on a fumble to push it to 34-23 and the game was over. For the Titans to return the favor they will have to save their best for the fourth quarter also known as Luck’s home. Marcus Mariota is coming off his best performance of the season, eviscerating the Packers pass offense to the point that I had to reconsider whether Jameis Winston is the better quarterback of the two.
Mariota will be the lesser quarterback in this game, but DeMarco Murray will be the best player on the field. Murray’s comeback season has been well-documented and he has shown zero signs that he is slowing down. The Titans will ride Murray down the stretch and it will come down to a Colts defense, that is coming off a huge performance in Green Bay before their bye, stopping Murray. I think they do enough to give Luck an opportunity to win and with a healthy receiving core this time around Luck should have an easier time scoring.
Prediction: Titans 27, Colts 31
Bills (+3) over BENGALS
Can we be witnessing Marvin Lewis’s final stand? Lewis has been the coach of the Bengals for so long I cannot remember who he replaced. He has kept the Bengals relevant throughout his tenure, but all good things must come to an end eventually. If they miss the playoffs this year there is no guarantee Lewis will be back. For what’s it’s worth Lewis should be given another season despite his countless coaching follies. The Bengals are not very good this year because their offense is undermanned and Mike Nugent can’t make PATs, not because of the defense or coaching. Last Monday the defense held the Giants when they needed, but the offense was unable to breakthrough for one more score against the Giants defense.
This week they face a Bills defense that is on par with the Giants only they actually get to the quarterback. Andy Dalton will be under pressure a lot Sunday which should create opportunities in the turnover department for the Bills defense. The last time we saw the Bills it was Monday night in Seattle where they were one or two plays away from winning. With an extra week to prepare and get LeSean McCoy healthy the Bills will be a tough out again. The Bengals still hold the advantage thanks to the lack of weapons at receiver leaving it up to McCoy to navigate a good rush defense. It will be a grinder, but A.J. Green should supply enough offense to get a much-needed win.
Prediction: Bills 23, Bengals 24
CHIEFS (-7.5) over Buccaneers
The Chiefs just keep on winning. They are now 17-2 in their last 19 regular season games and a perfect 10-0 in their last ten games at Arrowhead. Last week they pulled a win out of their ass thanks to Cam Newton imploding and their reward is a home game against the Buccaneers. The Jameis-led Bucs have been feisty this season and can be a pain in the ass the longer they hang around. Mike Evans has quietly made the leap into the top ten receivers list, pulling in everything thrown his way. Matched up against Marcus Peters this week Evans will need some support from guys like Cameron Brate and Doug Martin to take attention off.
It will be tough sledding for the Bucs not just because the Chiefs seem invincible at home. It’s because they are invincible at home and should be getting Justin Houston back. Houston is the team’s best pass rusher, his return will be the shot in the arm the front seven needs to match the stellar play of the secondary. If Houston is let loose Jameis could be under pressure a lot which means turnovers. Turnovers mean the offense will be on the field more against a suspect Bucs front seven. Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West were relatively quiet against the Panthers last week, but that should not be the case this week. The Bears were able to move the ball without a healthy line so you can imagine what a healthy Chiefs line will do.
Prediction: Buccaneers 13, Chiefs 27
GIANTS (-7) over Bears
This has everything to do with the Bears. No team lost more in the past five days than the Bears. They lost two offensive lineman bringing their total to three injured starters. Jordan Howard may or may not have an Achilles injury. And to cap it all off their top playmaker Alshon Jeffery is suspended the next four games for PEDs. It’s as if the tank gods are doing everything in their power to get the Bears to get a high draft pick. Maybe Jabrill Peppers or Deshaun Watson are in their future. In order to get one of those blue chippers they will have to continue to lose which should be a walk in the park.
The Giants are 6-3 by accident, but that doesn’t mean they are bad. They have the pieces–a solid defense, transcendent playmaker and veteran quarterback. The only piece missing is a reliable running game although Rashad Jennings showed glimmers of hope last Monday. All Eli Manning has to do Sunday is throw the ball to Odell Beckham Jr. or Sterling Shepard. That’s it. The defense can handle the rest. To anyone that has not seen the Giants that game plan seems cleancut and easy. But to Giants fans or anyone else that has watched this team a lot knows, Eli enjoys making stupid decisions in the regular season. If he can refrain from throwing to check downs this should be the easiest win of the season for Big Blue.
Prediction: Bears 13, Giants 28
Cardinals (EVEN) over VIKINGS
Try and name two bigger disappoints than the Cardinals and Vikings. Where did it all go wrong? They were 5-0 and on top of the football world. Mike Zimmer was the runaway coach of the year, the defense looked like the Purple People Eaters 2.0, and the Sam Bradford trade looked like a steal. Fast forward four weeks after their Week 6 bye and the sky has fallen. They have lost four in a row and each loss is more perplexing than the other. When the offense performs decent like they did last week the defense shits the bed. When the defense is good the offense shits the bed. When both units look good, Blair Walsh misses PATs and field goals.
The Cardinals have issues of their own, but there is only one source–Carson Palmer. Last season was Palmer’s last hurrah as he has fallen off a cliff this season and the Cardinals offense has paid the price. Last week the 49ers, the worst team in the league, stayed with them the whole game because their defense focused on David Johnson and dared Palmer to win the game. They were able to escape last week, but if the Vikings defense utilizes same game plan then we are in store for an extremely tight game. The reason the Cardinals get the nod is because the Vikings offensive line is so bad I’m not sure Bradford will have two seconds in the pocket. Chandler Jones and Markus Golden should have a field day and propel their team to a win.
Prediction: Cardinals 23, Vikings 20
Dolphins (-1.5) over RAMS
Well would you look at this, Jared Goff is finally starting. It took ten weeks and nine games, but Jeff Fisher pulled the trigger. He will start the top pick of the 2016 draft at home against the Dolphins in a pretty big spot. Yes, the Rams have no chance in hell of making the playoffs, but mathematically they are very alive. Goff has not played a down because he has yet to take an official snap under center dating back to high school and had trouble reading the playbook. Just to recap, the Rams traded a treasure chest to Titans for the top pick and used that pick not on Joey Bosa, Carson Wentz, Jalen Ramsey, or literally anyone else, but on the guy who can’t read a playbook yet. Jeff Fisher must be the coolest fucking guy because there is no other explanation for him having a secure job.
So what can we expect from Goff? He’s facing a Dolphins team that has yet to lose with their offensive line healthy. They are currently on a four game winning streak and running back Jay Ajayi is at the center of it all. Head coach Adam Gase was known as a smart offensive mind, but pivoting from the typically underwhelming Ryan Tannehill (who played great last week) throwing the ball 50 times to running down other team’s throats with Ajayi changed their season. A win here keeps them in the thick of the Wild Card race that is starting to take shape with seven weeks left.
Prediction: Dolphins 27, Rams 16
Patriots (-13) over 49ERS
It does not happen often, but occasionally Bill Belichick makes himself look stupid. Last week was one of those rare occasions. Why he only rushed two defensive lineman a majority of the game is the next man’s guess. The Seahawks offensive line is the team’s only weakness yet the Patriots let them get away with it and paid for the mistake. Russell Wilson lit them up and the Pats still had a chance to win at the end, but couldn’t punch it in from the one-yard line which should remind all of us karma is indeed real. This week the Patriots will be without Rob Gronkowski with what is being reported as a chest injury. Despite not having Gronk they have Tom Brady and that’s all they need.
Brady was held out of the end zone last week thus putting a brief halt on his Tom Wick tear. No worries that tear will be back on course this week against a bad 49ers defense that has no one to key in on. Brady will spread the wealth without Gronk leading to mismatches all over the field and Chip Kelly nauseous on the opposing sideline. The 49ers probably could care less about this game as another loss means a higher pick at this point which is the main concern. This should get ugly quickly.
Prediction: Patriots 38, 49ers 23
SEAHAWKS (-6.5) over Eagles
Are the Seahawks back? Yes because they never left. If you have paid any attention to this team the past four years you know they start slow, but finish with strong. Getting used to life without Marshawn Lynch has been tougher than expected, but Russell Wilson has figured it out. Wilson has began to feed the beast, Jimmy Graham, and Doug Baldwin while the run game figures itself out. Christine Michael appeared to be the answer, but was benched last week for rookie C.J. Prosise and waived this week. With Prosise in the backfield it’s obvious the Seahawks are pivoting to a pass-happy attack.
For the defense it is business as usual. They are still elite and still prey on the weaker quarterbacks. Carson Wentz will eventually be a tough test for the Seahawks–just not this year. The rookie has come crashing down to earth not reaching the end zone the past two weeks against less talented defenses. That trend will continue and the rushing attack will not be able to bail him out like they did last week at home against the Falcons. The Seahawks should devour the rookie whole and keep momentum on their side.
Prediction: Eagles 13, Seahawks 24
REDSKINS (-2.5) over Packers
Congratulations to the Green Bay Packers on being pathetic. Who deserves the bigger blame Mike McCarthy or Ted Thompson? On the surface it’s McCarthy, but the deeper you dig the more Thompson looks like the culprit. How is a team so undermanned that a receiver has to be the starting running back? The Packers have the same depth issues as the Jets only the media coverage in Green Bay isn’t as lethal. Aaron Rodgers has not done much to mask these weaknesses, instead highlighting them. The defense has been even worse, getting shellacked last week by a Titans offense that typically packs the punch of a Kindergartener.
On the other side we have Redskins team that is somehow performing better than their parts. They are 5-3 while their starting quarterback Kirk Cousins has been average and the supporting cast has suffered key injuries to DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed, and Matt Jones. Is Jay Gruden actually a good coach? I’m still not sure, but his team knows how to grind out wins. They were able to beat the Vikings at home and now get a similar AFC North team in decline Sunday night. Cousins had to be grinning watching the Packers game tape against the Titans as both teams have similar passing options only Cousins’ guys have breakaway speed. The rushing attack should be held at bay, but the passing game should have opportunities to make enough big plays to move to 6-3-1.
Prediction: Packers 27, Redskins 30
Raiders (-5.5) over Texans
Week 11 wraps up south of the border. The NFL heads to Mexico City for the first Monday Night Football game outside the United States as well as first regular season game to be played in Mexico. Too bad the sold out crowd will have to watch Brock Osweiler. In three primetime games Osweiler has looked like Bow Wow in Like Mike when his magic sneakers tore–overwhelmed and pathetic. Osweiler threw the ball 27 times last week and failed to reach 100 yards. There’s quarterbacks in Pop Warner who can toss up a better stat line than that garbage. DeAndre Hopkins should be praised for not sticking his cleat up Osweiler’s ass yet, I have never seen a season get wasted quite like Hopkins’ has and it is all thanks to the $72 million man.
Luckily David Carr will be there to save the day in Mexico City. Carr is the polar opposite of Osweiler. He’s confident, talented, and a leader. His unit is the best in the NFL and can go score for score with anybody. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are the best receiving duo in the league at the moment and the defense looks like they are waking up from their nine week slumber. Their home win over the Broncos had to be a confidence boost for this unit, especially the offensive line which mauled the best defense in the AFC in Week 9. The Texans are not particularly good on a regular day, but under the bright lights they cower into the fetal position. Expect the Raiders to play up to the moment while the Texans continue to embarrass themselves in prime time.
Prediction: Texans 17, Raiders 27
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Last Week: 3-11
Overall: 75-72
