Betting on anything will bring out one’s true colors. The same for sports. The deeper you get into gambling the quicker you realize how fickle fandom truly is. I have been a New York Jets fan for as long as I can remember and have hated Tom Brady since he debuted in 2001--thanks to the Jets. In recent years my hate for Brady has lessened to the point that he is now one of my favorite players. I used to hate Bill Belichick with a burning passion, but that too has subsided. What has caused this sudden change? The Patriots know how to take care of my money.

If you were to put $10 on each Patriots game during the Brady-Belichick era in which Brady played you would be boasting a profit of $1,380 (198-60 record as a starter). Against the spread Brady has been just as good. He’s currently 4-0 this season with no signs of slowing down. In an era where quarterback play has been as predictable as a slot machine Brady is money in the bank more often than not. This weekend his loss was felt as other big name quarterbacks laid eggs--Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton--proving the only quarterback worth gambling on every week is Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr.

Brady continues his John Wick tear through the league this week with his toughest test of the season, the Seahawks. With an extra week to prep you can assure yourself that Belichick and Brady will be ready for anything that Seahawks defense throws at them. Seahawks-Pats figures to be the game of the week, but there are still 13 other games on tap including another great AFC vs. NFC showdown featuring the red hot Cowboys and Steelers. Let’s see what Week 10 has in store for us, as always home teams are in CAPS.

Browns (+10) over RAVENS

You almost never trust a team with a double-digit spread unless a high-powered offense is involved. That is far from the case in this AFC North tilt. Throw in the fact that this is a Thursday night game, a division matchup, and the point differential when these two played hasn’t exceeded 7 points and I didn’t think twice about taking the points. The Browns are still searching for win number one and have their best shot of getting it this week. They had the Ravens on the ropes when they met in Week 2. Josh McCown is back at quarterback for the Browns and he loves facing the Ravens. He’s thrown for 929 yards, 5 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions in his last three games against them including a 457-yard explosion in Baltimore.

The Ravens will be coming off a big home win against the rival Steelers so the trap game element can play a role. Joe Flacco has been incredibly mediocre this season throwing 6 touchdown to 7 interceptions and not getting the Ravens offense past 27 points. That may be more of a reflection of the weapons around him--Terrance West, Mike Wallace, Dennis Pitta and washed up Steve Smith aren’t exactly the names you’d associate with the term “high-powered offense--but the fact remains that this offense does not score much. Chances are this will be yet another unwatchable Thursday night game. But hey, at least the NBA is back.

Prediction: Browns 24, Ravens 27

Packers (-2.5) over TITANS

At some point Aaron Rodgers has to take over right? The Packers have been one of the most underwhelming teams in the league this season. Mike McCarthy has not been the same coach since choking away the NFC title two years ago and I think it’s time for a coaching change. There is no excuse the Packers not only lost at home to the Colts, but trailed wire to wire. The Colts do not have a defense and their sole offense is Andrew Luck. We have passed the point of panic with the Packers, if they do not win this Sunday then McCarthy has to go.

As for the Titans, they’re just happy to still be alive. They can officially be tagged a good bad team after blowing countless chances to win last week in San Diego. Marcus Mariota has taken a step back for every step forward. Last week he turned the ball over in crucial moments, fumbling the ball away with a chance to take the lead and then throwing a pick six later on to seal the game for the Chargers. This matchup doesn’t favor the Titans at all because the one weapon the Titans possess is DeMarco Murray, but the Packers are the number one run defense. If there was ever a time for the Packers to have a big win it's this week.

Prediction: Packers 28, Titans 13

Vikings (+2.5) over REDSKINS

Something’s got to give for the Vikings. Since heading into their Week 6 bye a perfect 5-0 the Vikings have lost three straight games to non-playoff teams. That’s a cause for concern on its own. Blair Walsh not being able to convert PATs and the offensive line not being able to get a decent push should have Vikings fans extremely worried. Their defense is still great, but if they’re on the field all game eventually fatigue sets in and plays like this happen:

The good news for the Vikings is that their run game will have a chance to get going this week in Washington. The Redskins are ranked 26th against the run and have been gashed all season, if the Vikings running backs can’t find room against them then they will never have a solid running game. Kirk Cousins and the Redskins offense will probably need 16 to 23 points to win given the ineptitude of the Vikings offense. He is coming off his best game of the season (458 yards and 2 TDs vs. the Bengals in London) but the Redskins were only able to tie. Chances are he won’t replicate that performance against the best defensive unit in the conference that is overdue for a dominant day.

Prediction: Vikings 20, Redskins 17

BUCCANEERS (+1.5) over Bears

Overreaction much Vegas? I know the Bears headed into their bye week with a huge win over the Vikings, but favored on the road? The Buccaneers have been a disappoint this season, but they are good enough to beat this Bears team. Jameis Winston had a good game last week against the Falcons tossing three touchdowns and most importantly not turning the ball over. Two of those touchdowns went to Mike Evans who Winston should look to every play this week and beyond. Evans has been a monster since he was drafted and if not for Odell Beckham taking the league by storm we’d be talking about him as the crowned jewel from the 2014 draft.

The Bears don’t have anyone to remotely slow Evans down and the wide out should have no issues dominating once again. This game has potential to be a shootout or a turnover marathon between Jay Cutler and Winston. In his first game back from injury Cutler looked like a guy who wanted to play, a far cry from what we saw in Week 2 against the Eagles. Assuming last game wasn’t a one time thing the Alshon Jeffery can become a factor again and maybe Jordan Howard gets loose. In the end I think Winston to Evans is more potent than anything the Bears can cook up.

Prediction: Bears 27, Buccaneers 28

PANTHERS (-3) over Chiefs

The Chiefs have skated by a lot of games this year. Going back to last year they are 16-2 in their last 18 regular season games. They are 6-2 this year without Jamaal Charles and Justin Houston and won last week without Alex Smith and Spencer Ware. Law of averages states the Chiefs are due for a loss and what better time to loss than in a non-conference road game? Alex Smith is due back after missing one game with a lacerated ear and Spencer Ware could also be back after sitting with a concussion. Whether both starters return or not it may not make a difference, the Panthers are on a warpath.

Following a 1-5 start the defending NFC champs have put together a two game win streak including a dominant performance at home versus the Cardinals. The run defense looks like its old self, holding David Johnson and Todd Gurley to 72 yards combined. If there is one thing the Chiefs rely on it’s a run game to set up play action. No running game means more passing which is not the Chiefs style despite the Panthers’ Achilles heel being against the pass. On offense the Panthers have yet to put together a showing that deems them back in the form they were last year. Cam Newton has been (rightfully) pissed off about getting no calls on hard hits, per Adam Schefter Newton has not drawn a roughing-the-passer penalty since 2014. Despite the clear prejudice he should put together a nice showing against a middle of the pack defense and get a much needed third straight win.

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Panthers 27

Falcons (EVEN) over EAGLES

Have the Falcons proven they are worth our trust? Let’s run down what they’ve done this year--beaten three playoff caliber teams (Raiders, Broncos, Packers) and should’ve beaten a fourth (Seahawks). They have also lost to teams that have little to no shot of making the playoffs (Chargers and Buccaneers). My verdict? They’re worthy of our trust. Matt Ryan has rediscovered his talent and that has led to the Falcons offense being the best in the NFC. Even when Julio Jones is blanketed Ryan has been able to find Mo Sanu, Tevin Coleman and a host of others to get the job done. They see the Saints and Panthers are hot on their ass so there will be no need of added motivation.

Motivation is something the Eagles have to be looking for. Since their 3-0 start they have gone 1-4 and the Carson Wentz Wagon has all but emptied. What changed in Philly? Other teams getting a chance to watch film on their rookie. Wentz was the Billy Hoyle of this year’s rookie class with teams not knowing what to expect from the North Dakota State product. Now that they have had time to watch enough of Wentz on film opposing defenses are clamping down on those short routes and forcing the rookie to throw over the top more often. Wentz is still good and will be good moving forward, but he’s not going to be able to keep up with the Falcons offense that is still operating at its peak.

Prediction: Falcons 28, Eagles 23

JETS (-1.5) over Rams

If you have Red Zone chances are you will not see this game much. If you do not have Red Zone and this is your local game may the football gods have mercy on your eyes. The Rams offense is one of the worst units in the league. Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league this season. Todd Gurley is the Rams best player. The Jets defensive line is the best in football. Todd Bowles is an okay coach. Jeff Fisher is terrible. You see where I’m going with this? This game will no doubt be one of the three worst games of the early slate and you can bet the house on that.

The Jets should be thinking about tanking, but given the wealth of veteran talent on the roster it just doesn’t make sense to quit until you’re mathematically out of it. They should have won last week against the Dolphins, but errors (Fitzpatrick interceptions) and big plays doomed them. Allowing a game-winning kick return immediately after taking the lead is a page right out of the Same Old Jets handbook. Still, at 3-6 the Jets have a glimmer of hope at making the playoffs assuming they win out. That will unlikely happen since they still have to face the Patriots twice, but that should be enough to fire this team up to beat a bad Rams team.

Prediction: Rams 20, Jets 23

SAINTS (-1) over Broncos

Last Sunday night the Broncos got put in their place. The Raiders dominated them more than the 30-20 score indicated. Missing key pieces, most notably Aqib Talib, the Broncos defense was no match for the best offense in the AFC. This week they face another high-powered offense on the road in the Saints and may be without Talib again as well as Derek Wolfe. That leaves the Broncos defense at a disadvantage yet again. Smelling blood expect Sean Payton and Drew Brees to capitalize on this and stretch the Broncos out. Last week they tore the 49ers apart using an array of weapons including rookie receiver Michael Thomas and Mark Ingram.

The two places the Broncos were exposed last week was in the run game and in guarding the seams. Ingram and Tim Hightower figure to play crucial roles in this one, but if they are stopped expect Brees to attack the middle of the field like Derek Carr did. Coby Fleener and whoever is lined up in the slot should have a field day against backup nickels and linebackers in coverage. The Broncos best chance at winning is controlling the clock which would require a good run game, something they have not done effective since C.J. Anderson went down. Devontae Booker is a solid back, but even Terrell Davis would have a hard time running behind an offensive line that has not been able to open any holes. Trusting Trevor Siemian to carry the offense is just is not exactly a great second option as he operates best on play action and bootlegs. The Broncos will fight in this one, but they probably can’t wait to get to their bye week and recuperate.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Saints 27

Texans (-1.5) over JAGUARS

Has the bye week given Brock Osweiler the break he needs to become the man the Texans paid $72 million for? Probably not. The biggest problem Osweiler has is confidence and I’m not sure how that is restored. It’s amazing that a dude that can throw the ball sixty yards with the flick of a wrist is terrified to throw past the first down marker. Our only hope is that the Texans used this bye week to help Osweiler clear his mind before preparing for the home stretch. If he looks impressive this week all is good in Houston. But if he still looks lost than there is a big problem. DeAndre Hopkins is quickly becoming the new Larry Fitzgerald and at this rate will have to wait another five years before a post-prime QB comes in and saves him.

The Jaguars are one of the few teams that probably wouldn’t mind having Osweiler. That’s how bad Blake Bortles is. One play that made my eyes burn was Bortles dropping back with ample time, scanning the field, and throwing it to a wide open Chiefs linebacker. There was not a Jaguar on my 55-inch television screen. Plays like those is what keeps your team at the bottom and it’s sad because the Jaguars have a decent team aside from Bortles. Their defense is top ten caliber and their skill position players are solid. At some point the team is going to have to pull the plug on Bortles and another bad performance in a winnable game might do it. Please don’t watch this game if you have dreams of playing quarterback because this one will be ugly.

Prediction: Texans 23, Jaguars 17

CHARGERS (-4) over Dolphins

It’s been an up and down year for the Chargers. Week to week you never really know what to expect from them, but there is one thing they have done consistently--play well at home. They’re currently averaging 34 points at home and have only lost once, a choke job against the Saints. Other than that this team has loved some home cooking. Philip Rivers has had a nice supporting cast this season led by Melvin Gordon who has not only shed a potential bust label, but has ascended near the elite group of backs. He’s been the catalyst of the offense and is the reason Rivers has had more open lanes to throw the football.

Another one of those top tier backs is Jay Ajayi. The second year back has also put his team on his back running for 529 yards and 4 touchdowns during the Dolphins three game win streak. All the Dolphins seemed to need was a healthy line to pound the football and since they’ve gotten healthy up front that is all they have done, limiting Ryan Tannehill from throwing the game away. The problem is the Chargers have the fifth best run defense in the league and the defense as a whole has been impressive since Joey Bosa debuted. With the run game most likely to be slowed down that means it will come down to Tannehill vs. Rivers. I don’t think we need to debate who would win that contest.

Prediction: Dolphins 24, Chargers 34

Cowboys (+2.5) over STEELERS

This might be the game of the week. It has stiff competition with the Patriots and Seahawks, but the Cowboys and Steelers can easily steal the show. What more needs to be said about the Cowboys? Their rookie duo of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott should split the Rookie of the Year award this season, they’ve been that good. Elliott was expected to be good, but he has been the top back in football and replaced Dez Bryant as the heart of the Cowboys offense. Prescott was not expected to do much other than hold a clipboard, but instead has done his best 2012 Russell Wilson impression. He continues to thrive in the moment and all eyes will again be on him in this top flight match up.

On the other side is a future Hall of Famer quarterback who knows a thing or two about succeeding early in his career. Ben Roethlisberger was bad last week despite his Blake Bortles stat line (I’m copyrighting this. A Bortles stat line is when a QB puts up amazing garbage time stats to mask a shitty performance). This week the Steelers offense faces a Cowboys defense that is one of the best in the NFL, surrendering only 17.5 points per game good for fourth in the league. Big Ben can expect a lot of blitzes from Cowboys defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli which should mean a lot more Le’Veon Bell who was held in check last week. There haven’t been many must see games this season, but this is definitely going to be one of them.

Prediction: Cowboys 28, Steelers 27

CARDINALS (-13.5) over 49ers

There will come a time where you’re deciding who to pick and logic will meet intuition. Logic says a two touchdown spread is too many points to give any team. Intuition says the 49ers have lost seven in a row and most of them have been ugly blowouts. I’m throwing logic out the window on this one and gambling on a bad 49ers team getting wiped out by a well rested Cardinals team. When these two met in Week 5 David Johnson tore up the 49ers defense and threw the remaining pieces in Chip Kelly’s face. If Bruce Arians is smart he follows the same gameplan and prays his passing offense can be more effective after the bye.

Truth be told the 49ers have nothing to play for. Kelly knew what he was getting into when he accepted the job and bottoming out was step one. With their two viable weapons--Navarro Bowman and Carlos Hyde--both shelved or banged up there are zero reasons to believe this team could cover any spread. The Cardinals need to win this game because up next they face a significantly tougher opponent in the Vikings. They will treat this game like a warm up and run through the 49ers again. And if they don’t? Then the Cardinals have bigger problems than you and I.

Prediction: 49ers 13, Cardinals 38

PATRIOTS (-7.5) over Seahawks

If the Steelers and Cowboys game is a stinker don’t worry this should be a great one. Not much has changed since these two met up in Super Bowl XLIX. Marshawn Lynch is now retired, but other than that the Seahawks are the same team they were two seasons ago as are the Patriots. Styles make fights and this figures to be quite a showdown between Tom Brady and the Legion of Boom. Tom Wick has been cleaning house since he has returned from his bullshit suspension, but none of those opponents possessed the talent the Seahawks have in the secondary. The matchup I’m most excited to see is Earl Thomas vs. Brady. Both are the best at their position and you can bet Thomas will be shadowing Rob Gronkowski or at least helping out.

On the other side of the ball Russell Wilson will have to take it up a notch. He looked good Monday night against the Bills defense which isn’t that far from the Patriots defense. Wilson operates best in chaos so don’t be surprised to see the Patriots fall back and let him beat them from the pocket first. Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare for this and is 19-3 following a bye since 2003. Whatever the Patriots decided to do stopping Wilson will be its top priority, leaving this game in the hands of the Seattle rushing attack. If Belichick is able to do that then the Patriots should move to 8-1 and continue their tear.

Prediction: Seahawks 16, Patriots 24

GIANTS (-2.5) over Bengals

I can already see Eli Manning screwing me over. The Giants love to make me look stupid much like they did last week. I thought they’d roll over against the Eagles, but they handled them with relative ease. They still cannot run the football well, but Manning seems to have finally realized he has Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard to throw to. Last week was Manning’s best game of the season by far, but it wouldn’t be an Eli game if he didn’t throw a late interception near enemy territory. The Giants defense was able to stop the Eagles following the turnover, but it serves as yet another reminder as to why you can never trust Eli.

The main reason I’m rocking with Eli is the same reason I voted for Hillary Clinton--choosing the less of two evils. Andy Dalton is one of the worst primetime quarterbacks I can think of and until he performs well in a primetime game against a decent defense (anyone can look good against the Browns) he’s not to be trusted. A.J. Green is the only person I trust on the Bengals and if he could throw the ball to himself I would have a little more faith. If the Giants are wise they double Green all night and take their chances with Tyler Eifert and the band of vagabonds. This game will feature a lot of bad coaching, turnovers, and highlight reel catches that will hopefully result in a good game.

Prediction: Bengals 21, Giants 27

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Last Week: 9-4
Overall: 72-61