Enjoy the new-look warriors while you can.
All good things have to come to an end. For the Golden State Warriors, things might be coming a little sooner than they would have liked. Players outplay their contracts, salary caps rise, and players get overpaid just because teams have the money to give which in turn inflates the overall market value of players. All of this is bad news for the Warriors.
By a stroke of luck or pure genius, I haven’t decided, the Warriors re-signed the oft-injured Steph Curry to a four-year, 44 million dollar deal just before his assault on the league began. Unfortunately, the chickens have come home to roost and now they must pay one of the best players in the league what he is owed. Memphis Grizzlies point guard Mike Connely has never made an all-star game, yet he was just paid 153 million dollars over five years, for an average salary of 30.5 million per season. It’s safe to assume Curry will also be looking for a max contract in this range. Luckily for the Warriors, they locked down Klay Thompson (17 million/year) and Draymond Green (about 17 million/year) before the salary cap exploded, otherwise, the Warriors would really be in a pickle. Do you know who else is getting 17 million a year now? Evan Turner. Yes, that Evan Turner, who shoots 43% from the floor and 30% from deep, and never really plays starter minutes. Timofey Mozgov, who didn’t even play for the championship Cavaliers, was signed to a 16 million dollar a year contract. Safe to say that Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are worth much more than that, but the point is moot because of the timing of their contract signing. Kudos to the Warriors for having that foresight.
But it still might not be enough to keep the house of cards from crashing down.
The salary cap for the upcoming season is $94.14 million, with a luxury tax limit of $113.29 million (which means if they reach the luxury tax or go over, they begin to get fined heavily each year they remain in the luxury tax). For example, the Brooklyn Nets had a payroll for the 2013-14 season that was nearly 100 million, while the luxury tax was set at $71 million. Their luxury tax bill? Over 80 million. So they paid over $186 million for the roster that year- not chump change by any means.
Looking at the Warriors now, they only players that are on the books for next season are Kevin Durant (which is a player-option meaning he could leave if he wants to) for $28 million, Klay and Draymond for $17 million each, and five bench players, only one of whom cracks the current rotation, all on the books for about a million a piece totaling $5.6 million. All told, that’s $67.6 million dollars on the books for three starters and one bench player that actually gets involved in the rotation (Kevon Looney). Include Steph’s upcoming contract of $30 million and you’re already over the salary cap and rapidly approaching the luxury tax bill and all you have is four starters and a deep bench player. NBA rosters typically have twelve players dressed for a game, though some coaches choose to only go about nine or ten deep on their rotations. Assuming this, the Warriors need another five players at least to fill the rotation. Shaun Livingston only made $5 million this past season, and a point guard who can take over the starting job when needed, command the floor, set up teammates, and be a staple on defense is sure to command at least $15 million (considering Mozgov was benched down the stretch last season and still is making $16 million). Should the Warriors choose to resign him, they’re pushing 112.6 million, just one million dollars under the luxury tax, and they haven’t even tried signing Andre Iguodala back (who should command at least $10 million on the market), or any of the veterans who make one or two million (David West, Zaza Pachulia, Anderson Varejao, JaVale McGee). Money is getting tight, and it's becoming a major problem.
Sure, Livingston and Igoudala could take big pay-cuts to stay loyal to the Warriors, but even at $5 million a piece they would only have Steph, Durant, Thompson, Green, Livingston, Igoudala, and Looney on the books (along with Jason Thompson, James McAdoo, Patrick McCaw, and Damian Jones) they’re still looking at $107.6 million dollars and rapidly approaching the dreaded luxury tax line with only about seven dependable rotation players. Filling the gaps with low-cost veteran contracts like David West would definitely be the route to go, but contingencies have to be in place in case Steph’s ankles give him problems again, Durant’s foot issues rear their ugly head or Iguodala's age finally catches up to him. The pressure on the organization to work some salary cap magic (akin to the Godfather Pat Riley) is palpable.
But saving money is not quite as important as winning championships, and when the pressure of winning and staying under the cap meet, the real conundrum comes to light. The Warriors, whom everyone crowned the Western Conference Champions before the season started, are sitting at 4-2 with losses to the Lakers (yes, the ones who went 21-61 last year) and the Spurs in convincing fashion. The Spurs and Lakers don’t have the star-power to match the Warriors, yet were able to win these games. The reason is because the Warriors bench is not as deep as it has been, and cannot carry the load when the starters are out. Last year, players like Leandro Barbosa, Harrison Barnes (at times), Festus Ezeli, Shaun Livingston, Brandon Rush, and Mo Speights bolstered one of the league’s deepest and formidable benches. At the very least, they could defend the lead while the starters rested.
So now we have come full circle. The Warriors need to save money to keep them under the luxury-tax threshold but also need to be sure they show loyalty to their players like Steph, Iggy, and Livingston (should they choose to resign the latter two). However, the importance of finding affordable bench depth for a deep playoff run is paramount, but becoming increasingly difficult in a time when players are getting grossly overpaid due to the rising salary cap(see Solomon Hill, four years $50 million).
The pressure is on, things are about to boil over, and something is going to have to give. The Warriors will have to take a long, hard look at the roster and their budget at the end of the season.
Enjoy the new-look Warriors while you can- they may not be around for much longer.