It's still very early, but with college football season and the NFL regular season now both in the books, it's about time to start thinking about the upcoming NFL draft as draft hopefuls prepare for this year's version of the NFL Combine.
As I stated in my first version, these picks are certainly going to change in the coming months as anything can happen to alter a prospect's draft stock from now until the draft, and now I will attempt to my first revision of the picks as early offseason cuts are starting to unwind. Heck, just ask Laremy Tunsil, who, after being considered the #1 overall pick at one point, lasted until the early middle of the first round after a video of him smoking out of a bong while wearing a gas mask surfaced just minutes before the draft was scheduled to begin.
Of course, there hasn't been any free agency period yet, which certainly impacts the needs of each team as well.
There's also plenty of time for some pick shuffling through trades, as we saw last year, and that certainly has an impact on who gets selected where, as well, but I'm assuming nothing changes and made my first set of predictions based on the current order.
Here are my latest revisions to the top 10.
1. Cleveland Browns: Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
Previous Pick: Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
Previous Analysis:
Rough year for them, and it starts with the fact that they could not keep a quarterback healthy for more than a week at a time. But there simply isn't an offensive lineman in this draft worthy of this pick. Speaking of quarterbacks, I don't think the Browns are ready to pull the plug on RG3 yet, and there's no can't-miss QB in this draft anyways. Browns go ahead and get the best player in this entire draft.
Unless something highly dramatic happens (knock on wood) in the next two months, I can't see this one changing at all.
2. San Francisco 49ers: Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
Previous Pick: Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
Previous Analysis:
Remember how I said there was no can't-miss quarterback in this draft? Well, it's hard to imagine San Francisco going anywhere else but quarterback with this pick, and if you ask me about the signal callers in this draft, it's Watson and then everyone else, and by a wide margin. Watson doesn't come without questions, though, but if you watch his tape from Clemson's National Championship victory over Alabama this year, there isn't much you can say to dispute him coming off the board here to a team that desperately needs a quarterback.
Many of the experts agree that it will be a quarterback here, but many of them are saying Mitch Trubisky from North Carolina. I just cannot see that happening. I stand by what I said last time about the quarterbacks being Watson and then everyone else.
3. Chicago Bears: Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
Previous Pick: Jonathan Allen, DE, Alabama
Previous Analysis:
Again, they could really use a quarterback here as I'm wondering if Jay Cutler's time in Chicago is coming to an end. But with Watson gone, it's not worth the pick here, especially when there's a defensive wrecking machine on the board waiting to be picked. Bears go best player available and they get a good one here.
The first shakeup. It appears I was right in the last version, as multiple outlets are now reporting that the Bears are actively shopping Jay Cutler. Should they ultimately not be able to find a partner (which I think they will based on the quality of some current starting quarterbacks in the league), he could still very well wind up being released outright. Either way, the takeaway from this is that the Bears are ready to move on, and doing so would leave them with two quarterbacks on the roster: Matt Barkley and David Fales. Not exactly an ideal scenario. As I've said time and time again, in the NFL your roster can be as good as you want but if you don't have a quarterback, you don't have a chance. I am honestly not very high on Trubisky and Allen is, in my opinion, a much safer pick at #3 overall than a guy who only started one year in college. But the way this is trending, I am really starting to believe that the Bears will take a quarterback, and if I'm forced to pick one, my gut tells me Trubisky is the next one to go.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jonathan Allen, DE, Alabama
Previous Pick: Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State
Previous Analysis:
Too early for a running back? I think not, as that trend was bucked last year with Ezekiel Elliot, and I'd say that turned out well. Cook's Orange Bowl performance coupled with the fact that TJ Yeldon and Chris Ivory can't hold onto the football and combined for 8 touchdowns this year tells you all you need to know.
I was very tempted to keep this one the same as the Jags' backfield really does leave much to be desired, but Allen is just too good to pass up.
5. Tennessee Titans (from Los Angeles Rams): Mike Williams, WR, Clemson
Previous Pick: Mike Williams, WR, Clemson
Previous Analysis:
The Titans showed a lot of improvement this year and at one point looked as though they could make the playoffs, but the lack of a true go-to, WR1 is limiting this offense's ceiling. Mariota gets a new toy to work with as Williams' performance in the National Championship solidifies him as the best wideout in the draft.
Leaving this one alone as there's something about it that just seems like a great fit to me. I think Williams is very undervalued and I think a great combine performance could skyrocket him up to where I have him. For now, I'm pegging this one as my bold pick of the top ten.
6. New York Jets: Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State
Previous Pick: Tim Williams, OLB, Alabama
Previous Analysis:
The Jets have one of the better defensive lines in the NFL, but they could really use some pass rush help from their outside linebackers. There are concerns about Williams' ability to be an every-down linebacker in the NFL as he has a reputation of being a bit of a one-trick pony, but I'm super high on him. And if the pony does its trick really, really, really well, then what's the issue? With some NFL coaching, Williams should be able to round out his game and I think he is being very undervalued in this draft, so I have him a lot higher than many others do.
Tim Williams is a tremendous player, but he comes with some serious off-field baggage, the extent of which I wasn't quite aware of when I did the first version. He earned a misdemeanor charge for carrying a pistol without a permit in September (during the season), but the more concerning news are the reports that Williams had failed multiple drug tests during his time at Alabama and that he has "very serious" substance abuse issues "in the realm of Dallas Cowboys defensive end Randy Gregory." Gregory, of course, had similar issues while in college at Nebraska, and those issues subsequently led to, as of right now, three separate suspensions in his professional career, the latest of which will keep him out of action for a whole calendar year. Needless to say, this kind of risk is nowhere near worth the sixth pick in the draft, so I'm giving the Jets a corner instead as I fully expect them to move on from Darrelle Revis sometime this offseason.
7. Los Angeles Chargers: Jamal Adams, S, LSU
Previous Pick: Jamal Adams, S, LSU
Previous Analysis:
The Chargers missed Eric Weddle like crazy this year, but here they have a great opportunity to fill that void with an elite athlete and playmaker at the safety position since the best wide receiver is already off the board.
I don't really have anything new to add here, though I think the gap between Adams and Malik Hooker is closer than many think.
8. Carolina Panthers: Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State
Previous Pick: Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama
Previous Analysis:
The Panthers have got to be disappointed with this season after they nearly won the Super Bowl last year. This team has a serious need for an offensive tackle and it is only the first step in getting their offense back on track.
The offensive line woes are there, yes, but the more I think about it, the more I convince myself that Robinson isn't worth the eighth pick in this draft. In these revisions, I have Dalvin Cook available here, and let's be honest, Jonathan Stewart is past his prime. The Panthers may be better suited to address the offensive line in free agency as there could be a real game-breaker available at this spot come draft time.
9. Cincinnati Bengals: Reuben Foster, ILB, Alabama
Previous Pick: Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee
Previous Analysis:
Marvin Lewis may be coaching for his job in 2017 and will be looking for immediate impact players on defense as a result, especially along the edges.
Keeping tabs on my division rivals, it sounds more and more like they will be showing Rey Maualuga the door shortly. Either way, they could certainly stand to get younger and more athletic at linebacker.
10. Buffalo Bills: DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame
Previous Pick: Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State
Previous Analysis:
No point in taking a wide receiver or offensive lineman here as they can get a much better player. Hooker is a rangy safety with elite ball skills, and he would be a welcome upgrade to the Bills' back end.
Since the first edition, it appears the Bills are very much against having Tyrod Taylor be their starting quarterback in the future. I'm of the opinion that the answer to that problem is not currently on the roster, so I'm thinking they'll be the third team to pull the trigger on a signal caller.