On Sunday, March 4th, the most important night in Hollywood will finally be here: the 90th Academy Awards. This year was one of the strongest and most diverse years in cinema in a while. It is one of the rare years, in my opinion, that all of the best picture nominees are vastly different films.
Yes, the annual biopics (Darkest Hour, The Post) have come around again, but they are joined by one of the world’s first so-called social thrillers (Get Out), two vastly different coming-of-age films (Call Me By Your Name, Lady Bird), a science fiction film about loving a water monster (The Shape of Water), and a plethora of other excellent films. It has been an awesome year for film, and I haven’t been this excited for the Oscars in a while. Below are my predictions for ten of the biggest categories:
Best Picture:
- Call Me By Your Name
- Darkest Hour
- Dunkirk
- Get Out
- Lady Bird
- Phantom Thread
- The Post
- The Shape of Water
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
While it is pretty clear that some films in this category just won’t end up standing a chance against the others, I would like to call out a few nominations that are particularly remarkable. The Oscars are recognizing small films more and more every year. The year after Moonlight, a three million dollar indie, won Best Picture, even more small films like Get Out, Call Me By Your Name, and Lady Bird are all nominated in several categories.
Other than that, all of the movies from this list that I have seen were outstanding to me, with the exception of Darkest Hour. Looking at the awards season so far, it’s pretty clear that Guillermo del Toro’s sci-fi drama The Shape of Water will end up winning the biggest award of the night, and it probably deserves it. Perhaps a sneak-up from Three Billboards is possible, but I doubt it. And if I had to choose, the award would go to Call Me By Your Name, a phenomenally well-acted and well-shot coming-of-age story and my favorite film of the year.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Call Me By Your Name
Best Director:
- Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
- Jordan Peele, Get Out
- Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
- Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
- Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
This category is one of my personal favorites. It once again shows just how different the directing feats of each of the five nominees are. Peele was able to play the audience like a violin in Get Out, and the movie displays just how well he can create tension. Paul Thomas Anderson shows off his versatility once again in Phantom Thread by creating a dazzling universe of precision and extravagance, and Greta Gerwig sets down an impressive directorial debut with Lady Bird.
This award is down to two people, though. It’s at least surprising that this is Christopher Nolan’s first nomination for directing, as he already has a nearly unmatched catalogue of movies. His masterful big-budget World War II film Dunkirk is full of tension and spectacular action sequences. The award will, however, probably go to Del Toro, who to my huge surprise has also just received his first ever directing nomination. The Shape of Water director has been gathering many of the big awards for directing this awards season, and I believe he’ll end up walking away with the Oscar, too.
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Could Win: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Best Actor in a Leading Role:
- Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
- Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
- Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
- Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
- Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
This category is a no-brainer. Gary Oldman has been receiving pretty much all of the major accolades for his performance as a younger, energetic Winston Churchill in Joe Wright’s biopic Darkest Hour. While Oldman goes through a complete metamorphosis in the film, he is not the most memorable performance of the year to me.
Instead, Timothée Chalamet, at just 22 years old now, deserves the award because he displayed just how generous, playful, and unfiltered he can be in Call Me By Your Name. His performance seemed entirely effortless, and his chemistry with co-star Armie Hammer was undeniably magnetic to me as an audience member. I fell absolutely in love with his performance, and that is why I believe he should win this award.
Will Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Best Actress in a Leading Role:
- Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
- Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
- Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
- Meryl Streep, The Post
Of all of the acting categories, this one is the most difficult to predict. While I loved both Meryl Streep’s and Margot Robbie’s respective performances, they definitely won’t end up winning this award. So it’s down to three other incredibly skilled actresses. Sally Hawkins was able to convey a thousand words through staying silent in The Shape of Water, but she probably won’t end up winning this award (although I have hope for her in the future).
Saoirse Ronan has a fair shot as a teenager confronting adult life, her friends, and her parents in Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird. However, this is award Frances McDormand’s to lose. McDormand plays one of the most memorable characters of the year in Three Billboards, and the ease with which she switches between determinate and vulnerable all while being just the right amount of nihilistic is astonishing.
Will Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Should Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
- Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
- Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
- Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
- Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
While Woody Harrelson and Richard Jenkins put down strong performances this year, they are not as significant or memorable as the other three in this category. Christopher Plummer gives an impressive performance that he had to prepare in no time for the reshoots of All the Money in the World.
In the end, however, it is down to Rockwell and Dafoe. While part of me really hopes for Willem Dafoe to win the Oscar (mainly as a kind of lifetime achievement award), Sam Rockwell really gave the best supporting performance of the year. His portrayal of a bigoted sheriff’s deputy in Three Billboards was comical, sincere, and above all daring. He deserves this award by far.
Will Win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Should Win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
- Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
- Allison Janney, I, Tonya
- Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
- Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
- Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
This category is another favorite of mine. All five actresses in this category gave performances ranging from solid to exceptional. Octavia Spencer has made Oscar history by becoming the first black actress to follow up an oscar win with two nominations, but she is probably not going to take home the statuette. Mary J. Blige is unrecognizable in Mudbound and gives a great performance as the matriarch of a cautious black household in Mississippi, but if there is one performance from that film that should be recognized, it’s Jason Mitchell’s.
Lesley Manville getting a nomination pleasantly surprised me; I cannot deny her greatness in Phantom Thread as the comically strict sister of New York’s most famous fashion designer. Ultimately, though, this race is down to the two mother figures. Laurie Metcalf gives a spectacular performance in Lady Bird and has a fair shot at winning this award, but in the end it will and should go to Allison Janney, who transforms into Tonya Harding’s ruthless mother. While Janney’s character is brutal and unsympathetic, I could tell Janney was having so much fun with her. That’s how you know someone loves what they do.
Will Win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Could Win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Should Win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Best Original Screenplay:
- Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
- Jordan Peele, Get Out
- Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
- Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
- Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Last year this award was given to Kenneth Lonergan for his heart-wrenching Manchester By the Sea screenplay, and if the Academy stays in a similar lane this year, established screenwriter and playwright Martin McDonagh will end up getting this award for his outrageously funny yet devastating screenplay for Three Billboards.
But if any of these writers revolutionized the definition of an Oscar film, it’s Jordan Peele. His innovative and clever Get Out script was the first step in the creation of one of the most impactful films of 2017, and perhaps the decade. If anyone deserves this award, it’s Jordan Peele.
Will Win: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Jordan Peele, Get Out
Should Win: Jordan Peele, Get Out
Best Adapted Screenplay:
- James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
- Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
- Scott Frank, James Mangold, and Michael Green, Logan
- Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game
- Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, Mudbound
I personally love this category. The diversity in films nominated in this category is awesome. From James Mangold’s final Wolverine film to James Franco’s passion project about Tommy Wiseau’s cult classic, all of these films had awesome screenplays. The one that stands out by far and away among the bunch, however, is James Ivory’s tender Call Me By Your Name screenplay.
From the amazing monologue delivered by Michael Stuhlbarg at the end of the film to the flirtatious interactions between Armie Hammer and Timothée Chalamet, Ivory’s script proves to be tactile and super naturalistic. He would also be the oldest Oscar winner ever if he were to win this award at 89 years old, and I’d gladly grant him that.
Will Win: James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
Could Win: Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game
Should Win: James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
Best Cinematography:
- Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
- Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour
- Hoyte Van Hoytema, Dunkirk
- Rachel Morrison, Mudbound
- Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water
Looking at all of the nominations The Shape of Water has received, it will probably end up winning this award. However, there are other notable achievements in cinematography in this category. Hoyte Van Hoytema works brilliantly with Christopher Nolan in Dunkirk to create stunning visuals using natural lighting. The standout among these five, however, is Roger Deakins, who received his 14th Best Cinematography nomination this year without ever having won in the past. Blade Runner 2049 is also by far the most visually stunning film of the year, and if anyone deserves this award, it’s Deakins.
Will Win: Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water
Could Win: Hoyte van Hoytema, Dunkirk
Should Win: Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
Best Original Score:
- Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
- Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
- Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
- John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
- Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I want to start this prediction by giving a quick shoutout to John Williams, who received his 51st Oscar nomination with The Last Jedi. Even though he is not going to win, his contribution to music continues to be more remarkable by the year. That being said, Alexandre Desplat will probably win for his score of The Shape of Water, but the composer who absolutely deserves this award is Jonny Greenwood. His elaborate, bombastic score to Phantom Thread perfectly set the atmosphere of the film, and its complexity amazed me as I was watching the movie. Jonny Greenwood absolutely deserves this award.
Will Win: Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
Could Win: Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
Should Win: Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
These were my 2018 Academy Award predictions! Make sure to tune in on March 4th to watch the ceremony and acknowledge 2017 as a fantastic year for cinema.