Week 4 is just around that time of year where fans across the country really get a taste of what their teams are made of and if they have any hopes of making a bowl game. The beauty of the first fourth of the season, however, is that it's never really indicative of the entire season. Plenty teams have salvaged disappointing starts and many more have let playoff hopes slip through their fingers.
We've essentially left the warmup portion of the season. Teams will typically play out of their conference for the first handful of games and save their conference opponents for the second half of the season. For instance, Missouri will play all conference opponents for five games straight to close out the season. Regardless, let's take a look at the first three games Mizzou has played thus far and derive some positives, some areas to improve and some hopes for the season.
Week 1 v.s. TN-Martin W (51-14)
All in all, this was a really good offensive performance for the Tigers. In all honesty, this was a game I expected us to win through and through and didn't pay as much attention as I should have considering I planned on writing these quarterly posts. Drew Lock threw for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns on 76 percent accuracy. The Tigers racked up 553 total yards with 394 of those attributed to passing. The Tigers committed no turnovers and kept penalties to a minimum, both of which were a detriment to the team last year. At this point, passing is definitely the focal point of the offense. This was pretty much the definition of a warmup game.
Week 2 v.s. Wyoming W (40-13)
I think I would have anticipated this game more if Josh Allen still played for Wyoming. The seventh pick in the 2018 NFL Draft lead Wyoming to an 8-5 record in 2017 with 16 touchdowns and 1,812 total yards. It would have been interesting to see how Mizzou's defense faired against a true NFL talent but that's somewhat the nature of college football. The big takeaway from this game was probably the efficiency on third down conversions (14/20) and the lack of interceptions. At this point, Drew Lock has yet to throw an interception which goes back to the "avoiding unnecessary defensive possessions" mentality.
Week 3 v.s. Purdue W (40-37)
This was an interesting game to analyze, considering we couldn't even score a touchdown when we played them last year. Purdue just happens to be one of those teams that we seem to always play poorly against, which worried me that Mizzou might drop this game. All things considered, we were setting ourselves up to lose considering our defense allowed Purdue's QB David Blough to throw for a school-record 572 yards. He was able to average 10.4 yards per attempt at 71 percent completion. Drew Lock was able to keep pace with Blough outside of yards, however, throwing three touchdown passes and an interception each. We were able to utilize the running game much more though, taking 46 attempts for 233 yards as opposed to the usual mid-20s.
At this current point in time, the Tigers average roughly 43 points per game and have been outscoring opponents by 67 points on the season. Am I as confident in our defense as I have been in years prior? Not necessarily, but that doesn't mean I don't trust them to make a stop when it counts. Our game plan now essentially revolves around out-pacing opponents with a go-for-broke passing game. Fun fact: Mizzou ranks 7th in Total Offense according to the NCAA at this point in the season and we're 15/16 inside the opponent's red zone.
As for the rest of the season, I think there are a handful of opponents that we played last year which we lost to because of either poor play or a series of bad calls and circumstances. For instance, I think we're perfectly capable of beating Kentucky, especially considering the game ended on an unfortunate refereeing sequence. My prediction: At worst, the Tigers will go 8-4 and at best 10-2 accounting for losses to Georgia and Alabama. I'd love to be proven wrong though.
