#NeverTrump Republicans spent a long time looking for a candidate to run against Donald Trump as an Independent. Prominent Republicans who are not satisfied with The Donald as their nominee have made attempts to sway former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney, Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse, and even Businessman Mark Cuban, to run for President as an Independent candidate. While many vocal opponents of both Trump and Clinton were contacted to run, none were willing to stand up and do so.
They finally found their guy, I guess.
Meet Evan McMullin, former CIA operative and U.S. House of Representatives Chief Policy Director. McMullin announced his candidacy for President as an Independent earlier this week on Morning Joe and has received some considerable media attention from major news networks such as ABC, Bloomberg, and the New York Times.
McMullin's website lays out his platform: strong on national security, interventionist foreign policy, pro–Second Amendment, pro-life, and anti–illegal immigration. He sounds like the perfect candidate for establishment Republicans and Conservatives who are part of the Never Trump crowd, doesn't he? Should his candidacy be taken as a serious threat to Trump and Clinton this November?
In short, no. McMullin's bid comes too little, too late.
McMullin's first issue is ballot access. Third party and Independent candidates in the United States face a large issue of ballot access in many states. Different states have different requirements for third party candidates to appear on the ballot, mainly consisting of petitioning for a certain number of valid signatures to appear in that state. Of the third parties in the United States, only one is expected to be on the ballot in all 50 states in 2016 (the Libertarian Party), and only one other is expected to be on the ballot in enough states to mathematically win the election (the Green Party, currently on the ballot in 27 states). Ballot access is already a difficult task for a non-Republican or non-Democrat candidate to accomplish. Unfortunately for McMullin, the deadlines to submit signatures has already passed in 26 states. In addition to this, McMullin would face an uphill battle to collect enough signatures to be on the ballot in all 24 of the remaining states, as their deadlines are quickly approaching. McMullin will almost certainly not be on the ballot in enough states to win the election.
Despite this, McMullin has launched his bid. Pundits have speculated that McMullin's true goal is only to win a few states, most specifically his home state of Utah. A Provo native and Brigham Young University alumnus, McMullin will likely look to campaign hard against Trump in his home state. A win in Utah would qualify McMullin to be selected by Congress as the President should no candidate reach the required 270 electoral votes to win. But even with his home-court advantage, McMullin faces a steep uphill battle.
In the most recent statewide poll in Utah, Trump leads Hillary Clinton, 37percent to 25 percent. Gary Johnson picks up an impressive 16 percent. In some parts of the state, the seemingly three-way race in Utah is much closer, such as in Mia Love's fourth Congressional District, has Trump at 29 percent, Clinton at 27 percent, and Johnson at 26 percent. This race does not leave much room for McMullin to impress. It seems that most Conservatives and Libertarian-minded Republicans have already either settled upon Trump, or have looked to Gary Johnson as the viable third party alternative.
McMullin's largest problem, however, is building name recognition this late in the race. Third party candidates are notorious for being unknowns on the ballots. Donald Trump has 10.8 million followers on Twitter. Hillary Clinton has 8.27 million followers. Evan McMullin? He has 38.2 thousand followers, or 0.0382 million. This is less than a tenthth of Gary Johnson and Jill Stein's combined follower total. In short, no one knows who Evan McMullin is. Johnson and Stein have been working on name recognition since their previous runs for President in 2012, and still are dwarfed by the major party candidates. If Johnson and Stein face little path to victory with their limited name recognition, McMullin is beyond doomed to lose the race. McMullin does not have enough time to build significant name recognition, and won't be a known name on the ballot this November.
In conclusion, Evan McMullin is running for President, I guess. The Never Trump movement has failed at finding an alternative to Donald Trump that has any chance to make an impact this November. Had McMullin launched his campaign earlier this year, he may have had a shot at being a volatile force in the election. This late in the race, however, he has no chance at reaching ballot access in enough states to win, and an equally bleak chance at earning enough name recognition to have a chance in those states. Republicans and Conservatives who aren't satisfied with Donald Trump would be better served to support Libertarian Gary Johnson this fall, or to focus simply on down-ballot races. Evan McMullin's campaign for President is little more than a novelty, despite the disproportionate amount of media coverage he has received. Despite McMullin's campaign slogan of "It's never too late to do the right thing," it appears it really may be too late for him to have any chance to win the election.
