Oscar season is upon us again, and it seems there are certain events that are all but guaranteed to occur. The host will say something unintentionally offensive to a given social group. Jennifer Lawrence will "accidentally" trip over herself. Leonardo DiCaprio will have been nominated for Best Actor, having portrayed a memorable character in an intensely difficult role to play.

This nomination comes around just about biannually for Leonardo DiCaprio, and yet, though he remains a singularly talented and versatile actor amongst our generations' stars, he manages to lose. He's the Cincinnati Bengals of the acting world, an unrelenting tour-de-force held back by seemingly little more than poor luck. This year, however, there's reason for more than just cautious optimism. DiCaprio has it this year. I can feel it. (Stop me if you've heard this before.)

"The Revenant," DiCaprio's most recent Oscar-worthy piece of cinema, was one of the more deeply intense films I've watched. Not intense in a "Django Unchained" or "Mad Max" in-your-face-gore sort of manner. "The Revenant" was not the type of movie that makes its bones in trying to get your heart to beat progressively faster. Rather, "The Revenant" reduces your heartbeat to a dull, ominous throbbing as you identify with the crushing pain and suffering endured by DiCaprio's Hugh Glass. What "The Revenant" lacked in dialogue it more than made up for through DiCaprio's grit and obvious dedication to the role.

The odds are in Leo's favor to take home Best Actor this year not only because of how fantastically he performed in "The Revenant," but because of the relative lack of momentum for the other candidates. According to IndieWire, "The only acting race with a full-on frontrunner that seems extremely unlikely to lose come Oscar night, best actor is all about Leonardo DiCaprio. You'd be unwise to think Leo won't be giving his first speech on the Oscars stage on February 28, for the only other contender with some critical support is Michael Fassbender, though even he is way back in second place."

It seems like the perfect storm, doesn't it? And yet, we've seen it all slip through DiCaprio's fingers before. Jeff Bridges won one over DiCaprio's "Inception" for "Crazy Heart."Jamie Foxx's "Ray" beat out "The Aviator." The fact that DiCaprio's depiction of psychotic slave-owner Calvin J Candie in "Django Unchained" wasn't even nominated still causes my soul considerable dismay. But "Crazy Heart" was a respectable performance, the win was understandable."Ray" was a great movie in its own right, and Jamie Foxx did a great job. None of the other films this year, at long last, are containing arguably better performances than DiCaprio's, and for that reason, at long last, we are going to see Leonardo DiCaprio come out with a much-deserved and well overdue win.

Unless, of course, he doesn't.