Politics is a game of secrets, but one of the best kept secrets surrounding the political arena pertains to voters and their choice to participate in an election. Examining a voter turnout graph reveals a spike in turnout every four years. Why? A presidential election, of course.
The media coverage, facade of importance, and other factors influence people to vote every four years. Despite all of the efforts to ensure every voter knows their vote will "change the election" and "influence it all" the truth is, your vote has a heck of a lot more influence in state and local elections than it ever will when voting in a presidential election. Although it can be more difficult to find information surrounding local elections, it is important to understand and share your voice.
So, in effort to help those who still have not realized there is a Senate race in Kentucky this fall, here's my attempt at a crash course for the election:
In theory, Congressional elections attempt to directly represent a much smaller group of people and offer voters a more direct opportunity to express their opinions, yet turnout drops by an average of twelve percent without a presidential election. Education, income, and age still greatly affect an individual’s decision to vote in congressional elections, but partisanship, incumbency, and name recognition were also “strongly linked” to how people voted in House and Senate elections.
Applying this analysis to a Senate race close to home provides some interesting insights. Scott Wartman’s article for Cincinnati News entitled, “Oh, there's a Kentucky Senate race: Five things you need to know” details Senator Rand Paul’s bid for reelection against Lexington Mayor Jim Gray. Drawing on partisanship, this article emphasizes that Kentucky has not voted Democrat since Bill Clinton won the state twenty years ago. Additionally, a Democratic senator has not served since 1992. Furthermore, especially considering the region’s reputation, it was believed Gray's openly gay sexuality would be a factor in the election. However, Wartman emphasizes that Gray’s sexuality would only be influential if the election were closer. In fact, “there are still thousands of voters who know nothing of Gray, including his personal life.”
The Kentucky Senate race this year is the textbook example of the importance of partisanship, incumbency, and recognition winning an election. Resulting from a presidential run and incumbent status, most Kentuckians will recognize Rand Paul on the ballot. As the Mayor of Lexington, Gray has a very specific, and limited, span of influence, and many Kentuckians are completely unfamiliar with him. Finally, Kentucky’s strong partisanship seems to support Paul.
