Heading into 2017, the Chicago Bulls find themselves tied for 9th place in the Eastern Conference of the NBA. After steadily declining throughout the season, optimism for the team has reached perhaps its lowest point. Fans, players, and coaches alike are frustrated with the team’s underperformance and have begun to lose patience. At times, the Bulls have shown flashes of brilliance such as their wins over the Cavaliers and Spurs. But these flashes are brief. One cannot help but wonder, after an eleven loss month of December, whether the Bulls are truly underperforming or if they are actually as bad as their record indicates. Certainly, a group of players as new to each other as these Bulls would not be expected to immediately develop chemistry; however, at nearly the midpoint of the season, more problems have been revealed than have been solved. Too much isolation on offense, weak bench play, fourth quarter woes, inconsistent defensive intensity, and the list goes on. Many pages can be dedicated to discussing these problems, but I would like to focus on one in particular.
Three-Point Shooting
The NBA has changed a lot in the last decade. In 2006, the Golden State Warriors averaged the most three-point attempts per game of any team— 24.0. Ten years later, the Houston Rockets average the most attempts— 39.6. This startling difference illustrates how the league has been trending.
This season, the Bulls are averaging a meager 20.2 three-point attempts per game, last in the NBA and almost two attempts fewer than the next closest team. The league is trending outward, and this team has remained inside the arc.
In part, the low attempt numbers can be attributed to the coaching philosophy of Fred Hoiberg and the rest of the Bulls coaching staff; however, I think they are more a result of the team’s personnel. Simply put, the Bulls do not have enough good three-point shooters. Chucking up more threes will not translate into more wins if the shots cannot be converted at a high enough rate. (In fact, the Bulls average just over one three-point attempt less in wins than in losses. This difference is not statistically significant, but it still is interesting). Once again, the Bulls find themselves at the bottom of the NBA in this category, shooting 31.2 percent from distance, nearly two percentage points behind the next closest team. The low attempt numbers reflect the team’s awareness of just how bad their shooting is from behind the arc. Apart from Doug McDermott and Jimmy Butler, nobody in the Bulls' daily rotation is even close to shooting a respectable mark of 35% from three. Consequently, defenses can sag into the paint, limiting driving lanes and passing angles. Without three-point shooting to space the floor, the offense labors for every shot.
This summer, when the Bulls signed Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade, many analysts pointed at the lack of three-point shooting as a flaw of the team’s construction. While the two new guards have improved their shooting from last year, they are far from demanding floor-spacing attention. And collectively, the three-point shooting of the Bulls has been woeful. So, in the words of former Arizona Cardinals head coach Dennis Green, "They are who we thought they were." They are a team hovering around the playoff boundary, imprisoned by the three-point arc.
Up until this point in the season, the Bulls have been extremely disappointing. However, disappointment cannot exist without expectation, without the potential for greatness. For all their flaws, the Bulls have plenty of talent, leadership, experience, and Jimmy Butler. A lack of three-point shooting is an impediment to success but does not ensure failure. 2017 has begun with three straight wins against quality teams, If the Bulls play to their strengths and work on improving fixable problems—unforced turnovers, offensive stagnation, and three-point shooting if possible—they have a legitimate chance to make a deep playoff run this spring.
Note: All statistics are taken from ESPN as of January 5th.
