The Eagles aren't a bad team. They aren't really a good team, or else they'd be in the playoffs. They're currently more of a middle-tier team, but they are very close to being a good team. The Eagles lost nine games this season, which is bad, but on average they lost each game by just over seven points (7.555...). That is a touchdown and a consistent Caleb Sturgis extra point away from a much closer ballgame. It does not take a wild and crazy level of analysis to know that the Eagles need help on offense, and that will likely be the focus of this offseason.
However, the Eagles defense has been a major source of confusion for fans this year. Going into the season, they were considered among the top-5 defenses to-be, and at times in the season, they showed it. Other times, they were picked apart. In the end, the Eagles allowed the 13th least yards in the NFL this season (better than Dallas), they were 13th best in passing yards allowed (better than Dallas), 15th best in rushing yards allowed (not better than Dallas, they were first, so they don't count), and 12th best in points allowed. Overall, that is pretty much a top-third defense in the NFL. Again, this is good, this isn't bad. But, it isn't top-5, and it could be.
Jim Schwartz should look to acquire more "fastball" edge-rushers, like Jevon Kearse from the Andy Reid era.
Jim Schwartz runs an attacking 4-3. He relies on dominant defensive line play, and to use an Andy Reid-era term, this means having "fastballs," a.k.a. guys like Jevon Kearse (back in the day) who could wreak havoc for the offense on every play. Schwartz has this in Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham, even if they don't consistently get the best sack statistics. Connor Barwin, Bennie Logan, and Vinny Curry have not shown that they can be "fastballs" quite yet, and my guess is that Vinny Curry has the best shot at actually growing into that role. It doesn't look like Connor Barwin and Bennie Logan will return to Philadelphia next season because of cap restrictions and Schwartz's defensive schemes, so the Eagles will be without another quality DT and DE. It is possible that Barwin returns, but I wouldn't expect him to be a starter if he did. Vinny Curry should expect to start next season, and the Eagles should make it a priority in the offseason to acquire at least two good "fastballs" to the roster. Other than Graham, Cox, Logan, Barwin, and Curry, the next most notable defensive lineman is 2014 first-round bust Marcus Smith, who adds average depth, but is not enough to maintain Schwartz's plan defensively.
Jordan Hicks, the "Cowboy Killer."
On the next level defensively, the Eagles are starting to show that they have some stud linebackers on the roster. Although he has made stupid mistakes off the field, Nigel Bradham has shown that he can remain a solid starter on the outside for the Eagles. Jordan Hicks, a.k.a. "Simba," a.k.a. "The Cowboy Killer" is the biggest playmaker on the defense, and a guy who can remain a starter and difference maker for years to come. Mychal Kendricks, however, has shown a decline in play over the last couple of seasons, and Jim Schwartz has kept him on the sideline enough this season to make fans wonder if Kendricks is on the trading block. Kendricks is an athletic linebacker who, at the start of his career, was much like Hicks in regard to causing turnovers. Nowadays the linebacker seems a bit distracted, and doesn't seem to play with the level of awareness or ability for Schwartz to find him a viable, consistent starter. I would not be surprised to see Howie Roseman, the Eagles GM, trade Kendricks for a draft pick in the coming months. As a result, the Eagles would now have a hole in the defense that they would have to address in the offseason, and I expect Roseman to be looking towards the draft for his next outside linebacker.
Jalen Mills, a seventh-round draft pick this past season, might have been the biggest source of enthusiasm for the Eagles secondary this year.
Here comes the worst culprits, the secondary. The Eagles have not had a dominant secondary unit since the days of Brian Dawkins, Lito Sheppard, Sheldon Brown, and Michael Lewis. For the first time since Dawkins left the team, the Eagles could have an elite safety tandem in Malcolm Jenkins and Rodney McLeod. Jenkins didn't have his usual turnover-happy season this year, but he remained a consistent player with little help on the outside. McLeod took the secondary by storm at the start of the season, but has taken criticism since that he let up on his aggression, leading to fewer turnovers. I expect these two to have a stronger season next year, as they should have improved help on the outside. Jalen Mills looks like he will become a consistent contributor in the secondary, showing that he could compete with some of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Nolan Carrol and Leodis McKelvin, however, were disappointing this year. Schwartz's defense depends on a very close partnership between the defensive line and the secondary: if the defensive line causes the immediate pressure it is supposed to, and if the secondary can keep receivers at bay for long enough that the quarterback is forced to act or be sacked, then the defense will flourish. The consistent issue this season with this system was that, although the Eagles line was causing enough pressure, the opposing quarterbacks didn't have to throw that many risky passes because their receivers could get open fast enough. This caused the safeties to have to play more conservatively, to make up for their flawed cornerbacks, which almost certainly led to Jenkins' drop in turnovers, and McLeod's eased aggressiveness. I would not be surprised, unfortunately, if the Eagles take a risk on a high-contract cornerback early in the offseason, hoping for a success story like Asante Samuel back in the day, or like Janoris Jenkins for the Giants this year. I would expect the Eagles to draft a cornerback within the first two of their picks in the upcoming draft, and to part ways with McKelvin. Nolan Carrol might be back next year, but I would not expect him to be in the starting lineup.
So, the plan for the offseason is pretty simple. The defense is already good, but it isn't great. Schwartz needs to acquire two cornerbacks that can develop into starters that can simply give the defensive line enough time to stress the quarterback, allowing Jenkins and McLeod to become the dominant tandem that they can be. The defensive line needs to continue to acquire "fastball" rushers, with the understanding that two solid defensive linemen will likely not return to the team next season. The linebacker corps will have the simplest fix: replace Mychal Kendricks.
As we established, the Eagles defense is actually really good, and it is only a few steps away from becoming elite. Schwartz and Roseman should feel very confident in planning to take these few steps, and should focus a few draft picks towards a corner or two, a pass-rusher, and a linebacker. Of these draft picks, really only one corner needs to be considered "starter-ready," and could simply be a second-round draft pick. Since the offense needs the most help this offseason, I expect a few draft picks to be aimed towards a wide receiver or two (hopefully in round one), a running back, and an offensive lineman or two. Howie Roseman is a wheeler and dealer, so I expect the Eagles to improve on their number of draft picks, as they are currently sitting on eight picks. Perhaps trading Mychal Kendricks for a fifth or even fourth round pick could set the Eagles up to acquire each of the needs I stated above, and that is before the free-agency period.
Howie Roseman has become a reliable GM, and Jim Schwartz is a smart man defensively. I believe that the Eagles are not far away from having a dominant defense like they did in the beginning of the Andy Reid-era. With a defense of that caliber, a new franchise quarterback, and a hopefully improved offense after this offseason, the Eagles could move quickly from having a good defense to a great defense, and from there, to playoff and Super Bowl contenders.