The Korean War is often called America’s forgotten war and for good reason. The war only last three years from 1950 to 1953 and was fought for ill-defined reasons in an unimportant backwater. Likewise the peace after the war was unsatisfying, leaving the status quo unchanged and only a glorified ceasefire keeping the peace. In popular culture, the war lacks the clear narrative and global scale of its predecessor WWII and created no great social controversy like it successor Vietnam did. Overall the war remains little more than vague knowledge to all but the men who fought there and the scholars who study them.
Before we go any further a short history of the Korean War is in order. Before WWII, Korea was a Japanese colony. After the Japanese surrender the peninsula was dividend in a communist client state in the north and an American client state in the south. In 1950, sensing a lull in American vigilance the communist north attacked the south to try and unify the peninsula. The Americans were caught by complete surprise and nearly driven off the peninsula until they mounted a surprise landing behind the communist’s lines and drove them back to the Chinese boarder. The Chinese, under Chairman Mao, were nervous about having American troops on their boarder and wished to prove themselves to the communist world as a worthy member. The Chinese launched a surprise attack and completely overwhelmed the Americans and drove them back down to the original boarder. The war then devolved into a stalemate pitting American firepower against Chinese numbers. Hostilities ended with the signing of an armistice and the battle lines became the new boarders.
To fully comprehend the folly of a new Korean war its necessary to look at the individual participants in the conflict and review how the first war affected them and how that would translate to a new war.
South Korea and other US allies
The modern democratic South Korea of today could not be any more opposite than the autocratic backwater that went to war in 1950. As an economic and technological powerhouse, South Korea could easily overwhelm its northern neighbor in a direct military conflict. However, there is an important weakness that South Korea possesses, its largest city and largest population center, Seoul, sits right on the boarder with North Korea within easy artillery range. Within a few hours of war being declared, Seoul would be reduced to rubble by artillery fire and millions would perish in a level of city destruction not seen since WWII. As if the prospect of death by shellfire wasn’t bad enough the north also possesses a stockpile of chemical and biological weapons that would kill thousands. There is also the certainty that the north would use nuclear weapons on its southern neighbor unleashing a holocaust not seen since Hiroshima. Though the south maintains a nearly overwhelming advantage materially over the north, it could never justify the human cost of starting another war and would suffer terribly if its ally and protector did so in its stead.
In addition to South Korea there is also the case of Japan to be considered. While Japan was not officially involved in the Korean war, as it was under American occupation, it still proved invaluable to the war effort as a protected staging ground and supply depot for American forces. While Japan is under no obligation to follow the US into an aggressive war (our alliance is defensive in nature) it is likely that they will be pulled into the conflict regardless. Likewise in an effort to strike at American bases North Korea would make Japan a target of its missile program potentially subjecting the island nation to a second nuclear holocaust.
North Korea
Of any of the nations involved none are poised to lose more than North Korea in a new conflict. The Hermit kingdom maintains one of the largest standing armies in the world with a formidable arsenal including weapons of mass destruction and yet it is a paper tiger. The north remains hopelessly outmatched by all of its neighbors and is barely tolerated by their closest ally China, only by waving its nuclear sabre around is it able to deter what it sees as foreign plots to destroy their country. An attack from the outside could swiftly subject to county to a swift bombardment and level most of its cities. The only real advantages for the country are one in a war for survival or a last stand casualties are meaningless and a fight to the death is assured and two the natural mountainous terrain of the country makes it ideal for staging a fierce defense. The American army ran into both of these advantages in the Korean War and paid a heavy price to overcome them. Indeed it was this first advantage that spawned the concept of never fighting a land war in Asia, as Asian armies were willing to endure losses that no sane westerner could ever stomach.
In the face of a conflict the complete destruction of North Korea is almost assured. The north possesses neither the manpower nor firepower to repel their enemies and a last minute Chinese intervention seems unlikely. Even if they use their ultimate weapon and go nuclear they will receive an overwhelming response form the US and its larger arsenal. However, while destruction is assured the cost of that destruction will be almost unimaginable.
China
China stands at an interesting position in the event of an outbreak of hostilities. On the one hand it is nominally the ally of North Korea and their comrade in arms in the quest for global proletariat liberation, one the other it is a major trading partner of North Koreas enemies particularly the United States. In 1950 the Chinese sent hundreds of thousands of troops to support their ally and repel the capitalist invaders today what they might do remains unclear. The Chinese fear of having American troops and a powerful American ally on their boarder still gives Chinese leaders pause especially as they flex their military muscles but a direct conflict with the United States would be vastly more destructive. Also the economic stain of a war would hurt the Chinese economy as Americans prioritize military spending over Chinese made consumer goods not to mention that China stands to be saddled with a refugee crisis as thousands of North Koreans flee war and a collapsing state. In a future conflict on the Korean peninsula China is the great unknown.
Russia
The Soviet Union remained only marginally involved with the Korean War providing arms and political leverage to the north without direct involvement. Russia today, under Putin, would likely use the distraction of a war to further their own interests at US expense. It is also no stretch of the imagination to see them perhaps covertly supporting the north to further weaken the US and prolong the conflict. Russia is perhaps the only involved party that stands to gain anything positive from the war.
The United States
Finally we come to the most important actor in this unfolding drama, the United States. The crisis with North Korea requires American leadership to have a cool head and steady hand; instead we have the most erratic and hot-tempered leadership in our history. Nominally there are positives to be gained from destroying North Korea, the Kim regime is one of the most oppressive in history and the North Korean state is infamous for its attempts to proliferate dangerous weapons to terrorists and other nations. However the positives stop abruptly when one considers the costs of the war to America. First, the expense of the war would be staggering to the US and would suck up progressively larger shares of the defense budget each year the conflict and reconstruction went on. Second, a war would diminish US capabilities around the globe as troops and materials as transferred from overseas to the Korean battlefront, into this void it would be easy for a nation like Russia to step in and assume power. Third it would significantly diminish US prestige and legitimacy as the world condemns a superpower picking a fight with a minor nation over a peacefully resolvable matter. Fourth the current willingness of US leaders to disregard the lives of the citizens of their allies would undermine US influence around the globe as longtime allies abandon US leadership for fear they will be used as cannonfoder for some pointless conflict. Fifth and finally the cost in American lives for this war would be grievous for comparatively little gain as one problem vanishes and a dozen more take its place. Any new conflict with North Korea would leave the US weaker and more isolated than its ever been without even counting the domestic political costs any conflict would incur. While the threat of a nuclear-armed North Korea that could hit US shores is troubling but it not world ending as the US has lived with the reality that enemy nations could use nukes since the Soviets tested their first nuclear bomb in 1949. It is import for the US not to overreact to threats and to chose the conflicts it engages in carefully.
From an analysis of the original Korean War many of the issues surrounding a future conflict become readily apparent. The only reason the current administration is even considering a second conflict in Korea is because of the almost insidious historical ignorance they possess about nearly everything, along with a callous disregard for human life. Compounding this failure of leadership is the general ignorance of the American people about the legacy and costs of Korean War and how they indicate what would likely happen in a future conflict. In this absence of knowledge the fact remains that any renewed conflict on the Korean peninsula would be catastrophic for everyone involved.
