It's that time of year again. The most wonderful time of year in which nearly eight months of smash-mouth trash-talking, copious research and endless hype culminate into a new fantasy football season. You know that reading fantasy football rankings can help to give you a guide to surviving your draft with a quality haul, but once your friends start taking players out of order and drafting based on favorite players things can get screwy and throw your whole strategy out of whack. With this in mind I joined a Yahoo! Live mock draft with other users to help prepare myself and my readers for the curveballs that come on draft day. Below I will detail my draft picks and my strategy behind each pick, and afterward I will give my thoughts on some of the most popular draft strategies and questions such as the 0RB strategy or the perpetual question of when to take a quarterback.
I received the fourth pick in the draft, and the mock draft that I participated in was for a twelve-team, PPR (point per reception) league with 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE and 1 Flex option.
1.4 David Johnson
The first three picks were Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and OBJ. While receivers hold added value over running backs in PPR and get hurt less-often than running backs, it was hard to say no to David Johnson’s upside. He was electric as a rookie last year when given starter-reps and is a threat to take kicks to the house on special teams. While he is an excellent runner, Johnson solidified himself as my pick because of his prowess when catching the ball. The guaranteed touches from handoffs and check-downs that will surely come his way were enough to sell me on this pick over players like Todd Gurley (poor surrounding talent) and Jamal Charles (injury concerns).
2.9 Brandon Marshall
With Devonta Freeman and Ezekiel Elliott both gone, I decided to go the receiver route and found comfort in the target-machine that is Brandon Marshall. Now that Ryan Fitzpatrick is returning to the Jets, Marshall will undoubtedly continue to rack up targets in a Jets offense that has little options outside of Decker and Forte. Marshall uses his size to his advantage and is a nightmare for opposing defenses in the red zone. Alshon Jeffery was a close second for this pick, but his injury history was enough to make me think twice about taking him.
3.4 T.Y. Hilton
Let’s get this out of the way and just say Andrew Luck had a bad year. Obviously playing with cracked ribs and a lacerated spleen isn’t going to allow you to play your best, so expect Luck to bounce back in a big way to demonstrate he deserves his new contract. This means a return to form in a big way for Hilton, who saw his numbers dip this past season and slipped in the draft because of it. A year ago there was talk of him being a first-round talent, so if you see him sitting here this late feel free to take advantage of the ignorance of others.
4.9 Aaron Rodgers
At this point, I would have really liked to have gone with a running back because I felt my receivers were strong and you can always wait on a quarterback that will give you top 5 fantasy production (see Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins, and Tyrod Taylor last season). With that being said, seeing Aaron Rodgers sitting on the board was too tempting to pass up. With Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb healthy again and Devante Adams showing-out in training camp right now Aaron Rodgers is looking for a bounce-back year. I’m buying in that he will take a return to near-MVP form and do very well for my team, and even perhaps become a valuable chip for solidifying the strength of my team at the midway point of the season. But more on that later.
5.4 Danny Woodhead
I would probably not give Woodhead higher than a Flex option or low-end RB2 grade in standard leagues, but in PPR leagues he is a weekly RB1. Keenan Allen has struggled to stay healthy, Stevie Johnson is now out for the season, Antonio Gates is declining, and Ladarius Green departed for Pittsburgh, which means there are a lot of targets to go around. Woodhead was used as a receiver out of the backfield and even in the slot at times. The Chargers love to get him the ball in space and that works heavily in his owner’s favor. Even if he has only 20 rushing yards and five catches for forty yards, he is still averaging a solid 11 points which is good production from an RB2 or flex option.
6.9 Julius Thomas
With only the tight end and flex positions remaining unfilled (besides defense and kicker) I decided to go tight end and select Julius Thomas because of the running back and receiving talent that was still left on the board. Julius Thomas was rated below Zach Ertz and Gary Barnidge (which with either quarterback situation I don’t quite understand) but with the Jaguar’s and particularly Blake Bortles’ development and increasing chemistry with Thomas, I felt reaching a bit was the right move. Thomas improved as the season went on last year and became a reliable security blanket for Bortles when Robinson was commanding double teams and Hurns occupied the top of the field. Because of the strength of my receiving core I feel that his floor will be more than enough and his ceiling could push me to potentially contend if the team stays healthy.
7.4 Gio Bernard
Gio had an underrated season last year while Jeremy Hill dominated the headlines with his struggles. Bernard happily picked up the slack and posted some career numbers in the process. He will be looking to prove his worth after his contract extension, and with Tyler Eifert missing games due to injury and the departure of both Sanu and Jones, Bernard could be due to a large uptick in targets in the passing game. That could lead to a large uptick in his fantasy value as well.
8.9 Marvin Jones
T.J. Yeldon was a tempting pick but with three RB’s on the roster already I felt I could add more value and depth to my receiving core. Reports have come out of camp suggesting that Jones is adjusting to the Lion’s offense very well and emerging as Stafford’s favorite target. Some have gone to say he has been the best receiver in camp and it isn’t even close. If he posts decent WR2 numbers at least in Detroit’s pass happy offense (5 catches 40 yards) he is still largely out-performing his draft position in the 8th or 9th round and offers even higher up-side.
9.4 Tyrod Taylor
This was just too good to pass up. Taylor was a top-5 scoring quarterback in fantasy last season and having McCoy and Watkins both healthy this year should do wonders to help him continue to make strides forward. Getting Taylor this late was a steal that paired with Aaron Rodgers could help to propel my team forward and help me tremendously down the stretch.
10.9 Sterling Shepard
Randle is probably the only receiver for the Giants that can stay healthy. Larry Donnell doesn’t miss too many games but Victor Cruz could go down at any moment. With that in mind, the glowing reviews on Sterling Shepard coming out of camp and the trust bestowed upon him by the coaching staff early in the preseason is a sign of things to come. He could end up being the WR2 in the offense by midseason which is why picking him this late is an extremely low-risk, high-reward play.
11.4 Jason Witten
The only way to explain how such a reliable tight end fell this far is the Tony Romo effect. Everyone always stays away from the players around Tony Romo because he will get hurt or blow the game and everyone around him will suffer. While Witten did have a down year last year, it was because Romo wasn’t taken care of properly when he was hurt and broke his collarbone again as a result which has now been strengthened by a plate, and also the backup quarterbacks couldn’t hit water falling out of a boat. Dak Prescott has already proven more capable than any of them. Getting him this late is an absurd bargain, so expect him to go higher in your drafts and plan accordingly. He is a stellar back-up tight end and nearly a week-to-week TE1
12.9 Derrick Henry
I’m a big fan of Henry but let’s be honest: these last two picks should be about handcuffs for injury that could end up paying off big. In this instance I’m betting that Demarco Murray will get hurt at some point and I can either take advantage by using Henry, or even better using him as a trade chip to the Murray owner to strengthen an area of need on my team.
13.4 Michael Thomas
This isn’t so much a handcuff as it is buying into the hype and hoping for a homerun. A receiving core desperate for playmakers led by Drew Brees is like playing with fire and Thomas is a barrel full of gunpowder. His size and smoothness while running remind me of the Thomas that caught passes for the superbowl-winning Denver Broncos not too long ago and he has been shining in the preseason and camp. If he continues to progress he could occupy the WR2 spot behind Cooks and provide nice flex value to my team or provide a needed boost to an opponent’s team whose receivers have suffered injury.
14.9 Cincinnati Bengals
Pick a good defense to the best of your ability, or the one with a good matchup in week one. Playing the waiver wire and match-ups is the best way to try and play the defensive position and never commit more than one roster spot to a defense.
15.4 Chandler Catanzaro
I picked the Cardinals kicker because I believe they will still be a high-powered offense that will find the red zone repeatedly offering Catanzaro opportunities to score.
The overall team then looked like:
Aaron Rodgers
David Johnson
Danny Woodhead
Brandon Marshall
T.Y. Hilton
Julius Thomas
Gio Bernard
Bengals Defense
Catanzaro
Bench:
Marvin Jones
Tyrod Taylor
Sterling Shepard
Jason Witten
Derrick Henry
Michael Thomas
The strategy of 0RB refers to waiting as long as possible to take a running back and the reasoning behind this is their weaker value in PPR leagues and the fact they get injured more often than wide receivers (who can rarely be touched without penalties being issued). However when you’re talking about elite running backs they are going to offer production that outmatches the benefits from taking a quarterback or tight end way too early. After round 5 the running backs start to thin out, so make sure you have at least two by round 7 or things could get rough.
The best way to go is honestly one of the simplest and most logical: take the best player available. Weigh out all the options, considering if they will be throwing or running the ball more, whether they have good relationships with their teammates, or have injury problems and ultimately trust your gut. Picking with your head will win you championships and picking with your heart will leave you on the outside looking in. This is exactly why I picked Aaron Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor. Both are excellent QB1’s and I will sit on both of them for at least 5 weeks. The reason is teams take time to get things to gel, and if you trade too soon you can end up with buyer’s remorse (case and point Lamar Miller was awful until week 5 last year, then was a top scoring back thereafter). I can then trade one of my quarterbacks that I have for another high-level running back or wide receiver that I may need to help fill a hole left by injury. Though you may have multiple players at each position, stacking assets will help you to compensate for the unforeseen injury that could otherwise ruin your season without a proper backup plan.
So there is all of the knowledge that I have to impart upon you at the moment. Take what advice you agree or appreciate and apply it to your own draft strategy. Disagree with it and call me an idiot whichever you choose is up to you. But for the love of God heed my warning and have a backup plan, or else you could be like I was last year, watching my juggernaut team turn to ashes before my eyes as Dion Lewis (ACL) Leveon Bell (ACL) and Justin Forsett (Broke Arm) all went down in a matter of weeks before my very eyes thus ending my season abruptly.
