It’s getting to be that time of year where you move into your dorm, start having to wake up for a class at 8 am, miss your mother's home cooking, and realize that you're about to dive further into the dark abyss that is known as student loan debt. It’s also the time of year when you can once again turn the TV on Saturdays and find something that is not a re-run of your favorite TV show that hasn’t aired for the past five years, in other words, anyone who is a fan of Friends or How I Met Your Mother understands this.
No, Saturdays now from here through the first weekend in December will be entirely college football. The marching bands, the student sections, the tailgating, and the overall passion and tradition at many of the programs across the country that separates college football from any other collegiate activity and its pro counterparts. The season looks to once again be one that is wide open in which around a dozen teams have an arguable preseason case to why they can be holding the trophy in Atlanta this January. So without further ado, here is how I see every major conference turning out and who is going to end up standing atop the college football universe once the playoff dust settles this winter.
There were many teams I could have gone with as my national champion. I thought about Penn State or Ohio State, but Penn State doesn’t force enough turnovers, get enough sacks, and I don’t think it has the overall manpower to grind it out in the trenches with the likes of Alabama, where as Ohio State does have this but I think its problems with an inexperienced secondary and wide receiver corps are being overlooked. Even Urban Meyer’s great recruiting I don’t think will be able to replace that much experience that they lost that quickly. Oklahoma is my Big 12 favorite, in part because they have a high powered offense led by Baker Mayfield and the best defense in the conference not called Texas. Having one of the top Big 12 defenses aren't saying much though, Oklahoma State could easily beat them in a shootout, if it’s defense wasn’t bad, and Oklahoma’s defense is going to show some weaknesses against USC and other high powered offenses.
Speaking of the Trojans, Sam Darnold is the best quarterback in the country, a gifted passer with a quick release, but I’m not confident in that defense outside of all conference players such as linebacker Cameron Smith and corner Iman Marshall to hold its own against my top two teams, Alabama and Florida State. The week one matchup in Atlanta is going to be a treat, and it is highly likely they meet up again there in January. Jalen Hurts is the best quarterback Saban has ever had, he can throw it deep and take off with his legs, as long as Hurts keeps the turnovers down, he could very well win the Heisman. Hurts is going to be assisted by another powerful run game led by Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris, both returners from a year ago, and Calvin Ridley is a major deep threat at receiver. They lose some talent in the front seven defensively, such as Jonathan Allen and Reuben Foster, and they won’t be as strong there as a year ago, but this is Alabama, and by the end of the year it won’t surprise me at all if this unit is rolling again behind Da’Shawn Hand, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, and linebacker Rashaan Evans.
The team with the most experience however and an equal amount of talent to challenge Alabama this season is Florida State, and that experience edge is why the Seminoles are my preseason number one and pick to win it all in 2017. On offense, having quarterback Deondre Francois back is going to help out a lot. Francois seemed to get better as the season progressed last year, and this year should take another leap as he takes more control of the offense. Francois could very well be a 4000-yard passer with about 30 touchdowns this year and should be aided by potential breakout star at receiver in Nyqwan Murray, and running backs Jacques Patrick and Cam Akers should both pick up right where Dalvin Cook left off in Tallahassee.
Where I really like the Seminoles, however, is on defense, where I think they have the potential to be the best in the country. They return nine starters from a year ago and have a deep defensive line. Josh Sweat is a terrific pass rusher and should be able to replace DeMarcus Walker off the edge, with some help from Brian Burns as well. Defensive tackle DeMarcus Christmas is a big, big man, and his size should come into good use against the likes of Alabama and Clemson. Linebacker is deep, with run stopper Matthew Thomas back to lead maybe the best linebacker unit in the country along with Jacob Pugh. There are a couple defensive backs they will need to replace, but all Americans Tarvarus McFadden and Derwin James should help with that. McFadden is a ball hawk, recording eight interceptions a year ago and will basically close down his whole side of the field on passing plays. James has the best odds of anyone nationally to win the Heisman from the defensive side of the ball. He’s a big hitter, big, fast, and versatile on defense with a knack for where the ball is at all times. The defense is going to be special and combined with a fairly good offense that should only get better as the season progresses, the Noles should be the favorite to deliver another title to Tallahassee.
Preseason Top 15:
- 1 Florida State- Francois is positioned for a special season, and Derwin James is in charge of the best defense in America. The offensive line is the only thing that could ruin this team's run at a title if they don’t end up gelling as a unit.
- Alabama- The offense is more loaded than last year, with Jalen Hurts back, Calvin Ridley, along with their top two backs and most of the offensive line. The secondary should be slightly better, and the front seven should be good even with a slight drop off from an extraordinary 2016
- Penn State- The Nittany Lions are back and with experience everywhere. Saquon Barkley is my Heisman front runner and the best running back in America, and another strong passing game led by Trace McSorley, along with a stout run stopping defense should guide them into the playoff.
- USC- Sam Darnold is going to be really, really good, hands down, and the might have the best air attack anywhere in America. If the defense exceeds my expectations and if Deontay Burnett can replace JuJu Schuster Smith rather easily, and if Clay Helton is indeed the answer at head coach, the Trojans might be looking at playing in Atlanta on a Monday night in January.
- Ohio State- This team could wind up in Atlanta as well. JT Barrett is a great dual threat, and Mike Weber should have a much bigger season at running back. Watch again for Nick Bosa to become a star off the edge, but there’s just too many questions at receiver and in the secondary for me to put them in the playoff right now.
- Oklahoma- The loss of Bob Stoops won’t hurt that much, as Lincoln Riley has been in the system for years. He inherits the best dual threat out there in Baker Mayfield, who now has Kentucky transfer Jeff Badet. The offensive line is great, and on defense, the team is going to be better, led by standout returners Jordan Thomas and Stephen Parker in the secondary. The defense will improve, but I don’t think it's where it needs to be to win the national title.
- Washington- The Huskies lost a chunk of talent, but return a good chunk as well. Jake Browning is a top five pocket passer, and Dante Pettis should be able to step into a bigger role on the outside at receiver this year after grabbing 15 touchdowns a year ago. Myles Gaskin is back after 1400 yards a year ago, and with Azeem Victor leading a team which returners seven starters on defense, they could very well win the conference again, and make it back into the playoff.
- Clemson- The defending national champions aren’t going to be near where they were last year, even with a good defense. They just lost too much on offense in DeShaun Watson and Mike Williams to be as good a unit again, but still, have a good offensive line led by Mitch Hyatt and a good speedster receiver in Deon Cain. Defensively this team will be really good up front. Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence are the best interior defensive line combo in America, and end Clelin Ferrell should be disruptive as well, and Van Smith and Ryan Carter are back at corner from a top secondary last year. If the offense can come along, the defensive talent would leave little doubt that this team could maybe upset Florida State and win the ACC again.
- Oklahoma State- The offense is really good again with Rudolph and wide receiver James Washington, but they're going to have to show me that they can play defense before I pick them to win the Big 12.
- Auburn- The Tigers are the Tide’s top competition in the SEC this season. Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham should not only help out in the passing game but give Gus Malzahn needed the stability that they haven’t had at quarterback since Nick Marshall. Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson are back to lead a powerful running attack behind an experienced offensive line. On defense six of the top seven tacklers are back including safety Tray Matthews and linebacker Tre Williams. Carl Lawson will be the biggest name to replace, and if they can do that and run the ball well again, they could have a shot at Alabama.
- Wisconsin- This team could be 12-0 going into the Big Ten championship in part due to schedule, the toughest game is home vs Michigan, but also because of talent. Alex Hornibrook doesn’t have to compete for time with Chris Houston, and with the returns of tight end Troy Fumagalli and receiver Jazz Peavy, a speedster on the outside, the passing game should be above average in Madison. Losing TJ Watt and now Jack Cichy to a torn ACL will hurt, but TJ Edwards is a good safety and they have enough back up front to help make up for Cichy’s absence to reach Indianapolis.
12.Georgia- The Bulldogs are my SEC sleeper for a reason if they can keep all American running back Nick Chubb healthy and on the field. Jacob Eason is a rising star and looks like a man who can command the pocket, the best quarterback they’ve had in Athens since Aaron Murray. The running game is going to be good again, but where I’m really excited is on defense. They have 10 starters back, including Trenton Thompson, edge rusher Lorenzo Carter, and linebacker Natrez Patrick. Combined with a better understanding of Kirby Smart’s great defensive scheme in year two, the sky could be the limit for Georgia.
13. LSU- Ed Orgeron has seemingly one over this team rather quickly since taking over for Les Miles and that should bode well in Baton Rouge. Derrius Guice is going to be a star. He ran for near 1500 a year ago with Leonard Fournette in the same backfield, something he won’t have to deal with this year. Danny Etling is back at quarterback but as we well know, the LSU situation at that position can go south at any time. Defensively, the team has the top edge linebacker prospect in Arden Key, who recorded double digit sacks a year ago, and Kevin Toliver is an exciting player at corner, but the other talent they have to replace at middle linebacker and finding the next Jamal Adams at safety could be to much.
14. Michigan- The Wolverines are going to be good, but a drop off is coming in Ann Arbor. They only return 4 offensive starters and one on defense, linebacker Mike McCray, and that inexperience is going to hurt against Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin. A loss to Florida week one is also possible. Chris Evans is going to be good at running back, he is fast and elusive where Devon Smith was more of a power back. Wilton Speight will likely be the starter, bringing back a good game manager from a year ago. While this is more of a build for a 2018 title run year, I’m still excited to see how Harbaugh and his staff are developing his first wave of recruiting classes, including former top prospect and now defensive end Rashan Gary, who could be the next big thing on the defensive line.
15. Louisville- Lamar Jackson. This kid has the athleticism and speed of a track star that the Cardinals have now turned into a Heisman winning quarterback who can throw. Jackson is quick and elusive and looks to make more strides in the pocket throwing the ball down the field this season. Outside of him, however, Louisville will need to replace a lot on both sides of the football but returns some quality players. Jaire Alexander is an all conference cornerback and should be aided on defense by top end Drew Bailey and a sack master at linebacker James Hearns. The offensive line is going to be revamped big time, but if Jackson doesn’t miss a step and the offensive line begins to gel quickly, this team could surprise again and potentially win the ACC with a much more experienced defense, I just think that the likes of Florida State are going to be too big, fast, and over power them this year, the Seminoles aren’t giving up 60 some points again.