The main narrative from both the Left and the Right after the election has been that Trump won because of the marginalization of the white working class. The argument goes that white workers who live in "flyover states" have been ignored by the liberal elite and they were thus seduced by Trump's bigotry.
It's very tempting to buy into this argument. It places all the blame for Trump on a faceless liberal elite and helps us come to grip with the fact that about half of this country voted for a man endorsed by the KKK. Except if you actually look at data from the election, it's pretty clear it's not true at all.
- Exit polls showed a broad range of white people voted for Trump.
- A Trump supporter's income is well-above the national average.
- There is no evidence to suggest the places that voted for Trump have been disproportionately disenfranchised economically.
- In fact, Trump did better in counties where economic conditions have actually improved in the last four years.
- Trump supporters actually don't have a lot of economic anxiety.
Conversely, multiple studies have shown that Trump supporters feel much more racial anxiety than the general population. One study found that racial anxiety was the most accurate way of determining whether someone was a Trump supporter.
Trump supporters also score much higher on racial resentment. A third of Trump supporters think Japanese internment was a good idea. There are other alarming statistics such as: 58 percent hold "unfavorable" views of Islam, 62 percent believe Obama is secretly a Muslim, around 50 percent view black people as more "criminal" and more "violent" than white people, over 30 percent think black people are less intelligent than whites. And perhaps most disturbingly, 20 percent disagree with the Emancipation Proclamation.
Plus, we've seen similar far-right candidates make a massive resurgence in Europe. These are countries with strong welfare states that are built to protect the working class. Yet, they are still drawn to openly racist candidates.
It's true that neo-liberalism (and capitalism, in general) have been complete disasters. Class is not something we should belittle. But making Trump's rise all about class ignores the fact that his racism was a central part of his appeal.
By all means, Trump should have lost. His campaign was completely incompetent. He got eviscerated in all of the debates. And perhaps most importantly, the man himself was clearly comically unprepared for the job.
Trump won because racism has always been the most powerful force in American politics. We live in a country built on stolen Native ground, with institutions, that were, quite literally, built on the backs of slaves. Almost everything about this country, from its electoral system to its criminal justice system, was built to uphold white supremacy.
Racism was the reason Nixon was elected president. It was why Reagan got broad popular support for his "War on Drugs" which disproportionately targeted black people. It was how Michael Dukakis lost a double digit lead to Bush in 1988. And it was how a candidate with no political experience, who was endorsed by the deadliest terrorist organization in U.S. history, won the presidency.
Racism was particularly useful in getting Trump elected. A lot of that is due to the specific time period we are living in.
In 2002, political scientist Roger Peterson published "Understanding Ethnic Violence," which became a foundational text for political scientists studying ethnic violence. He made the argument that "resentment" was the biggest driver of ethnic conflict. He argued that when a marginalized group begins to gain power, privileged people become very scared. This causes a high potential for ethnic violence.
Peterson also made the argument that while resentment lead to ethnic conflict in weak states, in strong states, privileged people tend to use the government to reestablish power. It is hard to look at what's going on in the U.S. along with Europe and not think of Peterson. While white supremacy is still very much alive, it is slowly starting to erode.
We have a black president. The white share of the vote is quickly declining. White people are on track to becoming a minority by 2045. There are more and more racial justice movements, like Black Lives Matter, that are pushing back against the racist status quo. Thus, as Peterson predicted, there has been a tremendous backlash. Trump saw that and took advantage of it.
But surely, not all Trump supporters are racists, right? Well, despite the common narrative about race in America, you don't have to consciously believe in white supremacy to be racist and then have that impact your voting calculus.
But if it's all about race, why did so many Trump supporters vote for Obama in 2012? Easy. There's evidence to suggest white people become more racist when reminded of their race. And race was not nearly as central of an issue in the 2012 election as it was in this election.
It's notoriously difficult to have conversations about race in America. Making Trump's victory all about class belittles the conversation about race, which is all the more necessary in Trump's America.
Does it feel good that half the country and the majority of white people, voted for a comically incompetent man just to uphold white supremacy? It shouldn't. But if we actually want to prevent what happened on Nov. 8, from happening again, it's a conversation we need to have.