The Republican National Convention was last week, and surprisingly, the biggest story there wasn't caused by Donald Trump, or his wife, Melania, who swears that her speech wasn't plagiarized (we know that it was).
It was Ted Cruz. Surprise!
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The Texas Senator, who was runner up for the Republican Presidential nomination, was supposed to give a speech on Day Three of the convention, pledging what I'm sure Republicans would love to have seen as "unwavering support" for the nominee. Unfortunately for them (and, I believe, fortunately for the Democratic ticket) this wasn't the case.
To simplify, Ted Cruz, when given this prime speaking slot, was expected to use this time to support not-good-guy Donald J. Trump, who I would use stronger, less flattering terms to describe, but out of a sense of weariness, and the fact that I've said it over and over again, I won't even bother. We all know what he is.
Anyways, Ted Cruz completely jumped ship with the whole "endorsement" business, and urged people to "vote their conscience." As I'm sure those of you who're aware know, this wasn't received well by Trump's supporters and a majority of the delegates that were there. He was barred from a potential ally's donor suite, and Trump upstaged him on Twitter by saying that his lack of an endorsement didn't matter.
On the contrary, I think that it mattered a lot.
First of all, we found out that Ted Cruz has a backbone, and it was put on full display that night. We found out later how rigid it was when he said that he wouldn't endorse the man who attacked his wife, father, and himself. Trump belittled the hell out of the Texas Senator during the primary, and many see this situation, especially the Trump camp, as an act of a selfish man who couldn't see past his own selfish reasoning.
Others are looking at this situation for what it appears to be, just under the surface. A deeply calculated political ploy, and this is the reasoning that I feel is correct. He did this for himself, definitely, but this is a guy who's a Senator at 45. He doesn't just act out of emotion. He's going to find a way to make this whole thing benefit himself.
Ted Cruz sees Donald Trump losing this election, and this speech is a sign of that belief. If Trump loses by a narrow margin (Door #1), then it's "Ted Cruz and Company's fault" for dividing the Republicans at a crucial time, which, to be fair, wouldn't be wrong. He's attempting to build himself a base that would allow him to gain some clout on the way to the 2020 Presidential race. However, if the race is lost narrowly, he can kiss that base goodbye.
Door #2 is a victory for the Republicans. If Trump wins, then this is short and simple. People will say "why the hell do we need Ted Cruz? He didn't endorse Trump and he won anyway, so what's he worth?"
Door #3, however, leads to reward. If Trump loses by a large margin, Cruz can say, "See? He wouldn't have won anyway, even if I did support him! I stood by my conservative principles!" This leads to a powerful movement, support for Cruz, and a path to the White House bedecked in Super-PAC funds and Bible-thumping Tea Party member contributions.
If anyone not named Ted Cruz could benefit from this, then it would be the Democrats. The die-hard Cruz supporters are now in limbo because their Supreme Leader went out and said "vote your conscience," which was heavily implied to say "don't vote for the orange man." Hillary Clinton posted a link after the speech leading to her website, with the caption saying (you guessed it) "vote your conscience."
Much like the demographic of Bernie Sanders supporters who refuse to vote for Hillary, there's a demographic of Ted Cruz supporters who may not vote for Trump. Again, we see something interesting. Perhaps Hillary could rouse the rabble into voting for her, claiming that she's the conscience vote. While unlikely, it could happen. However, the more likely option is that they go third party, and vote either Gary Johnson or Jill Stein, with more of the votes leaning towards Johnson. Thus, we have less votes going to Trump, and a chance for Hillary Clinton to bolster her own constituency with Republican defectors.
Ted Cruz, right now, is out on a limb, hoping (and most likely praying) that this all works out for the better. If the limb holds his weight, then he survives the election. If the limb breaks, he falls into a proverbial river, and he will be devoured by legions of angry piranhas wearing "Make America Great Again" hats and t-shirts. Only time will tell whether or not this will work out in Cruz's favor.
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If you want a more newspaper style coverage, CNN does a good job of it. The link is below. Stay informed, people.
