How many countries are there in the world? How many players are there in the NFL? How many bones are in the human hand? The answers are 195, 1696, and 27 respectively. But most people would answer “about 200, just over 1500, and around 30.” Society has an obsession with round numbers: the four-minute mile, the first 100 days in office, year 2000 – the list could continue.
Why do we have such an infatuation with round numbers? Is not the 101st day in office just as important as the 100th? The media swirls around nice numbers for a variety of reasons:
First, round numbers are easy to use. Any calculus student can tell you how ugly a problem can get when it lacks nice numbers. Second, round numbers are easy to say. In the news, it’s arduous to actually say “one million four hundred thirty thousand six hundred and twelve.” It’s easier to round it off. Thirdly, round numbers are easy to conceptualize. When I say, “1000 trees,” a ballpark estimate readily enters your head. Saying “964” doesn’t quite have the same effect.
Our focus on round numbers, however, might be distracting us from the underlying story of the statistics. The media is not lacking recent examples of this.
In sports, Manchester United recently became the first club to amass 2000 points in Premier League history. They also are a game away from win number 600. But this story hides the fact that the club is currently not in Champion’s league position and sits 17 points back of rival Chelsea.
A larger example is the Dow Jones Industrial average breaking 20000 points. Throughout the Trump rally, the Dow flirted with the 20000 line sending the media into a frenzy. While some found the hype utterly misinformed, others argued the milestone was psychologically important. Lost in this story was that the Dow was already at record highs, but the media waited until 20000 to open the Champagne.
Is this obsession with round numbers healthy?
In a sense it is. Round numbers make good goals and these goals push us to succeed. There is also tangible satisfaction in achieving a solid round number.
But we focus too much on round numbers. Economic insight reveals that changes happen at the margin. Small tinkers, not lofty round-number goals, make businesses successful. As noted above, round numbers can distract our attention from important statistics, an idea further developed in Scorecasting, a book analyzing data behind sports myths.
Finally, focusing on round numbers can be disappointing. In soccer, “juggling” means keeping the ball in the air using your feet, thighs, head, etc. My record is 4,239 touches before letting it touch the ground. When I got that record after more than a half hour of juggling, I was disappointed. I didn’t get 5,000 – a nice round number. But I had obliterated my previous record of under 3,000. Round numbers stole my joy.
One way for the reader to take this idea is that every record is just another number – nothing is special and we overemphasize randomly and mistakenly. But the opposite is true as well. Every number is special. We often ignore records if they come with ugly numbers, but these are just as important as glitzy round figures.
This is my 68th Odyssey article – not a sexy number, but a valuable number nonetheless, for in order to get to article #100, I have to write #68.
Cherish every moment, not just the milestones.
