Most of the writing I've done in the last ten years has been on a fictional universe of my own creation. It's shaping up to be my life's work, and I'm very proud of it. The story that I've written into it covers around 2,500 years, following a family through the ages from their world's equivalent of the Late Roman period all the way up to a science-fiction interstellar age. The entire project was inspired by my love of history, and I draw heavily from real-world events to flesh out the universe.

I was doing research for the beginning of the timeline recently, studying up on the factors which led to the Roman decline and collapse, when I noticed a bullet point that ticked my alarms: "Lead in the water supply". For a month or so this line sat at the back of my mind, festering. Something about it felt...off. My gut kept telling me something was wrong.

Around a week later I read an online update on the situation in Flint, Michigan, and realized where the gut feeling was coming from. The ensuing weeks I've spent reading up on current events and collapsing empires. Last week, a historian friend and I came to the conclusion that there were far too many parallels beyond the leaded water to dismiss.

The United States has entered its twilight years.

Even as I write this I feel like some sort of "The end is nigh" wacko, but to be completely honest I'm more fascinated than disturbed by the prospect of the collapse of the United States. I've always been interested in modern history, and this sure promises to be a doozy.

Contrary to the first article I had read, lead poisoning is not believed to be a major factor. Taking its place are a complicated combination of climate change, political infighting, failing infrastructure, and an overextended military.

Let’s start with climate change. It’s a well known fact that non-Roman “barbarians” swarmed over the borders of the dying Empire, but what few people know is that these weren’t intentional invasions. A gradually cooling climate forced nomadic tribes in Central Asia to migrate elsewhere in search of new grazing for their herds. These tribes forced other nomads out of their lands, who migrated in turn, creating a wave of migrations that eventually broke on the Roman Borders. The Romans had also been affected by the changing climate, with lowered crop yields inducing starvation in some parts of the empire. As a result, there were fewer citizens to garrison the immense borders.

Which brings us to military overextension. At its height the Roman Empire stretched from the Scottish Lowlands in the North to the fertile fields of North Africa in the South and from the Lusitanian coasts of Portugal in the West all the way to distant Mesopotamia in the East. By the time the migrations began, the Roman legions simply couldn’t patrol all their borders. This problem was compounded by their society’s xenophobic attitude and resultant unwillingness to incorporate the newly-arrived migrant tribes. The new arrivals, growing desperate from hunger, began to cross the borders by force. The Legions were the best-organized fighting force in the world, possibly even the best of all time, but they were faced with new tactics and techniques from their opponents that they were unable to adapt to. Parthian horse archers and armored “knights” made mincemeat of Imperial regiments through hit-and-run tactics, and Germanic tribes launched lightning ambushes from the trees before vanishing. Simply put, the Romans were unable to adapt quickly enough.

The third major factor came as a result of all the rest. Political disunity and a rapid turnover rate for emperors left the Empire handicapped, a problem compounded by the encroaching “barbarians” and failing crops. Infrastructure began to collapse and more and more people moved out of the cities to return to agrarian lifestyles. This in turn weakened government control further, eroding whatever power the incompetent emperors had left.

At this point the parallels should be obvious, but I’ll run them down all the same.

Climate change is happening. It is not a government myth, nor is it a minor inconvenience. In the case of the Romans, the climactic shift was gradual and natural, but in this instance the changing weather patterns and temperatures are accelerated and human-caused. We are already feeling their effects in the form of toxic algae blooms, powerful storms, flooding, and a variety of other natural disasters.

Military overextension perhaps defines US foreign policy over the last few decades. Since the 1950s the United States had been involving itself with distant, inconclusive wars that have achieved very little aside from erosion of public support and global opinion. Our military is the best in the world, but even the greatest legions stand little chance against uncatchable foes. Add in the ideas of certain leaders to deploy even more of our thinly-stretched forces to guard one of the largest land borders in the world, and overextension seems to be a possibility even for the most efficient logistical machine in the world.

Failing infrastructure can be seen everywhere. Our power grid wasn’t intended to last more than a few decades, and is in desperate need of replacement. Power outages are already common, and a well-placed cyber-attack could very easily cut off most power in the country. Water, too, is a serious issue. The crisis in Flint, Michigan has not ended. Indeed, even more towns and cities across the country are experiencing water shortages and quality issues. The United States has the highest standard of living in the world, and it seems that we take our basic necessities for granted.

Political infighting has also been a serious issue. The deadlock between the Executive and Legislative branches has left the Judicial branch with far too much influence, and the same leaders that should be dedicated to fixing the aforementioned crises tend to instead focus on reelection, placing the value of their careers over the value of the nation.

This all seems very nice and apocalyptic, but it isn’t too late to stop this decline, perhaps even reverse it. The Roman Empire was an absolute monarchy dressed in the trappings of Republic. The United States is a Republic dressed in the trappings of Democracy. Every citizen has the tool they need to change the country, a tool that the Romans lacked: a personal vote. By electing proper leaders and voting on proper issues, we can, as a nation, reverse our growing misfortune.

But perhaps we shouldn’t. Perhaps it’s time for us to follow in the imperial footsteps of our predecessors and step down from the throne of the world and allow new countries to take our place. It is, of course, the way of history to favor the new over the old. Rome was succeeded by the Merovingians, who passed the yoke to Charlemagne and his Francian Empire. Spain and Portugal yielded dominance to Germany, France, and Britain. Britain handed down the laurels to us. Maybe, just maybe, it’s our turn to follow suit.

In the words of Camille Paglia, “The Earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”