In September, Speaker of the House John Boehner did the unthinkable when he announced he would be resigning from Congress, becoming the first Speaker since 1986 to leave the position on his own terms. His exact reasons for doing so have yet to be made perfectly clear, but his resignation likely has to do with the factitiousness of the Republican Party and the pressure that he faced from the far-right.
Boehner’s presumed successor was Kevin McCarthy, a representative from California with virtually no legislative record. Seriously. The two pieces of “legislation” that he’s passed renamed a post office and a flight training center. They both, of course, were unopposed in the House and were therefore passed with relative ease, so it isn’t as if they show McCarthy’s political prowess. When Boehner resigned, McCarthy, house majority leader, seemed like his logical successor. Although he didn’t have an extensive record of passing important legislation, his reputation was fairly neutral.
McCarthy’s lack of a reputation was short-lived. Just a few days after Boehner resigned, he had an interview with Fox News and basically admitted that the Benghazi committee was created to deter Hillary Clinton’s presidential candidacy rather than to protect national security. Of course, his party saw this as a disastrous move because of the leverage it gives Clinton.
McCarthy has also recently been criticized by some (MSNBC, for example) after stumbling through a speech. His words were jumbled and he seemed unable to get a coherent sentence out. Now, I don’t think that this necessarily makes McCarthy a bad politician, or that it makes him less intelligent than anyone else. However, the Speaker of the House should have strong public speaking skills, and should present information clearly so it is not misconstrued; I think that this would’ve hurt his success had he won the position. On Oct. 8, McCarthy announced that he would not be seeking the Speaker position.
So, where does this leave the Republican Party? There is no clear shoe-in for Speaker now, and Boehner has actually said that he will remain in his position until a replacement is found, rather than leave at the end of October like he had originally planned. It’s interesting to consider the implications that this entire situation could have for the Republicans going into the 2016 election.
Looking at the short term, there’s the issue of a budget. The government narrowly avoided a 2013-esque shutdown by passing a continuing resolution the night of Sept. 30. This essentially stated that until Dec. 11, all government programs would receive the same amount of funding that they did for the previous fiscal year. The person who takes over Boehner’s position will significantly impact December’s events. If the new speaker falls further to the right than Boehner, he or she will be less willing to compromise with the left, and we will more likely than not be faced with another shutdown.
If this happens, it will likely have a negative impact on the Republicans in the 2016 election. They will probably be viewed as largely responsible for the shutdown, and their reputation with the general public will be damaged. However, I should note that it’s so early in the election season that these events could end up having no net effect on the outcome. It will surely be interesting to see how they pan out.
