Look — up in the sky! It’s a bird! It’s a plane! No, it’s former Democratic President of the United States, Bill Clinton! And he’s not alone. He’s joined by 718 other prominent Democrats from all over the country and together they form… The Superdelegates! Or at least, they are the ones who will cast their superdelegate vote for a candidate of their choice at the Democratic National Convention this July. Since superdelegate votes account for 15 percent of the of the overall convention votes, it’s important to understand how they function and to recognize their impact on the nomination process.
Regular delegates are awarded by proportions of votes within the Democratic Party at state voting conventions, either as a caucus or primary. After a state holds their convention for voting, elected delegates cast their delegate vote and are likely to represent their constituents. Aside from the fact that it is their obligation to adhere to their constituents, it is uncommon for these representative politicians to go against the majority of the voters as they are likely going to be seeking re-election at some point in the future.
Individuals who get to cast a superdelegate vote, however, have no constituents to which they are obligated to adhere to. The list of individuals who have a superdelegate vote to cast consists of 434 elected members of the Democratic National Committee, 193 Democratic members of the House of Representatives, 46 Democratic Senate members, 21 Democratic governors and 20 distinguished party leaders. These party leaders can be former presidents and vice presidents, congressional leaders, DNC chairs, etc. That’s a lot of influential donkeys.
And it’s no surprise that the vast majority of superdelegates have been leaning heavily toward Clinton. The name “Clinton” alone is enough to carry some hefty weight in the Democratic Party. Sanders just doesn’t have roots in the Democratic Party nearly as deep as Clinton, and that’s essentially why the estimated superdelegate count is 469 to 31 in Clinton’s favor as of April 10, 2016.
Of course, none of these numbers are official until the Democratic National Convention takes place this July. Technically, all superdelegate votes could shift to Sanders in the last minute. Technically. And it seems that Sanders’ supporters are invested in the hypothesis that he can win a majority of the popular vote and convince those with a superdelegate vote to take his side. I say don’t count on it.
A total of 2,383 delegates need to be accumulated for a candidate to clinch the nomination. As it currently stands on the Democratic side of the race, Hillary Clinton has a sizable lead at 1,287 delegates to Sanders’ 1,037. Factor in the latest superdelegate numbers and we’re left with an an astonishingly large differential— Clinton's 1,756 to Sanders' 1,068.
Yes, it may seem like Sanders has some campaign momentum right now, having won eight of the last nine contests. But he isn’t winning by big enough margins and the demographics of future states with large amounts of delegates up for grabs largely favor Clinton. Remember, delegates are awarded proportionally and unless he starts winning by huge numbers, he won’t close the gap and without closing that gap, it’s hard to give any weight to the already impractical idea that superdelegates will shift their vote. It was a good run, but we’re lining up the final nail in the Sanders-for-President coffin. Perhaps it’s best to save your $7 campaign donation and put it in a college fund at this point.
