Over the past few days, the American political sphere has been rocked by yet another revelation in the Hillary Clinton email saga. The FBI announced on Friday that it has discovered new emails and had plans to investigate their contents further, in essence continuing the already open investigation into Clinton's private email server that she used while Secretary of State. Normally this story would have barely been a blip on our radar, but it emerged as the perfect scandal to break the prevailing theory that Clinton is coasting to victory, essentially throwing the election into disarray. Partisans on both sides of the aisle have used to new information as an example of either the corruption of Clinton or the irresponsibility of the FBI. So it is worth taking a closer look at what’s happened over the past few days and how it may impact the last few days of the 2016 Presidential election.
On Friday, October 28th the FBI announced that they had discovered new emails and were examining whether they were relevant to the summer investigation of Clinton’s use of a private email server. The discovery of these emails prompted FBI investigators to look into whether or not these emails contained mishandled or improperly handled classified information. Apparently, these new emails could number in the thousands and were apparently found on a laptop belonging to the former notorious New York Congressmen Anthony Weiner (NY-9, D) and his wife Huma Abedin, a close personal friend and confidant to Hillary Clinton. These emails were discovered not as part of the summer investigation into Clinton's email but actually as part of an entirely different investigation into former Rep. Weiner’s supposed sexting with a minor.
The emails came from one of Huma Abedin’s several email accounts, which was linked to her husband’s email account, which is how the FBI came across them in the first place. The relevant question is whether any of these emails contain classified information (at this point the prevailing idea is that nothing was classified, but there has been no official investigation to that effect). Even if it was found that there was classified information in those emails, the FBI would still have to prove that she intended to disclose the classified information or that she knowingly mishandled the emails.
Director Comey’s letter to Congress on Friday night was only a mere three paragraphs. He informed Congress that the new emails that came to light “appeared to be pertinent” to the FBI’s previous investigation, stating that the FBI was currently trying to “determine whether they contain classified information,” and that his investigators “cannot yet assess whether the material may or may not be significant.”
Almost immediately after this letter was released it received backlash from both sides of the political spectrum, with both Democrats and Republicans calling for more information and for Director Comey to immediately clarify his statements. His initial three-paragraph statement told us almost nothing about what the emails were, where they came from, how they related to the previous investigation, or whether he has personally reviewed them.
Director Comey’s choice to release this information was by no means an easy one, and he has faced significant pushback from the Justice Department, former federal prosecutors, and FBI investigators for deciding to release the information just 11 days before a major election. Officials from the Justice Department were reportedly furious at his decision, seeing it as a violation of a near-sacred Justice Department policy of not commenting on ongoing investigations or interfering with any elections or the political process. The perception is that Director Comey jumped the gun, making his announcement before the FBI even understood what it had, and choosing to release that information in a cryptic, vague letter that has led to a firestorm of unwanted speculation and controversy. Apparently, these very concerns were expressed to Director Comey by Attorney General Loretta Lynch and Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates via aides and staffers, who stressed that there is a longstanding policy of not commenting on politically sensitive investigations within 60 days of an election. DOJ staffers did not sign off on his decision, and he apparently did not even consult with them.
By all accounts Director Comey was in an impossible situation, stuck between prematurely announcing the investigation into Clinton and facing the ire of the left and potentially altering the outcome of the Presidential election on one hand, while also facing the wrath of the right and potentially keeping important information under wraps and risking the impression of a cover-up.
But let's move on to the content of the emails themselves. As of right now, we know very little about these new emails but some facts have emerged. Many of the emails appear to be duplicates from the already-reviewed private server, though at least some of them may be unique (though now new reports are claiming that all of the emails may actually be duplicates). There is no indication that any of the emails were actually withheld by Clinton during previous investigations, and there is nothing in the emails that suggests that Clinton has done anything illegal. In fact, none of the emails were even sent to or from Clinton, they were predominantly to and from Huma Abedin, though some did discuss Clinton or referred to her secondhand.
It is also important to note that, contrary to media headlines, the FBI is not actually reopening its investigation into Clinton’s emails. Investigations of this sort are never actually closed, as a practical matter, and are always open to new information discovered by law enforcement. At this point, the FBI is only looking into this new evidence to determine if it changes anything from their previous investigation. Director Comey himself has suggested that these emails may contain no relevant information and that this whole situation may pan out into nothing.
At any other time, this story would have been ignored by almost everyone as a procedural announcement or a minor event, but if there is one thing that 2016 has shown, it is that this is not a normal year, and certainly not a normal election. Up until Friday the prevailing theory was that Clinton was coasting to victory, but that theory now has begun to rapidly disintegrate. We won’t know the actual impact of Comey's announcement for a few days when new polls will be able to gauge any loss of support, but it is clear that she will take at least some sort of hit. Previous revelations about her email account earlier in the campaign led to some fairly significant poll deficits. A recent poll released on Sunday showed that 67% of respondents said that the FBI's announcement made no difference on whether they would vote for Clinton. The poll did not actually specify whether voters were already planning on voting for Clinton before the Friday’s revelations, but it is fair to assume that Clinton will continue to take hits on this issue throughout the final days of the election.
The announcement by Director Comey may not change the outcome of the election but it certainly throws a wrench into the final few weeks, casting doubt on what was once considered a sure thing. And with only a handful of days left in the campaign Clinton can’t afford any missteps.
