1. Georgia (13-0)
The clear and obvious favorite to not only make the playoffs, but go all the way. The national championship is Georgia's to lose at this point, and feasibly could only lose to Alabama in the SEC championship, although I believe that they will win inevitably. They are essentially a lock to make the playoffs even with a loss at this point, but their defense will stop anyone that tries to upset them regardless.
2. Ohio State (12-1)Â
After beating Michigan State and Michigan, Ohio State will make the playoffs - proceeding to the Big 10 championship and taking the crown. After playing the next two weeks, Ohio State will have two solid games (and wins), which will propel them past anyone else minus Oregon without a loss or Alabama with SEC bias. But I still believe a one-loss Ohio State will have a resumé better than both Cincinnati and Alabama at the end of the day. The Buckeyes have made strides at the back end of the season to get better and should keep progressing with CJ Stroud at the helm until they can get to Indianapolis.
3. Cincinnati (13-0)
I am of the firm belief that Cincinnati was dealt a bad hand when it came to the rankings up until this point. But, with an Alabama loss in the SEC championship game, it would be very difficult not to include the Bearcats as one of the best four teams in the country. They do have a signature win against Notre Dame and have proven their might in the face of adversity. I truly believe that this is the year for the group of five to have their first team in the playoffs. If Cincy can go undefeated, they should be in.
4. Alabama (11-2)
SEC bias in the CFP committee is as real as it gets. Alabama does not have a signature win on their resumé (if you don't count Ole Miss) and (to this point) had a bad loss to an unranked Texas A&M team. I do not believe that 'Bama will lose to Arkansas or Auburn in their next two upcoming games, but will lose to Georgia in the SEC championship game. In my heart, I believe that a two-loss Alabama team should not be ranked ahead of a two-loss Oregon or one-loss Notre Dame due to their inconsistencies late in the season, but the committee will always pick the SEC school. It would be a shame to see Alabama and Georgia play in the SEC championship and then again in the playoffs, and no one would complain about new teams getting in more consistently. Still, SEC bias is real, and Alabama will get in because of it.
5. Oregon (11-2)
Out of the four teams ranked 2-6 on this list, Oregon has the best win, but at the same time, has the worst loss. The PAC-12 is notorious for not matching up well against other conferences based on its teams, and Oregon will inevitably suffer from it. I have Oregon losing in the PAC-12 championship. They face Utah this week and may play them again in the title game, and I see Utah figuring Oregon out in their two meetings. SEC bias will always reign supreme in college football, and even though Oregon beat my number two team in the country, they will be left out because of their loss to Stanford.
6. Notre Dame (11-1)
Notre Dame lacks the signature win. Their best win was over a mediocre UNC team that severely lacked compared to their expectations. Notre Dame played one ranked team and lost (Cincy), and that is probably their biggest reason as to why they won't make it, in my opinion. I feel as if the committee will easily value Alabama and Oregon's two losses over Notre Dame's one. No conference championship hurts in the long run.
7.Wake Forest (12-1)
The ACC isn't what it normally is this year – had Wake stayed undefeated with a quality win over Pittsburgh in the ACC championship… they would have been real contenders. But unfortunately, that will not happen. A whole lot would have to occur for Wake Forest to get in at this point, but they do have a matchup against Clemson this week. It would be an amazing game any other year, but Wake can prove its presence with a solid win.
8. Baylor (11-2)
A one-loss, Big 12 champion Baylor team with a signature win against an undefeated Oklahoma feasibly should be enough to get them into the playoff. But, their win came only one week after losing to an unranked TCU couple with another loss against Oklahoma State. I think the Bears will slide right into the Big 12 championship if Oklahoma State can defeat their inner state rivals, and I would have Baylor winning that game to leapfrog up to 8th. The Big 12 has suffered this year, but with the acquisition of Cincinnati next year along with the other AAC teams, it should be right back where it belongs.
9. Ole Miss (10-2)
Ole Miss is a solid team, but they will make the top 10 seemingly by default. Losing in the last few weeks is huge for rankings, and I can't see Ole Miss dropping a game to either Vandy or Mississippi State. Unless Alabama drops their last two games (which won't happen), Ole Miss will not make the SEC championship. But, more than likely Michigan State will lose, Michigan will lose, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State will lose, etc.
10. Michigan State (10-2)
How Michigan is ranked above Michigan State right now is downright blasphemous. Both will lose to Ohio State, but Michigan State deserves to be ranked over Michigan. It brings into question whether the committee actually watches football sometimes.
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