Ah, the Academy Awards. For film and performance geeks like me, this is my Super Bowl. I mean that, though. I spend copious amounts of hard-earned cash money on as many Ruffles as my stomach can hold, countless types of dips (seven layers or otherwise), and a sense of camaraderie. But, this also leads to arguments about who will, who should, and who might win. Eat your heart out, Entertainment Weekly.
Nominated for Best Picture
Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight.
Who Will Win: La La Land
Who Should Win: Moonlight
Who Might Win: Manchester by the Sea
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I'm gonna be honest here; this really is La La Land's race to lose. The Golden Globes loved them by giving them a record 7 Golden Globes; it's the frontrunner for the SAG Awards and it's a critical darling. Moonlight, on the other hand, is the one film that I believe should win. It is the movie that has critics all talking and the one that really has been a game changer in the cinema this year. Its social message is one that is so prevalent in this society now and while La La Land is fantastic escapism, sometimes a reality check like Moonlight is necessary and needed.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Who Will Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Who Should Win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Who Might Win: Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Denzel should win. This should be a no-brainer. His performance in Fences (as shown on Broadway and on screen) is of nuance and of power. Yes, Casey Affleck won the Golden Globe and is the front runner for this prize, but he's also a dick of a human being. Denzel isn't. I know the Oscars are about recognizing film and someone's achievements in films, but I think what is equally important is their contribution to the world around them, and Denzel does that in spades.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Who Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Who Should Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Who Might Win: Natalie Portman, Jackie
I want to start this out by saying that I, like every other person ever (sans a few, but we don't talk about them), think that Meryl Streep is a national freaking treasure and deserves every award under the sun. But, that being said, Emma Stone is the clear frontrunner for this award this season. With a SAG Award and a Golden Globe under her belt, her category is the one that could lead to the biggest upset of the season, with Natalie Portman's incredibly nuanced turn as First Lady Jackie Kennedy as Stone's only competition.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Who Should Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Who Might Win: Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
From House of Cards to Oscar nominee, Mahershala Ali's turn in Moonlight is exactly the kind of supporting role that deserves an Oscar. It's heartbreaking, courageous, powerful, and lovely. Just lovely. His only "real" competition is Hedges, who also gave a heartbreaking turn in Manchester by the Sea, but Ali is going to emerge victoriously this season.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Who Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Who Should Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Who Might Win: No one, cause Viola Davis, Fences
Viola has suffered the DiCaprio Curse for YEARS, and now, it's finally Viola's turn to take home the gold. She won a Tony Award for her turn in Fences the last time it was on Broadway, and now, in the stunning rendition of this beautiful American masterpiece of a play directed by Denzel Washington, Viola gives the performance of her lifetime.
Best Director
Denis Villenueve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Who Will Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Who Should Win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Who Might Win: Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land was a gorgeously shot film. From start to finish, it reminded me of movie musicals of old. But. Fences was much braver. Denzel did not get a nomination for Best Director, which is a crying shame cause he made giant strides as a performer to get that film version of Fences on stage as well as to honor the work and the love that August Wilson put in his plays. Chazelle will win, hands down. Washington should win, absolutely. But, the Oscars are known for giving this coveted prize to directors who have won it before (looking at you, Ang Lee), completely shocking the general public.
These are just my predictions, but I want to see all of yours! Who will take home the most coveted prize in film on February 26th? Who knows?
